Recent history suggests Ireland have delivered their best performances at the end of exhausting seasons.
Andy Farrell is just brilliant at getting teams right at the right time. You look back to 2022, Ireland beat New Zealand in Wellington to win a series.
In 2024, after an exhausting World Cup season, you’ll remember the Ciarán Frawley dropgoal at the death in Durban when Ireland beat South Africa, who were world champions.
So they have history of performing and pulling out their best performance at the end of a season when people don’t expect it.
New Zealand’s record in Auckland – the All Blacks are unbeaten in 52 Tests at Eden Park since 1994 – is incredible, but that can become a burden too. Look, but this is a new New Zealand side. Scott Robertson was let go last year.
Dave Rennie has brought in a lot of younger players, a huge amount of the Hurricanes side who smashed everybody in Super Rugby this year.
The half-backs of Cam Roigard, Ruben Love at 10, he’s only seven caps. Of course, you’ve Jordie Barrett at 12, who everybody remembers from his stint in Leinster, he’s playing outstanding.
But really for me, it’s up front.
Rennie has surprised a lot of people in picking Patrick Tuipulotu, a massive, 22 stone second row, and moved Tupou Vaa’i, who’s a brilliant, fantastic athletic forward. He’s picked him in the back row, but he’s played there only once.
Tadhg Beirne moves to the back row
I think it’s probably the first time a New Zealand side have adjusted their selection to take on Ireland, where they’re strong, to take on the likes of Tadhg Beirne, Joe McCarthy, and James Ryan in a lineout that has been sort of malfunctioning over the past couple of games.
They just about got over France and struggled against Italy last week, where there was only four points in it at half-time. So they’re a developing, new side.
But I have to say they’re playing a magnificent brand of rugby. They still have the likes of Will Jordan on the wing, Barrett, as I mentioned, Ardie Savea, captain in the back row.
So I expect New Zealand to win, the whole Eden Park thing, the pressure will be on them.
Despite two wins from two, Ireland haven’t been convincing, they’ve been short of their best. I think they’ll perform really well, but I’m expecting New Zealand to come out on top.
Beating New Zealand, of course, would be the best way of rounding off this season, but I just don’t see it happening.
Donal Lenihan was speaking on RTÉ Radio 1’s Morning Ireland.
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