Business is slack at the lottery stand in the gloomy Greenland shopping centre, but locals still prefer to take their chances here – away from the blizzard outside – than with Donald Trump.
Retired woman Aaja has heard this morning’s latest speculation, that the United States will offer up to $100,000 for each of Greenland’s 53,000 residents if they secede from Denmark and join the US.
It’s the latest twist in a play for Denmark’s snow-covered Arctic island by Trump. Citing security concerns, his administration has placed the prospect of cash – but also the prospect of military force – on the table.
“They think we’re for sale but they just don’t understand us,” said Aaja, rolling her eyes at the memory of seeing a grinning Donald Trump jnr stroll last year through Nuuk, the tiny Greenland capital.
Lump sum payments are just one approach reportedly under discussion by Trump administration officials before they meet again with Danish counterparts next week after a White House meeting on Thursday.
In her Nuuk office, mayor Avaaraq Olsen says “the Americans know so little about us yet talk so much about us, like we were a part in a bigger play”.
Working out the precise details of that bigger play is equal parts deduction and speculation. Few in Nuuk believe Washington’s arguments that its takeover ambition is about reversing Danish neglect of regional security.
A rattled Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen warned Trump this week that taking the island territory by force would collapse Nato. Others wonder if Trump is in a rush to expand the territory of the US before its 250th anniversary on July 4th.
“If he wants it in the box by then, it could be Greenland,” said a senior local official in Nuuk. “We just don’t know.”
[ Trump threatens to acquire Greenland ‘whether they like it or not’Opens in new window ]
Polling Greenlanders about their future depends on the question being asked. A year ago 55 per cent said they would back independence if asked. Another poll weeks later showed 85 per cent do not wish to join the US. One in two want to remain Danish, 8 per cent could imagine becoming American while 37 per cent are unsure.
Those undecideds could be won over if the US drops its takeover threats to strike a deal with the local Greenland government to buy rare earth minerals – an area of competence where Copenhagen has no say.
But Danish analysts suggest this option, popular in US circles, overlooks decades of spectacular failure that has left the mining sector largely dormant.
“The Trump administration’s overtures have not addressed the scale of investment that would be required to build out Greenland’s infrastructure and mining ecosystem,” said Otto Svendsen, a Danish associate fellow of Washington’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Greenland prime minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has urged in a public Facebook post: “Enough is enough … no more fantasies about annexation.”
He knows any such move would see Copenhagen cut off crucial financial supports, amounting to one-fifth of the island’s annual GDP.
Nearly a quarter of island income comes from a fishing industry vulnerable to fluctuating prices.
Danish officials hope the idea of taking Greenland by force – backed by just 8 per cent of Americans in a YouGov poll – will drop down the Trump to-do list amid an increasingly complex Venezuela takeover and approaching US midterm elections.
Some senior US lawmakers have already sounded the alarm. Republican senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky described seizing Greenland as “an especially catastrophic act of strategic self-harm to America and its global influence”.