Indeed Hiring Lab\u2019s 2026 Canadian Jobs & Hiring Trends Report<\/a> described 2025 as \u201csoft, but fairly stable,\u201d noting that \u201cwhile these developments filtered into employer demand, the response wasn\u2019t dramatic.\u201d<\/p>\n
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It found job vacancies easing from 3.1% in Q3 2024 to 2.8% in Q3 2025, with postings on Indeed essentially flat heading into year\u2011end.<\/p>\n
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Economic forecasts in the report pointed to real GDP growth rebounding to \u201cabout 1.6% year\u2011over\u2011year by the end of 2026, up from an estimated just 0.5% growth in 2025,\u201d a pace \u201clikely sufficient for the unemployment rate to edge lower and the job vacancy rate to stabilize.\u201d<\/p>\n
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For now, though, the jobs backdrop looked more stagnant than strong. Over the three months to November 2025, \u201cthe layoff rate of employees was down 9% from its 2017\u20132019 average, while hiring rates were down 22% over the same period,\u201d reinforcing a \u201clow hire\u2011low fire labour market.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Younger workers felt the crunch most, with the share of 15\u201324\u2011year\u2011olds who had never worked rising to 26% from 21% three years earlier, and long\u2011term joblessness climbing among prime\u2011age Canadians.<\/p>\n
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Regional gaps were stark. Ontario posted one of the highest unemployment rates at 7.6%, with the sharpest increase since 2019, while Quebec\u2019s jobless rate sat at 5.4%, the lowest in the country and roughly where it stood pre\u2011pandemic.<\/p>\n
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Quebec job seekers were also less pessimistic, with just 28% saying they lacked confidence about finding work quickly, versus 34% Canada\u2011wide.<\/p>\n
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For housing and mortgage markets, that uneven picture intersected with rate\u2011path uncertainty. Bank of Canada\u2019s final 2025 decision noted that the policy rate ended the year at 2.25%, \u201ca brightening outlook for variable-rate mortgage holders and HELOC (home equity line of credit) borrowers,\u201d even as \u201cCanada\u2019s national housing sector still shows\u00a0no signs of a sharp recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n
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The piece warned that traders have\u00a0already \u201cramp[ed] up expectations of a potential rate hike\u201d in 2026 after a \u201cresilient labour market and a slight dip in the national unemployment rate,\u201d with a steady rate through 2026 now seen as the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n
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The Indeed report\u2019s message for mortgage professionals is less about a turning point than a slow grind. Population growth \u201ccould turn negative in 2026\u201d as non\u2011permanent residents leave, even as mentions of AI in job postings nearly doubled to 5.9% of postings and 29% of workers reported using AI regularly at work \u2013 shifts that could reshape where higher\u2011paying jobs emerge next.<\/p>\n
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A still\u2011soft, regionally fragmented labour market, coupled with policy uncertainty on trade, immigration and rates, means\u00a0originations are more likely to be driven by targeted pockets of demand and refinance opportunities than by a broad\u2011based surge in buying power.<\/p>\n
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Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada\u2019s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n
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