In 2025, one of the standout outperformances in Irish commercial property came from the sale of the Trinity Collection, comprising three retail parks in Clonmel, Drogheda and Belgard Road. The portfolio sold in the second quarter for €123.5 million, a 67 per cent premium on the €74.1 million paid in the final quarter of 2021, just three and a half years earlier.
While MSCI’s capital growth index shows all retail assets declined by 16.8 per cent and the broader market fell 22 per cent over the same period, the Trinity story was different. It illustrates how a clear understanding of market fundamentals, paired with targeted asset management, can drive exceptional returns.
Before this was broadly recognised, some investors had identified that Irish retail parks were trading near full occupancy and had shown resilience throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. With limited new supply, constrained by construction costs exceeding achievable rents, and national occupancy around 97 per cent, rents began to grow. Net operating income for the Trinity portfolio rose by 31.5 per cent, with some units increasing from €10 to €15 per sq ft annually. As rental reversion became visible, yields tightened sharply from 8.50 per cent to 6.75 per cent, a 175-basis point shift.
That leads to the key question: what will be the next Trinity?
Retail remains part of the answer. Following a sharp pandemic-era repricing, sentiment has improved. Prime Grafton Street rents have risen from €437 Zone A per sq ft post-Covid to €510 today, with vacancy now largely confined to off-pitch space. Prime yields have compressed from 5.25 per cent to 5.0 per cent, with some transactions reportedly below that.
Shopping centres in particular offer compelling value. The Blanchardstown Centre traded for €565 million in 2024, about €50 million in annual income, a 68 per cent discount to its €950 million valuation in 2016. The Square in Tallaght changed hands for around €130 million, just over half its €250 million price in 2019. The Jervis Shopping Centre, under offer at €112 million, is expected to deliver double-digit returns once fully let.
In 2019, prime shopping centres were priced at 5 per cent yields. Post-Covid uncertainty likely reset that benchmark higher. If current pricing reflects 10 per cent and yields revert toward historical levels, today’s buyers could be securing some of the strongest opportunities of the cycle, particularly if income growth can be realised.
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Let’s turn to industrial. This sector has delivered exceptional consistency. Since 2012, rental growth has been positive every single year, averaging 7.68 per cent compounded annually. Availability remains extremely tight at 2.8 per cent. And from May 2025, new building-control regulations will require fire-sprinkler systems in many new warehouses, pushing construction costs higher. Developers will inevitably look to recover this through increased rents, which will continue to push rents. Prime industrial yields now stand at 4.9 per cent, the sharpest of any commercial sector. While still highly sought after, industrial lacks the mispricing that made retail parks such a standout opportunity.
The most compelling opportunity now lies in Dublin CBD (central business district) offices. At first glance, challenges are evident. Gross vacancy is 14.3 per cent, well above the 10-year average of 11.5 per cent, with more than 1 million square feet vacant in the North Docks. These numbers have fuelled investor caution and are reflected in discounted pricing.
Adam Ghee, chartered surveyor in the capital markets team at Cushman & Wakefield
Recent deals highlight both the repricing and the emerging upside. Number 2 Dublin Landings traded for about €527 per sq ft, roughly half its 2022 valuation, offering a 6.98 per cent yield with scope for double-digit returns once fully let. Connaught House followed a similar path, trading at €64.1 million down from €120 million in 2022, reflecting a 10.13 per cent yield adjusted for excluding a pre-completion vacancy. These deals show deep discounts but also opportunity.
Signs of that recovery are now visible. Vacancy has declined for three consecutive quarters, down from 17 per cent at the start of the year. The third quarter of 2025 marked a turning point, with 870,000 sq ft of take-up across 61 deals, the strongest quarter since the third quarter of 2019. On a 12-month rolling basis, demand is now 47 per cent above the 15-year average.
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Supply remains constrained. Net availability in the CBD stands at 3.55 million square feet, equal to two years of average demand. But when lower-quality buildings with Ber ratings of C or worse are excluded, this drops to just 1.37 years of Grade-A stock. While some older space will be released as tenants relocate, it will not satisfy demand for modern, energy-efficient buildings. Meanwhile, new development is at its lowest in a decade, with just 1.4 million square feet under construction, and 78 per cent of that already pre-let. Beyond 2026, there is no uncommitted space in the pipeline.
Development viability adds further pressure. Developers now cite €75 per sq ft as the rent required to make new projects stack up, around 15 per cent above current prime rents of €65. If demand continues to outpace long-term norms, tenants seeking best-in-class space will need to meet these higher rents. As in every cycle, a rising tide lifts all boats, pointing to future rental growth, yield compression, and capital-value gains for well-located offices.
The Trinity Collection succeeded because it was bought on strong fundamentals: tight supply, full occupancy, and rental reversion, all overlooked at the time. The result was a standout return.
Each sector has its merits. Industrial continues to exhibit robust rental growth. Retail, though further into its recovery, still presents opportunity. But among them, offices, particularly in Dublin’s CBD, now show the same overlooked fundamentals that defined the Trinity Collection: rising demand, falling vacancy, limited future supply, and rising development costs. Together, they point to a meaningful upside.
The signals are clear. Follow the data. It is pointing to the centre of the city.
Adam Ghee is a chartered surveyor in the capital markets team at Cushman & Wakefield