Shoppers face higher grocery prices in the months ahead as fallout from the Middle East crisis feeds through from suppliers, according to industry analyst Worldpanel by Numerator.

But that did not stop them splurging for Mother’s Day with an additional €2.3 million in boxed chocolate sold compared with last year. Combined spending on frozen desserts, ice cream, savoury snacks and alcohol rose by an additional €10.7 million year on year.

As the conflict in the Gulf continues to influence global fuel prices, attention is “increasingly turning to how these pressures will affect household budgets”, Emer Healy, business development director at Worldpanel by Numerator, said.

“Grocery inflation remains high, and shoppers may now face additional price increases in the months ahead,” she said.

“Historically, during periods of rapid inflation, shoppers have adapted by making practical changes, such as opting for lower priced alternatives, buying slightly less or seeking out promotions, and we can expect to see shoppers making these changes in the months ahead.

“Understanding how shoppers respond to growing economic pressure will be crucial for Ireland’s retailers over the coming months.

“While the situation is fast evolving, causing uncertainty for retailers and consumers alike, we’re monitoring the data closely to identify emerging shopper behaviours and provide clear guidance as the situation evolves.”

The warning comes as Worldpanel by Numerator said grocery price inflation had eased slightly in the four weeks to March 22nd – from 6.8 per cent previously to 6.5 per cent. The figure compares to an inflation rate of 4.5 per cent this time last year.

Take-home grocery sales in Ireland increased by 5.2 per cent on the same period last year.

While in-store shopping was down 2.6 per cent year-on-year, packs per trip grew by 1.3 per cent over the four weeks as shoppers stocked up for St Patrick’s Day and Mother’s Day, and made preparations for Easter.

Grocery inflation over the latest 12 weeks stood at 6.5 per cent, and shoppers responded by making smaller, more frequent trips to stores in a bid to manage household budgets, the data suggests.

With sales on promotion down 16 per cent year on year, shoppers had fewer opportunities to manage costs through deals, contributing to smaller basket sizes overall.

“Our latest pressure group analysis reveals that 26 per cent of Irish shoppers now describe themselves as financially struggling,” Healy said.

The value share of own label products increased over the past 12 weeks, with the category now holding 46.5 per cent of the market, up nearly two percentage points on last month alone, while Irish shoppers have spent nearly an additional €76 million on these ranges year on year.

Premium own label continued to perform strongly, with spending up nearly 12 per cent year-on-year. Brands similarly continued to grow in both value (4.3 per cent) and volume terms, albeit at a slower pace than own label.

More than 12 per cent of Irish households picked up hot cross buns over the month of March, spending an additional €498,000 on the festive treats year-on-year. Nearly half of Irish household’s also picked up an Easter egg in the run-up to the bank holiday weekend.

In terms of market share, Dunnes maintains its lead with 24.3 per cent share by value after value growth of 4.9 per cent in the latest 12 week period.

Tesco posted strong growth this period, with value sales up by 7.3 per cent for market share of 23.6 per cent.

SuperValu’s value share stood at 19.3 per cent, which was up 0.2 per cent in value growth versus last year.

Aldi holds an 11.1 per cent share up 0.3 per cent in value growth versus last year while Lidl grew its market share to 14.3 per cent up from 13.6 per cent in the previous period.