{"id":236984,"date":"2026-01-10T00:52:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T00:52:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/236984\/"},"modified":"2026-01-10T00:52:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T00:52:14","slug":"how-many-oscars-will-marty-supreme-win-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/236984\/","title":{"rendered":"How Many Oscars Will \u2018Marty Supreme\u2019 Win in 2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n \"Gold
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Oscar Futures<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Keeping pace with Hollywood\u2019s perpetual awards horserace. Sign up for the newsletter\u00a0here<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n

\n Photo: A24\n <\/p>\n

Usually, our \u201cGold Rush\u201d column and our \u201cOscar Futures\u201d predictions are joined in holy matrimony, arriving hand in hand on your screens every week. However, since we already published our Golden Globes predictions<\/a> separately, the penultimate edition of Oscar Futures will stand alone. In the meantime, here\u2019s a sampler of who we think will win two of the biggest prizes Sunday night.<\/p>\n

Best Motion Picture \u2013 Drama<\/p>\n

Frankenstein<\/p>\n

Hamnet<\/p>\n

It Was Just an Accident<\/p>\n

The Secret Agent<\/p>\n

Sentimental Value<\/p>\n

Sinners<\/p>\n

One of the most suspenseful awards of the night, this prize will determine which lucky contender gets the honor of being considered the No. 2 horse in the Oscars race behind One Battle After Another. In all likelihood, it\u2019ll be one of the quartet of Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, and Sinners, all of which also earned Director and Screenplay noms at the Globes. In a vacuum, I\u2019d say Sinners has the edge, but the fact that Ryan Coogler\u2019s film couldn\u2019t garner any acting nominations outside of Michael B. Jordan makes me think Globes voters liked it less than the general populace did. So let\u2019s zag a bit and throw it to Hamnet, which has been quietly lurking since winning the TIFF People\u2019s Choice Award. Chlo\u00e9 Zhao\u2019s film showed up well with SAG and could come roaring back with a big win on Sunday.<\/p>\n

The likely winner: Hamnet<\/p>\n

The fun pick: Sinners<\/p>\n

Best Motion Picture \u2013 Musical or Comedy<\/p>\n

Blue Moon<\/p>\n

Bugonia<\/p>\n

Marty Supreme<\/p>\n

No Other Choice<\/p>\n

Nouvelle Vague<\/p>\n

One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Warner Bros. will swear there was absolutely no calculation involved in running One Battle After Another as a Comedy at the Globes. If so, the field just happened to shake out awfully nice for the presumed Oscar front-runner: As with Jessie Buckley in Drama Actress, all the heat\u2019s on the other side of the bracket. In fact, they should spare us the phony suspense and just present this award first. Why make Paul Thomas Anderson always wait around until the end of the night? Let the man rest!<\/p>\n

The likely winner: One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

The fun pick: Literally anything else winning would be the biggest shock of awards season thus far.<\/p>\n

Every week between now and January 22, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year\u2019s Oscars race. In our \u201cOscar Futures\u201d column, we\u2019ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who\u2019s up, who\u2019s down, and who\u2019s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.<\/p>\n

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Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos: A24\n <\/p>\n

For A24, it was a Marty Christmas and a Safdie New Year. The ping-pong biopic lit up the holiday box office and now looks on course to become the studio\u2019s highest-grossing film ever. Anecdotally, this is the awards-season title that has most broken through with regular viewers: Over the break, everyone from my mother-in-law in Arizona to my cousin in Belfast asked me if I\u2019d seen it \u2014 another coup by the studio\u2019s vaunted marketing department. As Marty mania was sweeping the globe, the film also solidified its spot in the top tier of Best Picture contenders by earning noms from every major guild: SAG<\/a>, the DGA<\/a>, the ASC<\/a>, and the PGA<\/a>. A24 may only be able to handle one Best Picture contender at a time, but it has proved that it can take that one film awfully far.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Atsushi Nishijima\/Focus Features\n <\/p>\n

The Producers Guild Awards are our most blockbuster-friendly precursor, so it was all the more notable when those voters left both Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good off their top-ten list. In their place were summer hits like F1 and Weapons \u2026 but also Bugonia, hardly anyone\u2019s idea of a commercial juggernaut. Throw in SAG nominations for the film\u2019s two stars and a strong showing at the BAFTA longlists<\/a>, and it appears there is indeed passion inside the industry for the fourth iteration of the Yorgos Lanthimos\u2013Emma Stone project. After being dinged for not living up to high expectations, the dark comedy is back in the Oscars picture.<\/p>\n

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams<\/p>\n

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Photo: Michael Buckner\/Variety via Getty Images\n <\/p>\n

A brash young upstart aims to upset the established order by cracking into a field controlled by snooty Europeans: It\u2019s the plot of Marty Supreme, but it\u2019s also the journey Safdie\u2019s on this season as he seeks his first Oscar nomination. Having earned a DGA nom over the likes of Joachim Trier and Jafar Panahi, he now appears well on his way. Still, given the directing branch\u2019s well-known affinity for venerable international auteurs, repeating the feat with the Academy will be tougher.<\/p>\n

