Ireland faces weeks more disruption to energy markets which at a minimum will be “more severe” if the war in the gulf persists, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has told the Government.
A paper given by the IEA’s top energy economist to the State’s energy affordability taskforce on Thursday said huge volumes of oil and gas will not be produced by Gulf countries this month even assuming flows gradually resume towards the end of March.
With storage filling in the gulf and no capacity to ship oil out, or with facilities impacted by Iranian attacks, it warned that “if flows do not start to resume in late March, the impact will be more severe”.
Even if the conflict allows shipments to resume, the IEA presentation – seen by The Irish Times – outlines that “supply in April and beyond will take time to return to pre-crisis levels”, with tankers stuck on either side of the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane beside Iran, while closed oilfields will take time to come back online.
Amid growing concerns in Government about the sprawling impact of the conflict, the paper outlined that nearly six billion cubic metres of Middle East gas exports have already been lost, with more than 10 billion “certain to be disrupted even with a quick resolution to the conflict”.
Government sources said there were no concerns about supply to Ireland, but the impact of shortages on market prices would hit energy consumers here.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol, told the Financial Times on Friday the conflict was “the greatest global energy security threat in history”, with politicians and markets underestimating its scale. Tánaiste Simon Harris told RTÉ a “major global economic shock” could not be ruled out.
The Government is preparing a package of supports for households to go to Cabinet on Tuesday – expected to consist of a temporary cut to excise on fuels, the extension of the winter fuel allowance season and a measure to support hauliers.
The excise cut will initially be introduced for a shorter time-bound period, with a senior source indicating between four and six weeks – and the possibility it could be extended thereafter.
On Friday, Harris said the interventions would be for a short period “because we have to have the agility as a country to adapt, to evolve and to respond in the measures that we put forward” should further interventions be needed in the time ahead.
The IEA presentation also showed disruptions to deliveries were now starting to be felt across key markets, as shipments to the likes of northwest Europe can take 33 days – with tankers arriving now having left before the conflict.
The agency told the Government that oilfield supply chains need capital, expertise and equipment to restart production – while bringing them back online too quickly can damage equipment or the underground reservoir, incurring further losses and costs.