Oil and gas, previously shielded by CUSMA exemptions, would also face the existing US 10% global tariff under this scenario, with oil and natural gas exports to the US falling 11% and 30% respectively, Deloitte’s modelling shows. The authors project a net loss of 0.4% in real GDP for oil and 0.9% for natural gas by 2036.
Earlier, the Canadian American Business Council (CABC) noted that Canada could lose 102,000 jobs in 2027 alone in case of a total CUSMA breakdown.
Comparing Canadian and US side effects
Deloitte’s authors note that Canada’s exports to the US would be expected to fall about 21% by 2036 under the downside scenario, but total global exports would fall only about half as much, roughly 10.5%, as displaced Canadian products find new buyers domestically and abroad.
That gap exists partly because US protectionism would raise American production costs, the report states, allowing a “more competitive Canada” to capture some of the US’s global market share for certain products. The US currently accounts for approximately 70% of Canadian exports, a concentration the authors describe as a continuing vulnerability.
In Deloitte’s alternative “accelerated diversification” scenario, US tariffs hold at baseline levels while Canada expands trade deals elsewhere. That scenario shows Canadian real GDP growing 0.6% by 2036, adding $141 billion in cumulative GDP and about 53,000 jobs a year — roughly one-third of the jobs at risk under the withdrawal scenario.