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This has put at risk one of the region\u2019s most valuable commodities, central to export revenues.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis rainfall system has been supporting the global cocoa industry for decades and now that environmental service is breaking down,\u201d said Joanne Bentley, a molecular ecologist and the study\u2019s author.<\/p>\n
The effects were wide ranging, she added. \u201cCarbon storage, biodiversity, water, services, heat protection, temperature regulation \u2014 these are all things that drive real economic risk if they are lost.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the Amazon\u2019s climatic influence has long been studied, the research is among the first to quantify the Congo Basin\u2019s transcontinental climate effects.<\/p>\n
There was a \u201cfairly live academic debate about how you model\u201d these effects, said Dominic Moran, professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Edinburgh, noting that the new study helped fill a vacuum in research on the Congo Basin rainforest.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The study combined deforestation trends, regional climate models and crop-response data to assess how declining rainfall could disrupt cocoa production across nine producing countries. <\/p>\n
Its findings suggest that clearing these forests could cut rainfall in West Africa\u2019s cocoa belt by as much as 20 per cent during critical growing seasons, threatening the yields that underpin three-quarters of global cocoa supply.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cocoa prices have soared in the past few years as disease outbreaks and adverse weather, driven by climate change in Ivory Coast and Ghana, have crushed yields.<\/p>\n
As prices hit record highs \u2014 with the price of a 100g bar of chocolate rising by 35 per cent in parts of Europe \u2014 consumer demand has softened.<\/p>\n
Rainforests regulate rainfall through evapotranspiration: trees draw groundwater up through their roots and release it through their leaves, creating clouds and sustaining a self-reinforcing cycle of rainfall.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n The Congo Basin\u2019s trees generate up to 83 per cent of local rainfall \u2014 more than in the Amazon \u2014 keeping the forest humid and sustaining continuous precipitation. Seasonal winds then carry this moisture westward, supplying almost a fifth of the rainfall in West Africa, including over Ivory Coast and Ghana, the heart of the world\u2019s cocoa belt.\u00a0<\/p>\n When forests are cleared, that \u201crain pump\u201d weakens. Deforestation not only cuts moisture production, it also alters regional wind patterns, weakening West Africa\u2019s monsoon flows. <\/p>\n The Congo Basin has already lost around 10 per cent of its tree cover since 2000 and deforestation is now accelerating, driven by small-scale agriculture, logging and charcoal production. \u00a0<\/p>\n More than half of its trees lie within the Democratic Republic of Congo<\/a>, which lost more than 1.2mn hectares of forest cover in 2024 alone. If current rates continue, 27 per cent of the forest could be destroyed by 2050 \u2014 a level scientists warn could push the region past a critical tipping point, leading to persistently drier conditions both locally and across West Africa.<\/p>\n Cocoa is among the most rainfall-dependent crops<\/a> in the tropics. Grown almost entirely by smallholders in humid equatorial zones, African production relies on rainfall rather than irrigation, and yields collapse when drought sets in.<\/p>\n Zero Carbon Analytics projects by 2050, cumulative losses could reach 1.6mn tonnes in Ivory Coast \u2014 about 80 per cent of current output \u2014 and a further 866,000 tonnes in Ghana, 377,000 in Nigeria and 205,000 in Cameroon.<\/p>\n Cocoa makes up roughly one-third of export earnings in Ivory Coast and more than half of agricultural exports in its neighbours, leaving their economies highly exposed.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The price impact would be global. The study estimates cocoa could reach $68.10 per kilogramme by 2050, almost six times the 2030 level, with deforestation accounting for about 40 per cent of the increase. Without further forest loss, the 2050 price would be closer to $41.<\/p>\n Europe, the world\u2019s biggest cocoa importer, would bear much of the cost, the study found. If shipment volumes remained unchanged, deforestation alone could add $33.8bn a year to EU import bills by 2050. <\/p>\n The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany would see annual increases of $13.1bn, $6bn and $4.4bn, respectively, pushing cumulative extra costs to about $256bn compared to 2025 \u2014 almost double the global industry\u2019s 2024 market value.<\/p>\n Recommended<\/p>\n Not all researchers agree on the scale of those risks. Moran said such estimates might overlook how farmers and the cocoa industry could adapt in the face of a changing climate. \u201cThe approach they take is that the crop is where it is, the crop gets hammered because of drought and there\u2019s no substitution effect,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s questionable, because most crops will get grown in other places. Farmers themselves will diversify.\u201d<\/p>\n Some major chocolate makers have already started adjusting their strategies. High-quality chocolate and cocoa product maker Barry Callebaut, which lost 20 per cent of its market value last year during the cocoa crisis, is investing in new areas outside West Africa, particularly in Latin America, where rainfall is more stable and yields are less volatile.\u00a0<\/p>\n Researchers at Zero Carbon Analytics argue that the larger threat lies in timing. Their analysis indicates impacts remain manageable through the early 2030s but accelerate sharply after 2040, as rainfall systems degrade and the Congo Basin\u2019s role as a regional moisture source collapses. They also find that prevention would be far cheaper than inaction.<\/p>\n Climate Capital Where climate change meets business, markets and politics.\u00a0Explore the FT\u2019s coverage here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
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