Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 35 - Ireland News Beep

Jake’s Predictions 25/26: Staked 495.50pts | Returned 539.16pts | P/L +43.66pts | ROI 9%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Friday 20:00 – Leeds v Burnley

0.5pt Pascal Struijk to score anytime at 9/1 (Betway) – min price 6/1

0.5pt Jaka Bijol to score anytime at 9/1 (Betway) – min price 6/1

Saturday 15:00

0.5pt Nathan Collins to score anytime in Brentford vs West Ham at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor) – min price 8/1

0.5pt Sepp van den Berg to score anytime in Brentford vs West Ham at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) – min price 8/1

2pts Yankuba Minteh to commit 2+ fouls in Newcastle vs Brighton at 6/4 (Betway) – min price 3/4

1pt Joelinton to be carded in Newcastle vs Brighton at 13/5 (bet365) – min price 15/8

Saturday 17:30 – Arsenal vs Fulham

2pts Under 2.5 goals at 11/10 (General)

Sunday 14:00 – Bournemouth vs C Palace

1pt Crystal Palace or draw (double chance) at 11/8 (BOYLE Sports)

1pt Borna Sosa to be carded at 19/5 (William Hill) – min price 2/1

Sunday 15:30 – Man Utd vs Liverpool

1.5pt Manchester United to win at 11/8 (Betway)

1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 12/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) – min price 6/4

0.5pt Bruno Fernandes 2+ assists at 12/1 (Betway) – min price 8/1

Sunday 19:00 – Aston Villa vs Tottenham

1pt Kevin Danso to be carded at 23/10 (Coral) – min price 15/8

1pt Pedro Porro to be carded at 14/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) – min price 15/8

***Monday bets to follow

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

BBRRRUUUNNNOOOOO!

At this rate we may have to buy a Bruno Fernandes shirt. The Portuguese maestro has assisted nearly every time we’ve backed him, and the great man delivered again last week to make it a profitable gameweek 34.

It was a +4pt weekend to get us back on track, and there are some cracking matches to get stuck into in gameweek 35.

Leeds vs Burnley

Leeds‘ five-game unbeaten run has seen them reach 40 points, and it feels as though one more win will secure their Premier League status given both West Ham and Tottenham have started to pick up points.

Luckily for them, they get to face relegated Burnley at home, a side winless in eight league games and one that has lost 12 of 17 away games, conceding a league-high 42 goals on their travels. It’s been another miserable Premier League season so it’s no surprise to see Scott Parker being moved on.

A home win is priced accordingly at 4/9, and while Leeds -1 handicap did catch the eye at 6/5, I think this game looks ripe for a centre-back scorer given the set-piece mismatch we should witness.

Leeds have scored the third most set-piece goals in the league this season (15) and racked up the fifth-most xG from dead-balls (15.00), while Burnley have faced the fifth-most set-piece shots and third-most xG (15.78).

First up for us then is PASCAL STRUIJK TO SCORE ANYTIME at 9/1. The Dutchman is yet to score this season but it’s not for a lack of trying.

He’s taken 29 shots, 0.97 per 90, this term and accumulated 2.89 xG, with his 0.10 xG per 90 a very solid figure for a centre-back. At Elland Road he’s had at least on shot in 13 of 16 starts too.

We’ll also chance JAKA BIJOL TO SCORE ANYTIME at the same price. He’s scored once this season, at home against Chelsea, and is averaging 0.87 shots per 90 too.

Score prediction: Leeds 3-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Odds correct at 11:20 BST (30/04/26)

Brentford vs West Ham

This is a big game with potential implications at both ends of the table, as Brentford are chasing European football and West Ham fight to avoid the drop.

We’ll swerve the main markets and again head down the set-piece route as this game presents another big set-piece mismatch. Despite only scoring nine set-piece goals, Brentford have accumulated the third most xG from dead-ball situations (16.54), while West Ham have conceded the joint-most set-piece goals (17) and sixth most xG (14.52).

