Nic Doggett, David Ord and John Ingles thrash out the weekend’s feature races and provide their views on the action from Haydock, Ascot and Punchestown.<\/p>\n
How do you see the Betfair Chase at this stage?<\/p>\n
David Ord: It all depends on the ground. It seems from a distance at least that the track took the 16mm of rain on Tuesday well, with the surface described as good to soft, soft in places.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s more forecast on Saturday morning too, up to 6mm. If it gets deep, then the questions will be asked of Grey Dawning again for all he gave it a wonderful go last year only to be run down late by Royale Pagaille.<\/p>\n
Heavy ground and that rival\u2019s hat-trick bid could be well and truly on, but that surface will also suit Haiti Coleurs who is going from strength to strength. He\u2019s blown the cobwebs away with a win over hurdles at Newbury and is a strong-staying, slick-jumping, powerful, front-runner. That\u2019s what you want around here.<\/p>\n
But I think it boils down to the fact Grey Dawning<\/a> is the best horse in the race. This is his Grade One for the season and with the yard flying I think he\u2019ll get the job done this time.<\/p>\n Nic Doggett: \u2018Grey Dawning is the best horse in the race\u2019<\/p>\n He is, Dave, although not by much according to Timeform who have him just 2 lb clear of Royale Pagaille on the figures, with a further 8 lb back to Haiti Coleurs for all the progressive stayer does have a \u2018small p\u2019 attached to his rating which means he is expected to improve. <\/p>\n I think tactics will be key; will Harry Skelton ask Grey Dawning to dominate on his reappearance \u2013 tactics that worked best for him last season – in a race that also features frontrunners Haiti Couleurs and Handstands? And if so, would that be asking too much? <\/p>\n I\u2019d normally be keen on Royale Pagaille<\/a> completing his hat-trick as he will have been primed for this and the nature of this stamina sapping race is perfect; my only reservation is stable form. Venetia Williams had eight winners from 33 runners last November, and 17 from 51 in the same month the year before. So far this November she is 1\/14 which must be a worry. <\/p>\n John Ingles: I\u2019d agree with Dave about the ground being important as to whether last year’s result is replicated or not.<\/p>\n As things stand, it doesn\u2019t look like being as testing as last year, which would favour Grey Dawning turning the tables on Royale Pagaille who is rising twelve now after all. But Grey Dawning is yet to prove himself a top-class chaser in the mould of some winners of this race over the years, and I\u2019d be happy to take him on with Haiti Couleurs<\/a> who isn\u2019t there yet either but is very much going the right way.<\/p>\n As Dave says, he looks tailor-made for the demands of Haydock, and while he handles heavy ground, there\u2019s nothing in his record to suggest he actually needs it that testing.<\/p>\n Who\u2019s the best bet on the card at Ascot?<\/p>\n David Ord: I thought Brookie<\/a> was half interesting in the Castello Banfi Hurst Park Handicap Chase at Ascot.<\/p>\n He kept good company in the spring after winning a Doncaster handicap from a mark of 130, including chasing home Kalif Du Berlais in a Grade One at Aintree. He returned in a Cheltenham handicap last month and shaped with plenty of promise in finishing third behind the reopposing Calico.<\/p>\n He\u2019s seven pounds better off with that rival for seven lengths beating and fared best of those held up in the race. A strong pace is likely in this, and I think he\u2019s handicapped to have his say with that run under his belt.<\/p>\n Nic Doggett: Cartmel has rarely been the go-to course for identifying strong handicaps, which sometimes undersells the competitive nature of racing at the idiosyncratic Lake District venue.<\/p>\n However, division one of the Traffic Management Handicap Hurdle from May is worth paying attention to, as the second and third have won since being firmly put in their place by the Warren Greatrex-trained mare Shantwopointfive<\/a>.<\/p>\n Her previous efforts in the spring behind Greyval are equally solid, and it\u2019s no surprise to see her back over hurdles having jumped poorly when pulled up on her chasing bow at Kempton earlier this month. <\/p>\n A former point winner with plenty of stamina in her bloodlines (dam from the family of Best Mate), she looks a big price as she steps up in trip to three miles for the first time. <\/p>\n John Ingles: I\u2019m looking forward to seeing Il Est Francais<\/a>, now back with former trainer Tom George, in the 1965 Chase. He\u2019d have been interesting on level terms, but the fact that all his rivals are having to give weight to a King George runner-up suggests they have plenty on their plate.<\/p>\n His jumping will be a real asset around here, as he\u2019s shown before at Kempton, and he\u2019s got a great record fresh, winning first time out at Auteuil for the last three seasons.