The think-ins are supposed to be where the parties prepare for the hard graft of the parliamentary term to come – the budget, forthcoming legislation, political strategy and messaging.
But this September, all anyone wants to talk about is the presidential election.
Labour’s outing in Nenagh last week was dominated by the, er, difference of opinion between the former leader Alan Kelly and the incumbent Ivana Bacik about the wisdom of backing Catherine Connolly.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald used her think-in in Dún Laoghaire on Monday to declare that she was not going to stand as her party’s candidate.
Meanwhile, at the Fine Gael think-in in Mullingar – even though there was no sign of the party’s candidate Heather Humphreys – the presidency was the topic on everyone’s lips.
They are particularly interested in the outcome of the Fianna Fáil candidate selection process on Tuesday – and there is an expectation in Fine Gael that the presidential election will turn into an old-fashioned Fianna Fáil vs Fine Gael contest.
Like most observers, Fine Gaelers expect that the Fianna Fáil candidate will be the former Dublin football manager Jim Gavin, who takes a big lead in declared support into the selection process. And like most observers, they feel that Billy Kelleher will close the gap when the votes are actually counted, though not by enough to win the contest.
That would be the dream scenario for Fine Gael, if Kelleher did manage to confound expectations and overturn Gavin’s lead. It would be a massive reverse for party leader Micheál Martin, a blow to his credibility and a signal that his authority in his party is all but shot.
In Fianna Fáil, there is a belief that Kelleher will do well, but not well enough to unseat the leadership favourite Gavin. Both sides seem to share that analysis. But with such a high volume of votes undeclared, it’s impossible to know for sure.
Once Fianna Fáil makes up its mind, there will be two remaining sources of uncertainty about the presidential contest.
Sinn Féin has made the decision not to run its leader – but not, seemingly, on whether it will run a candidate at all, or if so, who it should be. McDonald’s declaration on Monday perhaps represented an acknowledgment by the party that it couldn’t go on with the will-she/won’t-she in relation to its most significant political asset. But there is no certainty on what comes next.
There appears to be little enthusiasm for the role on the Sinn Féin front bench, and a candidate from Northern Ireland – be it Stormont First Minister Michelle O’Neill, Belfast MP John Finucane or some other, as yet unfloated, name – would have to contend with the handicap of relative unfamiliarity in the Republic.
Mary McAleese managed that, of course. But she had a party that routinely won 40 per cent of the vote behind her. Bit of an advantage, that.
Sinn Féin has said it will hold talks with Catherine Connolly. But not running a candidate now and backing Connolly would look like a decision made from a position of political weakness – and not like a choice that the party would all endorse and row in behind. After all the dithering, Sinn Féin seems to be in the territory of least bad options.
Down south in the Kingdom of Kerry, the long march began for the Independent candidates seeking a nomination from four local authorities. Their task has been made immeasurably harder by the understandable reluctance among the big parties to facilitate their opponents. No councils have yet said no to them. But the chances of them saying yes are no better than sketchy.