Recent form in this area suggests that trend is still in situ. Across their last seven league games Brentford have generated an average of 0.67 xG from set-pieces alone, while the Hammers have conceded 0.62 per game.

We’ll split stakes on both NATHAN COLLINS and SEPP VAN DEN BERG TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively.

Collins has been to the fore from attacking set-pieces recently for the Bees, takings at least one shot in seven of his last 10 appearances and firing six shots in his last four. He has scored already this season and has had three shots in two meetings with the Hammers at the London Stadium.

Van den Berg is yet to score this term and his shooting rate has dropped recently but I wouldn’t be able to live with myself he he wasn’t tipped and went on to score.

He has averaged 0.09 xG per 90 so has been knocking on the door, and against such a vulnerable set-piece team he’s chanced too.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 14:30 BST (30/04/26)

Newcastle vs Brighton

Newcastle‘s season has petered out, with Champions League exit followed by derby defeat and another three straight losses piling pressure on Eddie Howe. The last thing they need is a visit from the top flight’s form side Brighton.

The Seagulls haven’t been seen since walloping Chelsea 3-0, but that was their sixth win in eight league games. They’ve lost just once in that time against title chasing Arsenal.

A pro-Brighton bet was on my mind, especially given Newcastle’s absentees and the Seagulls’ recent head-to-head record with the Magpies – they are unbeaten in six – but Chris Kavanagh (3.85 cards per game in PL) has the whistle so we’ll visit the card and foul markets.

Starting with the former, a returning JOELINTON shouldn’t be 13/5 TO BE CARDED on Saturday. Fresh from a two-match ban for accumulating 10 cards before the 33nd gameweek, the Brazilian will be at it from the off here and will no doubt be angered by the form of his team.

He’s been a card machine since Boxing Day, collected seven in 11 league outings at an average of 0.78 cards per 90, and was going off shorter than 2/1 before his most recent ban, so against a tricky Brighton side, he looks too big.

My favourite bet in this game is to back former Newcastle winger YANKUBA MINTEH TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 6/4. After a spell out of the team, the Gambian has really made his mark since being brought back in for the 1-0 win at Sunderland.

His team have won four and drawn one since he became a regular starter again, and his foul numbers have been eye-catching, landing 2+ in four of those five.

The sweetener for this bet is that I expect Newcastle to bring Lewis Hall back into the starting XI for this one after Dan Burn was given the nod against set-piece centric Arsenal.

Hall is an expert foul drawer, being felled multiple times in 12 of his last 18 league starts and all of his last five, averaging 1.98 fouls won per 90 in that time. He’s priced accordingly at 8/15 to win 2+ fouls, so as his direct match-up, the price on offer for Minteh to commit fouls stands out.

Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Odds correct at 14:30 BST (30/04/26)

Wolves vs Sunderland

This feels like a dead-rubber, even though Sunderland are still technically in the race for Europe.

The Black Cats were thumped last week by Nottingham Forest, and before that conceded a late winner to Aston Villa, allowing a whopping nine goals in those two fixtures – very unlike them.

We were burned by Wolves last weekend as they fought valiantly only to lose late on to Tottenham, and while the hosts did interest me at 23/10, it’s going to be a rare ‘no bet’ for us.

Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Odds correct at 15:35 BST (30/04/26)

Arsenal vs Fulham

If Arsenal are going to win the title, it’s going to be a horrible watch for their fans. Last weekend’s 1-0 win over Newcastle was an extremely uncomfortable and nervous performance from the Gunners, with the feelings from the stands feeding onto the pitch.

There was a sense of relief as they got over the line in that game, and no doubt this game against an equally as capable opponent in Fulham will go the same way. Arsenal are just looking to grind games out right now and it’s hard to see them winning any game of football comfortably.

It’s therefore staggering to me that we can back UNDER 2.5 GOALS here at 11/10, and that has to be backed, especially given the tight turnaround from a Champions League semi-final first leg for Arsenal and a second leg approaching.

