The 10-year Treasury yield settled near 5% on Tuesday, its highest closing level since 2007. That milestone raises the stakes for the Federal Reserve rate decision.
The bond market has sold off this year amid nerves about inflation and other concerns. As focus turns to the Fed decision, investors want reassurance that the central bank is serious about reining in inflation.
Traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to raise its benchmark lending rate on Wednesday. Odds for a hike rose above 90% after core inflation data released Friday was slightly hotter than expected.
If the Fed raises by a quarter point, matching expectations, investors will be keen to gauge whether it’s the start of a series of hikes and how the Fed is viewing its inflation mandate. If investors feel confident in the Fed, that could keep yields contained.
But if the Fed surprises markets by holding rates steady, it could trigger a bond sell-off. If the Fed doesn’t convince investors that it is serious about reining in inflation, bond yields on the long end of the yield curve (10-year to 30-year) could move higher.
“We’ve heard the Fed talk the talk [on inflation], and then potentially be perceived as not walking the walk,” Chip Hughey, managing director for fixed income at Truist Advisory Services, told CNN.
“That might make the long end nervous if there is not a hike delivered today,” he said. “I would expect the long end to move higher if the Fed stands pat.”
Yields were lower Wednesday morning ahead of the Fed rate decision, pulling back after rising to multi-year highs to start the week. Oil prices also fell more than 3%, easing pressure on bonds.