Ahead of the final round of games in the 2026 Six Nations, France lead the title charge, but only just. Scoring difference is all that separates Les Bleus from second-place Scotland, both on 16 points, while Ireland remain in contention in third on 14 points.

France are the only one of the sides who can decide their fate. A bonus-point win over Steve Borthwick’s side will almost certainly see them retain the Six Nations title regardless of the result elsewhere as, even if Scotland also win with a bonus point, Les Bleus have a significant lead in terms of scoring difference: +79 to Scotland’s +21 and Ireland’s +16.

But anything less than a bonus-point win for the hosts at the Stade de France opens the door for either Ireland or Scotland. If France and Scotland both secure wins, but only Gregor Townsend’s side manage to do so with a bonus point, then the Scots win their first title since 1999.

If France and Scotland both win without a bonus point, it will go down to scoring difference, which again would almost certainly go France’s way.

A draw in Dublin would leave Scotland in need of a huge favour from England. Should the Scots manage a draw with a try-scoring bonus point, they’d need England to beat France in order to win the championship, or for the game in Paris to also end in a draw but without France earning a try-scoring bonus point. If France were to draw but get a try-scoring bonus point, the title would be decided by scoring difference.

Do Scotland have a genuine chance at breaking their 11-match losing run to Ireland?

However, a draw between Scotland and Ireland without the former earning a try-scoring bonus point means Scotland would only win the title if France lose to England without picking up the two bonus points on offer. If France lose but get the two bonus points with the loss, the title would go down to scoring difference.

And as for Ireland, if they beat Scotland with a bonus point, they would win the title if France then lose to England, or if there’s a draw in Paris without France earning a try-scoring bonus point. A draw for France with a bonus point would leave them level with Ireland on 19 points and scoring difference would determine who’s crowned champions.

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