All eyes are on the Middle East waiting to see a ceasefire will be called, but Brits are facing price increases when doing the weekly food shop, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon
Brits will feel a hit to their wallets as food price set to rise due to Middle East war(Image: Getty Images/iStockphoto)
From the missiles over the Middle East to the milk on your kitchen table, the true cost of modern warfare is about to be baked in to the British weekly shop.
Experts are warning that few products on our supermarket shelves will be safe as food itself becomes the latest weapon in a global conflict – leaving the UK extremely vulnerable due to our heavy reliance on imports. Even if a tentative ceasefire holds, the average British family – who spends £100 a week – is already braced to fork out an extra £470 a year just to keep the cupboards full if food inflation rises as experts have predicted
One fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran forced closed following US and Israel strikes in late February. Global markets have spiralled, and with President Trump launching a counter-blockade of the narrow waterway, prices are expected to rise. At the beginning of the month, The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), which represents 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, warned food inflation could hit nine percent before the end of the year.
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Even if the Strait reopened soon, and things returned to normal, the damage is already done. Harvir Dhillon, Economist at the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warns that once prices spike, they rarely retreat. “Wages, transport costs and raw materials all remain permanently high,” he explains. While wages have slowly caught up with the inflation triggered by the invasion of Ukraine, this new shock threatens to reset the clock.
For 54-year-old Aisha* from Glasgow, the prospect of these price hikes are “scary” and “crazy”. Aisha, a single mum of two, was forced out of work by rheumatoid arthritis and two damaged discs in her lower back after 13 years of pushing through the pain. Before she had to give up her job as a carer, she never turned down shifts and sorely wishes she could find some customer service work that she could undertake remotely from home, with mobility issues making her increasingly isolated.
People are having to make impossible choices in light of rising costs(Image: Getty)
“It’s scary…it’s crazy,” she tells the Mirror. Aisha lives in a home she can no longer afford to repair, “clock-watching” the central heating so it never stays on for more than 20 minutes. Most heartbreakingly, she often has to skip essential medications to afford food.
As a Muslim eating a Halal diet, the crisis is even more acute, with food banks struggling to meet specialist requirements as they’re overwhelmed by demand. “You might only be able to use 25 percent of what you’ve brought home with you,” she explains, passing on the non-Halal items she receives to neighbours or back into supermarket donation bins.
“People are going to become homeless,” warns Aisha. “Families with kids more than anyone else. It’s really scary…it frightens me”. People are going to get deeper and deeper into poverty. They’re going to be more reliant on food banks.” “Health issues can happen to anyone,” she points out, “any of us.”
Aisha was forced out of work due to health issues
Food poverty
With households across the UK feeling the pinch, the fear that more people could be plunged into food poverty is not a distant one. The Food Foundation’s Chief Executive, Anna Taylor, tells the Mirror that the FDF’s estimates are “pretty sobering” and “worryingly high”. She points out that on top of the “choke point” shock of the Strait of Hormuz being shutdown, “climate shocks” are increasing in number and “pushing inflation through the system”.
Their latest figures show that 12 percent of UK homes are “struggling to put food on the table” and that further increases will have a “devastating impacts on families”. Meat and dairy products will likely see price increases first, due to the two-fold nature of farming, where you have to pay to produce the feed before you can even feed the animals.
Highly processed staples like instant coffee, milk powder, and crisps are also set to increase in cost, because of the massive energy required to produce them. Indoor horticulture like tomatoes and cucumbers are grown in heated greenhouses so it’s likely we’ll see price hikes there too, warns James Walton, Chief Economist at the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD).
He says: “The situation in the Middle East is fluid but, if it persists, some impact on the food system will be hard to avoid. All products could be exposed one way or another, but the most energy intensive, such as indoor horticulture, would be hit hardest. Costs were already rising in the food system even before conflict broke out and pre-established inflation factors may be more important than war effects.”
What to do if there are shortages
The blockade of Hormuz has done more than just raise shipping costs, it has choked the supply of fertiliser components, meaning that price increases are currently spreading through the entire UK food system.
Professor Tim Lang, Emeritus Professor of Food Policy at City University, tells the Mirror that the UK is drastically exposed and needs a renewed focus on increasing domestic production. He argues that that food security itself is now a key component of “modern hybrid warfare.”
“Food is now in the frontline of weaponisation,” Lang explains. “One in five trucks on UK roads is [carrying] food, yet we produce only about 60 percent of our food. There’s next to no storage. Some countries are stockpiling to protect their consumers – the UK isn’t.”
Lang points out, “Even if the ceasefire holds and a lasting peace deal frees up the Strait of Hormuz, food price inflation is unlikely to subside. It’s likely to rise to 8 or 9% by mid summer. Optimists think it might drop but most analysts think the upward pressure will continue. We’re in a world of multiple and on-going shocks from climate change, geopolitics and all the features of modern ‘hybrid warfare’.”
While the outlook may feel grim, beans, pulses, and legumes remain relatively safe from price rises, and also can provide essential nutrients required for a healthy diet at a lower price, meaning the Food Foundation highly recommends them to low-income households.
As Helen Barnard of the Trussell Trust points out, food bank use is already 45 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels. Without urgent government intervention, the cost of a war thousands of miles away will have an impact. She said: “There is a high risk of this progress being unravelled with economic instability and rising costs likely to push more families into hunger and hardship. We need the UK government to take further action to ensure everyone is able to afford the essentials.”
*Aisha’s name was changed for this piece