Mikel Arteta has tightened Arsenal up, they’ve become harder to score against but that has come at a cost as their attacking numbers have dropped off a cliff.

Across their last eight matches in all competitions the Gunners have generated an average of just 1.30 xGF and allowed 1.19 xGA per game, and that is not title winning form.

Five of those eight have gone under 2.5 goals and it’s seven of their last 10 that have seen this bet land, and opponents Fulham are also on a similar run of low-goal games.

Six of the Cottagers’ last seven games have gone under, with Marco Silva’s side scoring in just two of those matches. Excluding a thrashing of Burnley, they have generated just 1.09 xGF per game in that run but have allowed 1.33 xGA per game.

Everything on Saturday points towards another low-scoring, fine-margin Arsenal win, but at this stage, the win is all that matters.

Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 15:30 BST (30/04/26)

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace

This is one of those games where, on paper, it matters far more to one side. Bournemouth still have plenty to play for, sitting seventh and just a point behind Brighton, with those spots currently enough for European football.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, are 13th and out of the league’s key battles. Their focus has to be on the Conference League after a 3-1 win over Shakhtar Donetsk in midweek put them on the brink of the final.

That said, they’ve handled the balance well. Since beating Tottenham before the last-16 ties, Oliver Glasner’s side have largely kept their level, losing just one of four league games played around European fixtures.

That defeat came at Anfield, but the scoreline flattered Liverpool. Palace won the shot count 14-9, led 7-3 in shots on target, created more big chances (5-3), and posted nearly double the xG (2.26 to 1.15). It was about as strong a losing performance as you’ll see.

If they maintain that level, Palace are more than capable of disrupting teams in the run-in.

Bournemouth are unbeaten in 15 across all competitions (90 minutes), but nine of those have been draws, highlighting a lack of cutting edge. That trend is even clearer at the Vitality, where they’ve drawn their last five and nine of 17 this season.

With the last three meetings between these sides also ending level, the draw stands out again. Bournemouth look too short at 4/6, which pushes PALACE OR DRAW out to 11/8 – a price that makes plenty more appeal.

Glasner will want to maintain momentum, and with decent squad depth, any rotation shouldn’t significantly weaken Palace.

We’ll also take a punt on BORNA SOSA getting the nod for the Eagles with Tyrick Mitchell’s minutes likely to be managed having only just returned from injury. The Croatian is a walking card in my book and Robert Jones is a good refereeing appointment for card backers, averaging 4.33 per game in the top flight this season.

He has been booked five times this season across all competitions despite playing just 840 minutes of football, giving him a card per 90 average of 0.54.

He was booked last weekend as a second half sub at Anfield, managed a card against National League North side Macclesfield in the FA Cup, was booked at home against minnows KuPS in the Conference League league phase and against Fredrikstad in the qualifiers, while was also sent off against Dynamo Kyiv.

Sosa is clumsy and reckless and against a Bournemouth side who will be applying a lot of pressure as they try to get points looks a whopping price at 19/5 TO BE CARDED.

For settling purposes, the bet will only be void if Sosa plays no part in the game, but my advice would be to check team news and cash out should he be on the bench as the amount of times he’s been subbed on with very little time to play this season (6) is a concern.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 11:15 BST (01/05/26)

Manchester United vs Liverpool

Manchester United vs Liverpool is always a big game, but this one doesn’t have quite as much riding on it – other than bragging rights.

That’s because recent wins have seen the pair pull clear of sixth as they both aim to finish in the top five and secure Champions League football, with a United win on Sunday mathematically confirming UCL qualification and go a long way to confirming the Red Devils finishing above their bitter rivals.

UNITED are priced at 11/8 TO WIN here and I rate that as value. Michael Carrick’s side will be close to a full complement on Sunday with Luke Shaw, Leny Yoro and Matheus Cunha all expected to return, while they have been excellent at Old Trafford since his arrival (W6 L1).

