A new report warns AI could displace around 7% of jobs in Ireland, with higher skilled workers most at risk.
A new report warns AI could displace around 7% of jobs in Ireland(Image: Getty)
Artificial intelligence (AI) could “displace” around 7% of current jobs in the short to medium term, according to a new study.
The adoption of AI is also likely to lead to moderate increases in income inequality in the same period, according to a joint report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and Department of Finance published on Thursday.
The study said job displacement will be mainly among workers whose roles can be partially carried out by AI, while those who keep their jobs may see wage increases related to higher productivity through the use of the technology.
The research used ESRI models and international evidence to simulate a range of scenarios.
In its central scenario, it said AI adoption among Irish firms is likely to lead to job losses and “employment shock”.
It states: “In our central scenario – drawn from credible international estimates – around 7% of current jobs could be displaced in the short–medium run.”
Unlike other periods of major technological change, it said the job losses would be concentrated among highly educated workers – “reflecting the strong exposure of high-skilled occupations to AI technologies”.
The report said: “Those most likely to experience this disruption are found in higher income households, where the share of workers transitioning into unemployment is substantially larger than in lower income families.”
The ESRI added: “Returns to capital are also expected to increase, modestly on average, but with disproportionate benefits accruing to the highest-income households who hold most capital assets.
“Taken together, these forces produce an overall decline in average household disposable income in the short term.”
The study examined Ireland’s “current occupational structure” and could not take into account what new jobs or opportunities may arise out of AI adoption.
The ESRI said Ireland’s tax and welfare system is “well-placed to absorb” most of the income losses for lower-income households in the short term through increased welfare entitlement and reduced tax liability.
It will also absorb roughly half of the losses for the highest-income households.
However, it said all the scenarios it ran result in a small to moderate increase in household income inequality, widening the gap between the rich and the poor.
The authors say the displacement of roles could have “substantial” impacts on the Exchequer.
The ESRI said: “If employment losses are small or reallocation of workers is fast, Exchequer revenue may increase due to productivity gains.
“If job displacement is large, however, income tax receipts will fall relative to the baseline and welfare spending will rise, putting significant pressure on the public finances.”
The research group said this showed the importance of investing in retraining and supporting the AI transition.
Report author Sorcha O’Connor, of the Department of Finance, said: “The widespread adoption of AI will likely boost productivity and raise living standards in the long term. However, it’s important that these benefits are widely dispersed and that everyone benefits.”
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