The race now will pit one anti-establishment lawmaker from Ireland’s left-wing opposition, Catherine Connolly, against politicians from the two center-ground parties in Ireland’s coalition government: Cabinet veteran Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael and sports hero Jim Gavin of Fianna Fáil.
This marks the fewest candidates to qualify for a presidential ballot since Ireland’s watershed 1990 election, when Mary Robinson, a civil rights lawyer from the opposition Labour Party, became the first non-Fianna Fáil figure to win the presidency in a three-way contest. Connolly, an independent socialist with backing from both Labour and the main opposition Sinn Féin, will be hoping history repeats itself.
Fine Gael, Ireland’s most pro-EU party, has never won a presidential election. But this time, all opinion polls have placed Humphreys in pole position, reflecting her reputation as a popular figure and canny campaigner in rural Ireland. That early consensus is backed by gambling markets, which rate the Fine Gaeler as the safest bet.
Ireland’s president has no role in government but must sign all legislation before it can become law. This review power means that, in relatively rare cases, the president can refer legislation already approved by the parliament and government to the Supreme Court to determine whether it is constitutional.