The Consumer Technology Association<\/a> estimates that tariffs on consumer tech product imports could cut US purchasing power by roughly $123 billion and drive average retail prices sharply higher \u2014 by more than 30% for smartphones, 34% for laptops and tablets and 69% for video game consoles. AI-driven chip demand may add further pressure in the months ahead.<\/p>\n \u201cThe window to beat tariff-driven price increases has likely closed,\u201d said Willy Shih, a supply chain expert at Harvard Business School. As an example, Shih stocked up on camera and video equipment in April, just after tariffs were announced, since he knew they were manufactured in Thailand. Mark Mathews of the National Retail Federation also said electronic sales rose 30% during that period.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re going to shop anyway? \u201cLook for deals on Black Friday,\u201d Shih said.<\/p>\n Shop Early for Toy Trends<\/p>\n More inflated than past years<\/p>\n Not as inflated as past years<\/p>\n The toy market faces a double squeeze: most products are made in China, which remains subject to steep US tariffs, and consumer trends shift unpredictably. That combination makes it harder for retailers to gauge inventory needs, said Juli Lennett, vice president and industry advisor for toys at Circana, a data and tech provider to consumer goods companies, manufacturers and retailers.<\/p>\n \u201cShop early if your child wants something specific,\u201d she advised since the season\u2019s must-have toys always vanish sooner than many shoppers anticipate. Tariffs and viral social media trends, such as the recent Labubus craze, can make shortages more likely \u2014 Walmart<\/a>, Toy Insider<\/a> and Amazon<\/a> already have lists of toys at different price points that are popular this season.<\/p>\n For parents shopping beyond toys, prices for sporting equipment are running higher than usual, while musical instruments have held steady.<\/p>\n Brace for Higher Jewelry and Watch Prices<\/p>\n More inflated than past years<\/p>\n Gold prices surged to record highs<\/a> in October. Even as they ease, retailers report strong demand for the metal as a gift that holds value over time, said David Bonaparte, president and CEO of Jewelers of America.<\/p>\n The precious metal\u2019s role in Swiss luxury watches, combined with 39% tariffs on Switzerland<\/a>, could drive further price hikes. Tariffs on India \u2014 the world\u2019s largest exporter of diamonds, according to McKinsey<\/a> \u2014 have also put pressure on the industry, Bonaparte said.<\/p>\n Some relief may be coming for the broader jewelry market as US-India trade negotiations progress, especially since the US gets most of its polished diamond imports from India. As trade agreements shift, colored gemstones, polished diamonds and other jewelry have the potential to see reduced tariffs depending on their country of origin, though Bonaparte expects prices to rise through the holidays as inventories purchased ahead of the tariffs begin to dwindle.<\/p>\n His advice: Go to a trusted source. Those retailers may not offer major discounts, he said, but can guarantee authenticity and quality.<\/p>\n And when it comes to luxury watches, both Bonaparte and Stephan Shipe, economist and founder of Scholar Advising, said that now\u2019s a good time to buy before prices go up further in 2026.<\/p>\n Look for Apparel That Lasts<\/p>\n More inflated than past years<\/p>\n Men’s suits, sport coats, outerwear<\/p>\n Not as inflated as past years<\/p>\n When it comes to children\u2019s clothing, parents are delaying purchases of new pieces, said Marshal Cohen, the chief retail advisor at Circana. Burlington Stores, a budget shopping brand, said its young shoppers remain \u201cvalue-conscious,\u201d though not simply from a price perspective; they also care about quality and brand.<\/p>\n China\u2019s dominance in apparel and footwear manufacturing has added to pricing strain. Cohen said fast-turning categories such as clothing were hit first, while longer-cycle goods absorbed costs more gradually. One children\u2019s clothing maker, Carter\u2019s, said it is seeing \u201csome acceptance\u201d from consumers in raising some prices as tariffs take hold.<\/p>\n Steve Madden reported it is offsetting margin pressure through \u201cstrategic pricing\u201d and new sourcing, with wholesale orders beginning to normalize.<\/p>\n The overall message is that even with Black Friday deals, clothing and shoes will remain costly. If you\u2019re in the market for something new, buy items that will last.<\/p>\n Substitute to Find Savings on Holiday Meals<\/p>\n More inflated than past years<\/p>\n Not as inflated as past years<\/p>\n Putting together a holiday meal may be pricier this year. Demand for cheese and beef remains strong while US cattle herds stay small<\/a>, keeping meat prices elevated. While beef prices are much more inflated this year compared to past years, price growth for chicken and pork have moderated.<\/p>\n Tariffs on steel are rippling through machinery, transportation, manufacturing and packaging \u2014 and one surprising casualty is frozen vegetables. Climate change is also pushing up grocery bills by reducing crop yields. Coffee<\/a> and chocolate<\/a> have been hit especially hard, with poor harvests and tariffs keeping prices high.<\/p>\n Not every aisle is suffering. Shelf-stable fish \u2014 canned tuna, sardines and anchovies \u2014 are still selling for about a dollar a pack at major retailers, helped by longer shelf lives and ample supply. It\u2019s not all bargain-bin fare: upscale brands such as the direct-to-consumer Fishwife<\/a> are having a moment.<\/p>\n Food price fluctuations in general are caused by a complex web of factors with no one simple explanation or cause, said Ricky Volpe, a professor in California Polytechnic State University\u2019s agribusiness department. Overall, though, grocery prices have been relatively steady due to consumer flexibility and product averaging, even as producers and retailers brace for volatility.<\/p>\n \u201cIf consumers are willing to substitute away from steak and ground beef, they can achieve real savings in the poultry aisle by buying other products, by buying chicken breasts or plant-based meats or tofu or some seafoods,\u201d Volpe said as one example. He said shoppers can also cut costs by opting for grocers\u2019 in-house labels and taking advantage of store promotions.<\/p>\n Consider Wine for an Inflation-Friendly Gift<\/p>\n More inflated than past years<\/p>\n Not as inflated as past years<\/p>\n Distilled spirits tend to see stronger demand during the holidays, which could drive prices higher, said Scott Scanlon, executive vice president for alcohol beverages at Circana.<\/p>\n Beer, by contrast, may stay relatively stable. \u201cNobody really wants to take the price up,\u201d Scanlon said, noting that brewers remain focused on competitiveness in a price-sensitive market. Brand loyalty matters less when consumers are buying for volume rather than prestige.<\/p>\n Wine \u2014 a traditional gift category \u2014 has gone the other direction. Prices are \u201cmore deflated than normal,\u201d Scanlon said, citing the industry\u2019s well-documented headwinds: tariffs on European producers, declining consumption among members of Gen Z<\/a> and growing public health warnings about alcohol\u2019s risks.<\/p>\n Be Practical About Home Goods<\/p>\n More inflated than past years<\/p>\n Not as inflated as past years<\/p>\n Those who love interior design should keep an eye out for discounts and deals. Furniture trends move quickly, though production and shipping for big items can be slow by comparison, Cohen said. While the industry has faced tariff pressures from China and Vietnam \u2014 two major manufacturing hubs \u2014 furniture is still more promotional than other categories.<\/p>\n \u201cYou might try to front-run inventory for that, but if you get it wrong, then you\u2019re going to end up with a lot of stuff that\u2019s going to be promotional,\u201d Shih said about furniture trends. Excess stock often translates into lower prices for consumers.<\/p>\n Aside from furniture, if your gift idea leans on the more practical side, prices for appliances and tools are more inflated than in recent years while outdoor gear and pet products have stayed relatively stable.<\/p>\n Not as inflated as past years<\/p>\n![\"An](\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/graphics\/img\/piano.png\")
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