It will come as little solace to the Government that Ireland is not among the countries selected by US president Donald Trump for his latest round of tariff threats, this time relating to Greenland.
The move threatens to upend the EU/US trade deal agreed last year and spark a European reaction with moves to hit American products and companies. If this develops, Ireland cannot avoid being caught up in it.
Trump has said he will impose 10 per cent tariffs on all products coming from France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland from the start of February. He says this will rise to 25 per cent in June if a deal is not reached over ownership of the Arctic island.
Bluster is, of course, part of his normal negotiating tactics and we have seen before how tariff threats can fade away. But there is no obvious way forward in terms of the ownership of Greenland that Europe can sign up to.
Trump has threatened tariffs on six EU member states and two non-EU members. But in the political context of Greenland, and with big EU players among those threatened, it is inconceivable that the EU could progress with the implementation of the US/EU trade deal unless Trump draws back on this latest threats.
The outline deal done in Scotland last July, and subsequently worked on by both sides, looks to be in serious peril and will certainly not proceed for now. If Trump pushes ahead with his threat, the EU is then likely to impose tariffs in response. These would probably be place on some US products entering the entire EU market. Other measures, such as targeting US digital service firms, could also come into consideration, if the row develops.
As the country most reliant on US investment and trade, this would be bad news for Ireland. The Irish economy has, so far, weathered Trump-related uncertainty and tariffs better than expected. Now we will just have to see how the US president’s latest move plays out, but there are clear threats.
Ireland has no choice but to stand with the other member states in whatever measures they decide, even if Dublin would be likely to urge caution. The Coalition breathed a sign of relief when Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen shook hands on the trade deal, but now everything is up in the air again.
It is impossible to say how this will develop. For Trump, it is unclear the level of domestic political support he would have for a move on Greenland – particularly as it threatens a complete fracturing of relations with Europe. Tariffs will add to cost-of-living pressures in the US and hit American companies hard. There will surely be opposition from within his own Republican Party and horror on Wall Street and among US business.
A complication for the US president may come in a Supreme Court decision, expected imminently, on whether he had the legal authority to impose many of the tariffs we have seen over the past year. The administration has said it can find other grounds if necessary. What legal basis it would rely on for the latest proposed tariffs is not clear.
The opening of a deep political rift between the EU and US over Greenland – and the impact of Trump’s weaponising of trade to try to get his way – would mean significant challenges for the Irish Government, politically and economically. Ireland’s policy has for years been based on acting as a bridge between the two sides, attracting billions in US investment as a result. Now we may be facing into trade and wider economic conflict, as well as a wider political rift with potentially far-reaching implications for Europe.
This story has a way to run yet and we have seen over the past year the chaotic and unpredictable nature of Trump’s policies. He may also run into constraints at home. But just a few weeks into 2026, a new and potentially serious period of uncertainty and tension between Washington and European capitals appears to lie ahead.