Key points Main reads
Stephen Conneely – 5 minutes ago
The health budget has been a perennial flashpoint
The Government has already revised up spending forecasts for this year by €700 million, and most of this relates to additional health spending. But the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council is warning the overspend could hit €1 billion by the year’s end, reports Economics Correspondent Eoin Burke-Kennedy.
A key thing to examine is whether these overruns are baked into next year’s health budget or not. And whether the Government will signal adequate rises in the health budget in the later years, ones that account for ageing and inflation.
“Spending overruns have become routine and have repeatedly pushed spending above budget-day plans,” Ifac chairman Seamus Coffey noted in an Oireachtas committee last month. “Over the past decade, spending overruns have averaged more than €2 billion per year in today’s terms,” he said
Irish Fiscal Advisory Council chairman Seamus Coffey has warned ‘spending overruns have become routine’.
Stephen Conneely – 12 minutes ago
Although public conversation will largely focus on those who benefit most from Budget 2027, hundreds of thousands of people across the State might not see much difference in their personal finances at all, says Consumer Affairs Correspondent Conor Pope.
While much of the talk in the hours and days ahead will be the impact of the tax changes on incomes higher than €44,000 and the €10 per week increase in welfare and pension payments as well as the money spent on supporting those on lower incomes to heat and light their homes over the winter months, there will be one cohort that will see many of the tax benefits and welfare supports pass them by.
As many as 400,000 people earn between €35,000 and €44,000 – and, as such, they will probably be taking home too much to benefit from the increase in allowances and too little to benefit from the widening of the lower rate tax band from €44,000 to €46,500.
These people will see their tax burden fall by €250 annually as a result of the increase in two distinct tax credits by €125 each they will see marginal gains from the changes to the ceiling on the second USC band but that will be pretty much that.
Conor Pope: ‘There will be one cohort that will see many of the tax benefits and welfare supports pass them by’. Illustration: Paul Scott / The Irish Times.
Stephen Conneely – 24 minutes ago
It’s one of the great days in the parliamentary calendar, when public attention is focussed on Leinster House more so perhaps than any other day in the year. Bookies take bets – or they used to, at any rate – on the colour of the Minister’s tie: on what other occasion do people pay such attention to the Minister for Finance, never mind what colour of his tie? People pay attention because they know what politicians announce on Budget Day has a direct and material effect on their lives, writes Political Editor Pat Leahy.
There’s two budget ministers nowadays, of course. When the economic crash destroyed the credibility of the previously all-powerful Department of Finance, the public spending function was transferred to the new Department of Public Expenditure which means that a lot of wrangling with the spending departments now falls to that Minister, currently Jack Chambers. For much of the last few weeks, his colleagues have been bitching about Chambers – a sign that he has not yielded to many of their demands. For his colleague, the Minister for Finance Simon Harris, this is his first budget. It all kicks off in the Dail at 1pm, with Harris’s speech. He will be followed by Chambers and then by Opposition spokespeople.
Minister for Public Expenditure, Infrastructure, Public Service Reform and Digitalisation, Jack Chambers TD speaking to the media outside Government Buildings on the the publication of the National Public Procurement Strategy in August. Photo: Sam Boal/Collins Photos
Recent decades have seen all sorts of different budgets. Charlie McCreevy enjoyed his “Champagne Charlie” phase in the 1990s and early 2000s, when – in his own words – he had it and he spent it. But when McCreevy sought to slow the pace of spending growth, he was replaced by Brian Cowen who went with the flow and expanded public spending on the back of tax receipts that would prove to be precarious. Giveaway budgets became instead grim prescriptions of austerity; angry protests gathered outside the gates of Leinster House to decry the crimes committed inside.
That period lasted for more than half a decade. When the economy bounced back in the mid-20-teens, politicians began to spend the money generated by burgeoning corporation tax receipts. Into the 2020s, that trend has only accelerated. The last ten budgets have all seen very significant giveaways. There’s more on the cards today.
Politicians all say that the public is demanding help with rising costs – and no doubt that’s true. Outside Leinster House, there’s no sign of any protests. It’s bucketing down rain on Kildare St; inside the gates, however, politicians are hoping the economic weather doesn’t change.
Barriers have been erected outside Leinster House on Tuesday morning, in the hours leading up to the announcement of Budget 2027. Photograph: Dara Mac Dónaill / The Irish Times.