<\/p>\n What are you expecting from the Morgiana?<\/p>\n David Ord: It\u2019s a shame we don\u2019t get to find out if Anzadam is a potential Champion Hurdle candidate, but this wouldn\u2019t have been a gimmie due to the presence of Irancy and now Lossiemouth<\/a> is set to run here rather than in the following week\u2019s Hatton\u2019s Grace, it all looks a bit tricky.<\/p>\n Irancy\u2019s one blowout last term came in the Michael O\u2019Sullivan Supreme at Cheltenham, but he was good at Fairyhouse next time and proved more than capable of picking up the pieces when Kopek Des Bordes flopped in the Grade One novice at Punchestown.<\/p>\n With Lossiemouth taking on the boys for the first time since falling in the Irish Champion Hurdle, we should get a good idea of how Irancy<\/a> compares and where he \u2013 and the likes of Anzadam \u2013 sit in the Closutton pecking order. <\/p>\n Nic Doggett: It\u2019s odd to think that Irancy is actually a year older than stablemate Lossiemouth when you consider what the mare has achieved (or not achieved if you\u2019re the type \u2013 like me \u2013 who wanted her to run in the Champion Hurdle).<\/p>\n The betting should tell the story in all of these small field clashes that inevitably see the leading lights of the yard butt heads. Time and time again we\u2019ve seen the market rather than the form book give us the biggest clues and I\u2019d expect that to be the case again this season.<\/p>\n With the ground in her favour and in receipt of 7 lb, it would need to be a very rusty run for Lossiemouth<\/a> not to prevail and the market would surely show if that was expected. <\/p>\n John Ingles: All things being equal, this looks a straightforward task for Lossiemouth<\/a>, though Willie Mullins has had some short-priced favourites turned over in this, including State Man last year and Faugheen on two occasions a bit further back.<\/p>\n The fact she\u2019s getting weight from three inferior rivals won\u2019t tell us much, but hopefully it will be a smooth start to a campaign leading towards the Champion Hurdle.<\/p>\n Same question for the John Durkan?<\/p>\n David Ord: Plenty. Next!<\/p>\n Look, it\u2019s the starting point for another bunch of Mullins\u2019 big guns. Fact To File<\/a> won it last year and probably will again, Gaelic Warrior will keep him honest if starting this campaign as he ended the last, while Fastorslow is bang in it if fit and firing after missing a year.<\/p>\n It speaks volumes that the best horse in the race, Inothewayurthinkin, is a 7\/1 chance despite Gavin Cromwell insisting he\u2019s more forward than he was for the race last season.<\/p>\n A Grade One but one in which most of those in it have an eye on the future. They will with Fact To File as well but, as the market suggests, he\u2019s the most obvious winner.<\/p>\n Nic Doggett: I think Dave has summed that up pretty well, and I agree that Fact To File \u2018probably will [win] again\u2019, but I\u2019m interested to see how Brown Advisory winner Lecky Watson<\/a> gets on if returning to action here.<\/p>\n He\u2019s got an excellent record fresh, has always had the size and scope to improve significantly over fences on what he achieved over hurdles, and I can see him giving it a good go from the front as that style seems to suit him best. He’s capable of emphasizing any weaknesses in match fitness for some of the bigger names if fully tuned up himself. <\/p>\n John Ingles: You\u2019d think one or two of these might have fancied their chances in the Betfair Chase instead but, yes, as already implied, this is just a starting point for plenty of them.<\/p>\n Heart Wood<\/a> has had the recent run (replay below) that the Mullins team all lack, this is his sort of trip, and he chased home Fact To File in the Ryanair, so he could make a bolder showing than the ratings suggest.<\/p>\n More from Sporting LifeSafer gambling<\/p>\n We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.<\/p>\n If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline \/ GamCare<\/a> on 0808 8020 133.<\/p>\n Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org<\/a> and gamblingtherapy.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nic Doggett, David Ord and John Ingles thrash out the weekend’s feature races and provide their views on…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":151478,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[61,60,112],"class_list":["post-151477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sports","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=151477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151477\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/151478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=151477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=151477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}