{"id":105736,"date":"2025-10-26T23:47:10","date_gmt":"2025-10-26T23:47:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/105736\/"},"modified":"2025-10-26T23:47:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-26T23:47:10","slug":"betting-against-trump-acting-would-have-earned-investors-a-12-return-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/105736\/","title":{"rendered":"Betting against Trump acting would have earned investors a 12% return \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall b-it-article-body__text--left\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump<\/a> doesn\u2019t always chicken out, but betting that he will \u2013 the Taco trade \u2013 pays more reliably than his promises.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall b-it-article-body__text--left\">According to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/bloomberg\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/bloomberg\/\">Bloomberg<\/a> analysis of more than over wagers on US prediction market Polymarket, bettors consistently overestimated the odds of Trump acting on his threats. On average, they priced a 34 per cent chance of action; only 28 per cent of events occurred.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">The smart money made no such mistake. Between January 20th and September 30th, a simple strategy of betting against Trump acting would have earned a 12 per cent return, equalling the S&amp;P 500\u2019s gain over the same period.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Even better, a June-to-September version of the trade returned 19 per cent. Instead of learning, it seems bettors are increasingly likely to fall for Trump\u2019s bluster.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">The Taco trade is often cited as evidence of investor complacency: markets, it is said, have stopped taking Trump\u2019s threats seriously. This data suggests otherwise. True, Polymarket is not the stock market, but it\u2019s nevertheless notable that bettors are systematically overestimating Trump\u2019s follow-through.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph b-it-article-body__interstitial-link\">[\u00a0<a aria-label=\"Open related story\" class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/opinion\/2025\/05\/31\/cliff-taylor-the-taco-theory-trump-always-chickens-out-is-no-basis-for-an-economic-strategy\/\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ireland cannot base its economic strategy on the \u2018Taco\u2019 theory \u2013 Trump Always Chickens OutOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Of course, Trump still manages to do many things that once would have seemed unthinkable. Still, for all the noise about tariffs and threats, the soundest position for investors may be silence, and a quiet bet on nothing happening.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Donald Trump doesn\u2019t always chicken out, but betting that he will \u2013 the Taco trade \u2013 pays more&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105737,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[971,72,969,61,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-105736","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-bloomberg","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-donald-trump","11":"tag-ie","12":"tag-ireland"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}