Stephen Conneely – 40 minutes ago
Budget 2027 is to be announced by Minister for Finance and Tánaiste Simon Harris in two hours time. Irish Times photographer Dara Mac Dónaill is outside the gates of Leinster House, where security preparations are already underway.
Keep following this live blog for rolling updates of the day’s events.
Gardaí on duty outside Leinster House on the day Budget 2027 is announced. Photograph: Dara Mac Dónaill / The Irish Times.
The budget should put Ireland on track to break €100 million in funding for high-performance athletes in an Olympic cycle for the first time.
Extra funding will be provided for Sport Ireland to support the development of Gaelic Games, in particular to develop hurling and camogie in non-traditional and urban areas, reports Jack Horgan-Jones.
An additional €1m is expected for the inter-county player support scheme to support elite Gaelic Games players.
There will also be another €1m (10 per cent increase) for the reconciliation fund run by the Department of Foreign Affairs, which funds community groups in the north with a focus on cross community engagement.
Further 79 cent increase in minimum wage expected
The Government is expected to agree to a recommendation by the Low Pay Commission for a further 79 cent increase in the minimum wage, which would bring the current rate from €14.15 per hour to €14.94.
However, the introduction of a living wage – to replace the minimum statutory rate – is expected to be pushed out again, reports Eoin Burke-Kennedy.
Last year, Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke announced a three-year delay to the introduction of the living wage, pushing the target date out from 2026 to 2029. This is now likely to be moved again.
The minimum wage has become a major flashpoint with worker advocates demanding relief from the high cost of living and business groups warning of severe labour cost pressures.
Minister for Enterprise, Tourism and Employment Peter Burke. Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA Increase expected on box of cigarettes and disposable vapes
The last few budgetary measures are now leaking out, reports Jack Horgan-Jones.
It now looks like most workers will get a €125 tax credit (two in a double income household) and there will be a €100 home carer credit increase.
The ceiling for the second USC band (two per cent) will go up €1,600 to €30,300, targeting lower earners. The capital gains tax will go down two per centage points.
The tax free threshold for earnings under the rent a room relief will rise to €16,000.
An increase of up to €1 on a box of 20 cigarettes is also expected as is a 20 cent per ml tax on vapes, adding about 40 cent to a small single use disposable vape.
The reduction in kerosene costs will be for the lifetime of the Government.
The €200m levy on the banks will reappear in Budget 2027, the same level as 2026.
The era of Charlie McCreevy – where nobody had a clue what he was going to announce until he stood up in the Dáil – is well and truly gone, writes Harry McGee in this morning’s political digest.
The chances of a decentralisation style announcement today are as remote as Rockall.
The full digest can be read here.
What do we expect in Budget 2027? Cliff Taylor takes us through some options. Video: Alyson Henry. Edit: Dan Dennison What will the income tax changes mean?
Our consumer affairs correspondent Conor Pope has been crunching the numbers. He writes: The big winners – if winners isn’t too strong a word for it – from this afternoon’s budget are likely to be couples in a household where both earn in excess of €50,000 a year.
The entry point for the higher rate of income tax is set to rise from €44,000 to €46,500, which will save such households a total of €1,000 over the course of a year.
An increase of €125 in the personal tax credits will see the income tax bill for the couple fall by a further €250.
Sarah Burns – 2 hours ago
Budget package to include support for hosting Ryder Cup and Euro 2028
There will be €22 million in the budget package to support hosting the Ryder Cup in 2027 and co-hosting the 2028 European football championship.
There will also be an overall increase of €5m for current Irish language spending which will go towards Gaeltacht and language support schemes and language planning.
It will include funding of €1m to be provided for North-South co-operation to support the work of Foras na Gaeilge.
Current funding for island transport services will increase by €1.5m to €13m.
Capital expenditure continues for projects such as Inis Oirr pier, Conradh na Gaeilge headquarters on Harcourt Street in Dublin and Colaiste Lurgan in Indreabhán, Co Galway.
Budget 2027. Illustration: Paul Scott
Sarah Burns – 2 hours ago
We have some more details on the new savings scheme mooted by Minister for Finance Simon Harris over recent weeks.
The monthly limit for contributions will be €1,000, reports Cliff Taylor. This will be more than most people could afford but will limit the pace at which people can transfer existing investments.
The one remaining piece of information awaited is the total level of investment people can hold in the scheme before the special one per cent tax on the balance kicks in.
