Our eagle-eyed tipster likes the look of Beaufort Scale in the 14:30 at Punchestown

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Racing Tips

13:42 Newcastle – Staffordshire
14:30 Punchestown – Beaufort Scale
14:50 Musselburgh – Sattam
16:20 Musselburgh – Jus De Citron

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

I suspect that very few readers will barely look at this class six, rider-restricted race over an extended mile and a quarter. But dig deeper and you will find a few entries that could maybe bounce back to some kind of form in a race which will not take an awful lot of winning.

In such lowly contests, I like to assess the make-up of the race and there is, in theory, likely to be plenty of pace on. Millbuie had been off the track for a very long time prior to wind surgery, but then ran an encouraging run behind Time Turner here over a mile and a half. This trip will surely only help and following such a procedure a second time back may well be the time to catch the bay gelding.

Top weight Bavaria Iron has been beaten an accumulative total of 122 lengths on his last five starts, so hardly a credible advertisement to part with your hard-earned, but there were excuses on at least two occasions and his previous French form before joining Ivan Furtado was a level above this lot.

But with a fair gallop likely, at least four of these like to get on with things, STAFFORDSHIRE could well leave his previous form well behind, as he must do, to hit the three or even land the gold medal. A free-running sort, the son of Ghaiyyath will benefit from this step down in trip. His previous running on effort over nine and a half furlongs at Wolverhampton last autumn would give him outstanding claims in this field.

This is the betting race of the day and as per normal, Gordon Elliott sends a whole battalion onto the playing field for what is sure to be a last man standing, lung-bursting contest. The County Meath handler has six of the 16 entries and BEAUFORT SCALE looks a fascinating contender.

He was quietly fancied for his sojourn across the Irish Sea for the Welsh Grand National at Christmas, but like many of his rivals that day was gazumped by the going officially described as good to soft, but based on the time (8 seconds under standard), it was more like good (good to firm in places)! Never going from an early stage that afternoon, Paddy Hanlon was pretty easy on him through the final long home stretch, eventually beaten some 31 lengths into seventh spot behind the classy Haiti Couleurs.

However, his previous running on seventh of 18 in the Porterstown at Fairyhouse, he is surely no forlorn hope here returning to a much deeper surface, off a lower mark and with the blinkers applied for the first time.

Of course, there are a whole host of dangers, not least from his stablemates, the best of which are probably Patter Merchant and Lucky Lyreen, but an even bigger danger may emerge in the form of Born Braver, set to tackle a stamina-sapping trip for the first time in his career. Gavin Cromwell’s charge is 6lbs better off with the aforementioned Lucky Lyreen for a neck beating at Down Royal and would be even more interesting if strong in the market.

Built By Ballymore is another disappointing sort that could run well now that he is finally given this deeper test of stamina. He always looked a very strong stayer in his days as a novice hurdler, but has never really built on that promise since over fences. Rated as high as 139 over timber, he is now on a mark of 120 over the larger obstacles and could readily outrun his price.

14:50 Musselburgh – Sattam

A wind operation may well help Mr Lincoln to bounce back to form, although you need to be a very loyal supporter to part with your hard-earned on the six-year-old; the booking of Brian Hughes at least being a plus.

Rated in the early 70’s on the flat over one and a quarter miles plus, Canavan has run at least one very eye-catching race over hurdles and an opening mark of 98, less Gregor Walkingshaw’s mammoth 10lbs claim, could bring him into the equation, even though I have not seen this young man ride in public before.

But the percentage call has to be this Dianne Sayer-trained runner, SATTAM, who would surely not have been kept in training had he not been showing something at home prior to and since a 20-month absence from action.

That penultimate run at Sedgefield in May 2024 would make him a leading player here before a long spell on the sidelines, but connections must have been delighted with his comeback run at Catterick at the back end of last month. Not surprisingly, he was rusty over the first couple of obstacles before warming up down the far side of the track and making stealthy headway from the fourth last, before lack of an outing and that massive absence told down the home stretch. As long as the bounce factor doesn’t come into play, then he should be involved.

Any one of the former Edinburgh National winners, Inis Oirr, Jet Legs or even Bold Light, would have leading claims in this Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier were they to turn back the clock to their former glory days.

The first named is particularly interesting as he started off this term over fences with a cracking neck second to Dare To Shout off a rating of 117, but in five subsequent starts, three over fences and two jumping timber, he has run very flat indeed. Of course, there will come a time when he will bounce back, but I reckon the shrewd Russell/Scudamore team know as much as I do about his chances here, as the old boy seems to be keeping plenty back for himself.

That led me in the direction of the Harry Derham-trained runner JUS DE CITRON, who at least still comes into this contest with a degree of potential, after just four runs under rules. He was a strong finishing third to Moon Phases over two and a half miles at Newcastle on his fencing debut and this return to hurdles could be the answer, especially as he is raised in trip for the first time back at three miles since his point-to-point days. A positive move in the market would be interesting as well for the one horse in the field that retains the potential to take a significant step forward in a tricky contest.

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Racing Tips

13:42 Newcastle – Staffordshire
14:30 Punchestown – Beaufort Scale
14:50 Musselburgh – Sattam
16:20 Musselburgh – Jus De Citron

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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