In that time they have turned over two sides in the top five including title favourites Manchester City, scoring multiple times in all bar the defeat to Leeds, where they were reduced to 10-men after an hour.

Liverpool’s result against Crystal Palace really masked over a very poor performance, with a tired team missing key players finding life tough as the season draws to a close. The Eagles were comfortably the better team last weekend, while the Reds weren’t all that great in the derby before that, needing a 100th minute goal to get three points.

Arne Slot’s side haven’t travelled well this season, winning just seven of 17, losing as many, but the fact that all of those seven wins have come against bottom half sides has me even more happy to back a home win here.

In seven league away games against top half teams, the Reds have failed to win, losing five times and conceding two or more goals on six occasions. The only top half team who failed to score twice when hosting Liverpool were Arsenal. In that septet of games the Reds have conceded an average of 1.58 xGA per game, while their attack has failed to fire too (1.21 xGF per game).

Factor in Liverpool’s injury issues, which sees third choice keeper Freddie Woodman likely to start, Milos Kerkez doubtful and the absence of both Mohamed Salah and Hugo Ekitike, and the price about a home win looks value.

If United are to score multiple goals again, then the chances are that our man BRUNO FERNANDES will have provided 1+ ASSIST, and at 23/10 we have to go back in again, especially given his performance on Monday night.

The Portuguese maestro is on 19 for the season after providing another goal against Brentford and needs just two to break the all-time Premier League record, and he played like he was only focused on the record, choosing not to shoot and look for passes whenever in the final third.

That means I’m happy to take the shorter price despite the opponent, as we know Fernandes’ sole focus is to set up teammates. With that in mind we’ll also back FERNANDES 2+ ASSISTS at 12/1.

It would be classic Bruno to break the record in such a big game, and he has already had three multiple-assist games in his last 20 for United including against fifth-placed Aston Villa, while having one such game for Portugal too.

Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Odds correct at 12:15 BST (01/05/26)

Aston Villa vs Tottenham

Will Tottenham‘s injury crisis ever abate? James Maddison returned last week but Spurs lost both Dominic Solanke and Xavi Simons in the win over Wolves. That pair join fellow starters Mohammed Kudus, Dejan Kulusevski, Christian Romero and Pape Sarr on the sidelines, with Destiny Udogie and Gugliemo Vicario both doubtful.

It’s one of the many reasons they are battling to avoid the drop, and it means they have to be opposed at every opportunity. Joe has done just that in his match preview, taking Aston Villa at 6/5, so rather than double up on a home win we’ll rinse and repeat our successful tactic from last weekend.

Timothy Castagne was put up to be carded and duly obliged in the first half, making it 11 times in Villa’s last 12 league games that the opposing right-back or centre-back has been carded.

Lucky for us, Tottenham right-back PEDRO PORRO is 14/5 TO BE CARDED this weekend, and he is also a serial offender having been booked 12 times across all competitions at an average of 0.31 per 90.

The Spaniard has been booked in both of his last two away games and will be fully tested here against Villa’s dangerous left hand side which saw him booked the last time these side met in the FA Cup.

We also have to take KEVIN DANSO TO BE CARDED too given the Villa stats, with the Austrian set to again play right-centre-back. He’s been booked in both of his starts under Roberto De Zerbi, no surprise as the Italian manager wants his centre-backs to push up and press high.

Overall this season he has six cards in limited Premier League minutes, with his card per 90 average a whopping 0.48 making him a must-bet here too at 23/10.

The referee here is Sam Barrott who has averaged 3.72 cards per game in the Premier League this season, and he should be busy given Tottenham are the most carded team in the league (91 – 2.68 per game) and Aston Villa draw the most cards of any team in the league (84 – 2.47 per game).

Coincidentally, Barrott has refereed Spurs twice this season and has taken both Danso and Porro’s names in those outings.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 13:00 BST (01/05/26)

Jake Osgathorpe’s Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 35

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