Minister for Finance Simon Harris. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collins Photos
Sarah Burns – 2 hours ago
Low income families will be supported, says public expenditure minister
Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers has outlined the Government’s priorities for the budget as he arrived into Government Buildings this morning.
“We’re using our social protection system to support low-income families, particularly those facing significant cost pressures,” he said. “This has been a priority in all the budgetary discussions, and I think you’ll see that reflected later on.”
Asked about prospective industrial action by public sector employees, he said: “I’ve been absolutely clear for weeks and months that we want to reach an agreement on public sector pay. We want industrial peace, and I urge trade union representatives to return to the table and begin constructive discussions.
“Industrial action is causing significant disruption to the public, and that disruption will worsen if matters continue to escalate. I’ll be making provision for and prioritising public sector pay in the decisions we’re making, and I hope those negotiations can now move forward.”
Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers said low income families will be supported. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collins Photos
Sarah Burns – 3 hours ago
Help to buy scheme and rental tax credit due to be increased
In terms of housing, first-time buyers will be able to access up to €35,000 towards the deposit on their first home, under the Help-to-Buy scheme. This increases the limit by €5,000.
The rent tax credit, currently amounting to €1,000 per year, is expected to be increased. A higher level of €1,200 per person was under discussion.
The tax-free rental income allowance is also expected to be extended to backyard cabins.
Modest increases to the three inheritance tax thresholds are expected.
Everything we know so far about Budget 2027 can be found here.
Minister for Housing James Browne. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA Wire
Sarah Burns – 3 hours ago
The main late budget change is in income tax, writes Cliff Taylor.
The Government had downplayed the potential gains here, talking of €400 a year for a single employee.
However, as Pat Leahy reported this morning, the numbers have grown. This was always likely given the size of the tax package.
The combination of a €2,500 rise in the income level at which people become liable for the higher 40 per cent tax rate and increases in the main tax credits will mean around €750 extra for a single middle earner and €1,500 for a two-income couple.
USC and PRSI changes will need to be counted in to come to a full tally.
Cliff Taylor Budget Analysis
Sarah Burns – 3 hours ago
The final budget negotiating sessions at Government Buildings on Monday came after protracted and often difficult negotiations over the weekend at which Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers came under pressure to concede to spending requests from several departments.
Chambers has insisted on sticking to a ceiling of a 6 per cent spending increase across Government as a whole, which has meant many Ministers have seen increases for their departments set at considerably lower than this because of higher increases in some big-spending departments. However, supplementary estimates – ie, budget top-ups – will still be necessary this year.
You can read more about that here.
Minister for Finance Simon Harris and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers at the Printworks, Dublin Castle, earlier this year.
Photograph: Dara Mac Dónaill/The Irish Times
Sarah Burns – 4 hours ago
Alongside live news updates, analysis, newsletters and videos, The Irish Times will have an expert team on hand to answer your questions in our Budget Q&A on irishtimes.com.
Do you have queries around income tax bands and what the end result will mean for your net pay? Or would you like to know about your specific situation when it comes to welfare rates and pensions? If so, Dominic Coyle of The Irish Times will be joined by Beryl Power and Ruth Gilligan from PwC to answer your questions.
The form to add submissions will be added here later today.
Beryl Power, Director, PwC private client services, Ruth Gilligan, Manager, PwC private client services, Dominic Coyle, Deputy Business Editor, The Irish Times
Sarah Burns – 4 hours ago
The Government will unveil another giveaway budget, which will include reductions in tax for middle-income earners worth up to €1,500 for a couple with a combined income of €100,000.
In addition, it is expected there will be small reductions to the existing 33 per cent rate of capital gains tax.
The tax-free threshold for inheritance tax from parents to children is expected to increase by €20,000 to €420,000, though some of these details were still being hammered out late on Monday night.
The restoration of excise on petrol and diesel, due to begin on November 1st, is expected to be postponed until March 1st, while significant reductions in carbon tax on home heating oil will also be announced.
You can read our lead budget story here and everything we know so far about the budget here.
Sarah Burns – 4 hours ago
Good morning. Budget day is finally upon us. Minister for Finance Simon Harris and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers will announce Budget 2027 in the Dáil from around 1pm today.
Follow irishtimes.com for updates throughout the day.
Budget 2027: ‘The main surprise will be the scale of how far they go on income tax, and how generous investment accounts are.’ Image: Paul Scott