The job market in 2025 has been considered static. That\u2019s both good: Layoffs have been steady, and the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards. And bad: It\u2019s hard to find a job if you\u2019re looking.<\/p>\n
But a raft of job cut announcements<\/a> this fall from big companies like Amazon, Verizon, and Target calls into question the state of what has been deemed a \u201cno-hire, no-fire\u201d labor market.<\/p>\n Economists are certainly watching the trend with a careful eye.<\/p>\n \u201cAll the signs point to we\u2019re moving from \u2018no-hire, no-fire\u2019 labor market to \u2018no-hire, start-to-fire’ labor market,\u201d said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.<\/p>\n The US is about to get its first official report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the country\u2019s unemployment rate since August.<\/p>\n The jobs report will only cover data for September \u2014 thanks to the government shutdown \u2014 and will reflect the period before layoff announcements began mounting, accounting for the worst October for planned cuts<\/a> since 2003, according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.<\/p>\n Learn more: Worried about financial security? Here’s how to protect your finances.<\/a><\/p>\n WARN notices, or the heads-up big companies are required to provide ahead of mass layoffs, also spiked in 21 states last month to reach 39,006, among the highest levels in records dating back to 2006, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. (The number still trailed layoffs from the 2020 pandemic and Great Recession, as well as May of this year.)<\/p>\n Ahead of those announcements, layoffs and the unemployment rate had otherwise been considered relatively stable, though people were still struggling to find work as the economy added few new positions. Whether that\u2019s set to shift in a significant way as companies plan workforce reductions \u2014 a reality in corporate America even when the economy is considered strong \u2014 is up for debate.<\/p>\n The question has caught the attention of officials at the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n \u201cOne thing on the soft data that I\u2019ve been hearing more and more, talking to a lot of people \u2026 is four to six weeks ago we were still in this kind of \u2018no-hire, no-fire\u2019 mode,\u201d Fed Governor Chris Waller said Monday.<\/a> \u201cThey\u2019re starting to talk about layoffs. They\u2019re starting to plan for them in the future. It could be AI-related; it could be a lot of other things.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s what\u2019s got me more concerned,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Related: How a CD can help you financially prepare for \u2014 and survive \u2014 a layoff<\/a><\/p>\n Meanwhile, Tom Barkin, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, also said Tuesday<\/a> that some businesses are painting a bit more of a negative picture than what official data has shown so far.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you ask businesses how they see the labor market today, they say \u2018balanced.\u2019 But as they describe that \u2018balance\u2019 in more detail, it doesn\u2019t seem so,\u201d Barkin said. \u201cWith the exception of skilled trades, labor feels quite available with plenty of quality applicants per opening.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cRecent layoff announcements by sizable firms like Amazon, Verizon, and Target give additional cause for caution,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n So far, available data from private sources suggests a labor market that\u2019s \u201cgrowing very slowly or flat,\u201d supporting the no-hire, no-fire narrative, said Robert Shimer, professor in economics at the University of Chicago. He thinks the September jobs report likely will show more of the same. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project a gain of about 50,000 positions.<\/p>\n \u201cBy the time we get the November report, it\u2019s possible we\u2019ll start seeing in the aggregate numbers an increase in firing and maybe a change in hiring as well,\u201d Shimer said, but the kind of big job cut announcements that tend to get a lot of attention still typically only result in small movements in the layoff rate. <\/a><\/p>\n What may be of greater consequence is the economy\u2019s lack of hiring: Shimer\u2019s research has shown that \u201cfluctuations in unemployment are mainly driven by periods where firms don\u2019t hire very much, and unemployed workers stay unemployed for longer, rather than particularly being about spikes in layoffs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n At this point, though, it\u2019s clear that the labor market is showing some signs of cracking, Long said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe question is really: How much firing is going on?\u201d she added.<\/p>\n The government\u2019s report showing the number of job openings and layoffs for October is set to be released Dec. 9, though the unemployment rate and full jobs report for that month will not be published, the Labor Department announced Wednesday. <\/a><\/p>\n Instead, establishment survey data from October will be released alongside the full November jobs report, scheduled for release Dec. 16.<\/p>\n Emma Ockerman<\/a> is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter<\/a><\/p>\n Click here for the latest personal finance news to help you with investing, paying off debt, buying a home, retirement, and more<\/a><\/p>\n Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo <\/a>Finance<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The job market in 2025 has been considered static. 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