Legendary investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has issued a stark warning regarding the future impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and humanoid robots, predicting a dramatic increase in wealth inequality that will necessitate a new \u201credistribution policy\u201d. Dalio articulated his concerns, suggesting that these advanced technologies are poised to benefit the top 1% to 10% of the population significantly more than everyone else, potentially leading to profound societal challenges.<\/p>\n
Speaking on \u201cThe Diary Of A CEO<\/a>\u201d podcast, Dalio described a future where humanoid robots, smarter than humans, and advanced AI systems, powered by trillions of dollars in investment, could render many current professions obsolete. He questioned the need for lawyers, accountants, and medical professionals if highly intelligent robots with PhD-level knowledge become commonplace, stating, \u201cwe will not need a lot of those jobs.\u201d This technological leap, while promising \u201cgreat advances,\u201d also carries the potential for \u201cgreat conflicts.\u201d<\/p>\n He predicted \u201ca limited number of winners and a bunch of losers,\u201d with the likely result being much greater polarity. With the top 1% to 10% \u201cbenefiting a lot,\u201d he foresees that being a dividing force. He described the current business climate on AI and robotics as a \u201ccrazy boom,\u201d but the question that\u2019s really on his mind is: why would you need even a highly skilled professional if there\u2019s a \u201chumanoid robot that is smarter than all of us and has a PhD and everything.\u201d Perhaps surprisingly, the founder of the biggest hedge fund in history suggested that redistribution will be sorely needed.<\/p>\n Five big forces<\/p>\n \u201cThere certainly needs to be a redistribution policy,\u201d Dalio told host Steven Bartlett, without directly mentioning universal basic income. He clarified that this will have to more than \u201cjust a redistribution of money policy because uselessness and money may not be a great combination.\u201d In other words, if you redistribute money but don\u2019t think about how to put people to work, that could have negative effects in a world of autonomous agents. The ultimate takeaway, Dalio said, is \u201cthat has to be figured out, and the question is whether we\u2019re too fragmented to figure that out.\u201d <\/p>\n Dalio\u2019s remarks echo those of computer science professor Roman Yampolskiy, who sees AI creating up to 80 hours of free time<\/a> per week for most people. But AI is also showing clear signs of shrinking the jobs market<\/a> for recent grads, with one study seeing a 13% drop in AI-exposed jobs<\/a> since 2022. Major revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that AI has begun \u201cautomating away tech jobs,\u201d an economist said in a statement to Fortune<\/a> in early September.<\/p>\n Dalio said he views this technological acceleration as the fifth of five \u201cbig forces\u201d that create an approximate 80-year cycle throughout history. He explained that human inventiveness, particularly with new technologies, has consistently raised living standards over time. However, when people don\u2019t believe the system works for them, he said, internal conflicts and \u201cwars between the left and the right\u201d can erupt. Both the U.S. and UK are currently experiencing these kinds of wealth and values gaps, he said, leading to internal conflict and a questioning of democratic systems.<\/p>\n Drawing on his extensive study of history, which spans 500 years and covers the rise and fall of empires, Dalio sees a historical precedent for such transformative shifts. He likened the current era to previous evolutions, from the agricultural age, where people were treated \u201cessentially like oxen,\u201d to the industrial revolutions where machines replaced physical labor. He said he\u2019s concerned about a similar thing with mental labor, as \u201cour best thinking may be totally replaced.\u201d Dalio highlighted that throughout history, \u201cintelligence matters more than anything\u201d as it attracts investment and drives power.<\/p>\n Pessimistic outlook<\/p>\n Despite the \u201ccrazy boom\u201d in AI and robotics, Dalio\u2019s outlook on the future of major powers like the UK and U.S. was not optimistic, citing high debt, internal conflict, and geopolitical factors, in addition to a lack of innovative culture and capital markets in some regions. While personally \u201cexcited\u201d by the potential of these technologies, Dalio\u2019s ultimate concern rests on \u201chuman nature\u201d. He questions whether people can \u201crise above this\u201d to prioritize the \u201ccollective good\u201d and foster \u201cwin-win relationships,\u201d or if greed and power hunger will prevail, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n Not all market watchers see a crazy boom as such a good thing. Even OpenAI CEO Sam Alman himself has said it resembles a \u201cbubble<\/a>\u201d in some respects. Goldman Sachs has calculated that a bubble popping could wipe out up to 20%<\/a> of the S&P 500\u2019s valuation. And some long-time critics of the current AI landscape, such as Gary Marcus<\/a>, disagree with Dalio entirely, arguing that the bubble is due to pop because the AI technology currently on the market is too error-prone to be relied upon, and therefore can\u2019t be scaled away. Stanford computer science professor Jure Leskovec told Fortune<\/a> that AI is a powerful but imperfect tool and it\u2019s boosting \u201chuman expertise\u201d in his classroom, including the hand-written and hand-graded exams that he\u2019s using to really test his students\u2019 knowledge. <\/p>\n For this story,\u00a0Fortune\u00a0used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.\u00a0<\/p>\n