\"Celebrities <\/p>\n

Photo: John Parra\/2015 John Parra\n <\/p>\n

It\u2019s alive! From being all but left for dead after a muted Venice reception, Frankenstein came roaring back to life at the guilds, scoring a Best Ensemble nomination from SAG and an ASC nom to go alongside a DGA nod for del Toro himself. As was previously the case with Nightmare Alley, the industry is seeing more electricity in del Toro\u2019s maximalist vision than the Letterboxd crowd did.<\/p>\n

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Ryan Coogler, Sinners; Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Chlo\u00e9 Zhao, Hamnet<\/p>\n

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When Chalamet was trying to drum up the Marty Supreme box office, he spake as a child<\/a>, he understood as a child<\/a>, he dressed as a child<\/a>. But when that task was accomplished, he put away childish things. In his recent appearances on the awards circuit \u2014 including the Critics Choice Awards, where he won Best Actor<\/a> \u2014 he\u2019s cut a more modest, soft-spoken figure. Is he simply knuckling down and trying to convince voters to take him seriously as a potential Oscar winner? Or, as some observers have theorized, could this be another meta-performance: Is Chalamet essentially replaying his character\u2019s own arc on the campaign trail?<\/p>\n

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Photo: Neon\/Everett Collection\n <\/p>\n

Its awards show is airing on Netflix this year, but SAG\u2019s nominations felt awfully CBS News: America First! The guild\u2019s voters snubbed every non-English-language movie in the field, including Moura and the rest of his Neon brethren. Compounding the damage, he also missed at the BAFTA longlists. I think he\u2019ll win the Globe, but if he doesn\u2019t, suddenly there\u2019s no more runway left. While this category is open enough that Moura should still make it in at the Oscars, the argument that he\u2019s secretly Chalamet\u2019s biggest competition looks a lot weaker than it did on Monday.<\/p>\n

Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent<\/p>\n

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Photo: Focus Features\n <\/p>\n

Should we chalk Hudson\u2019s unexpected SAG nomination up to the guild\u2019s penchant for the more, well, basic contenders? Perhaps, but despite middling reviews, her performance as a real-life Neil Diamond cover singer keeps coming up in Best Actress discussions, and just this week, she got a co-sign from the well-connected Demi Moore<\/a> and a spot on the BAFTA longlist. Even highbrow observers like Mark Harris<\/a> think Hudson could crack the final five on the strength of an \u201cI didn\u2019t know she had it in her\u201d campaign.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Kasper Tuxen\n <\/p>\n

Like Moura, SAG left Reinsve and her co-stars out in the cold. Lest you think this was a case of AFTRA\u2019s TikTok stars refusing to read subtitles, the Directors Guild followed suit by blanking Joachim Trier. I\u2019ve seen speculation<\/a> that these misses were the result of Neon lagging in uploading its films to the Academy streaming portal, though I\u2019m not sure how we square that with the studio\u2019s titles outperforming expectations on the Oscar shortlists. Whatever the case, take it as a sign that, beyond Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne, no one\u2019s seat is safe in this race.<\/p>\n

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You; Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia<\/p>\n

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Photo: Netflix\n <\/p>\n

Elordi\u2019s victory was the biggest shock of the Critics Choice Awards. You can say he only pulled it off because Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn split the OBAA vote, but never mind: This is still a giant step forward for hunk representation in Hollywood. In becoming a legitimate Supporting Actor contender, the six-six Australian has officially done what Charles Melton couldn\u2019t. Anyone who had Elordi as the first Euphoria kid to be nominated for an Oscar, get ready to collect your winnings.<\/p>\n

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Photo: Warner Bros.\/Everett Collection\n <\/p>\n

Even when SAG went hard for Sinners, Lindo couldn\u2019t get traction, as the guild went for his co-star Miles Caton instead. (Caton also won the Critics Choice Best Young Actor\/Actress award.) The London-born actor is now counting on BAFTA to save him. Considering that group\u2019s issues recognizing African American stories in the past, that\u2019s not an enviable position, though the silver lining is that Lindo did make its Supporting Actor longlist.<\/p>\n

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Paul Mescal, Hamnet; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, Sentimental Value<\/p>\n

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Photo: Warner Bros.\n <\/p>\n

A few weeks ago, I asked whether Madigan might be this year\u2019s version of J.Lo in Hustlers. How quickly things change! Once Madigan followed up her New York Film Critics Circle victory with a win at the Critics Choice Awards, pundits are now beginning to wonder if she\u2019s actually the front-runner. I\u2019d like to see her do it at an industry precursor to say for sure, but Weapons sneaking into the PGA lineup helps assuage any doubts that Zach Cregger\u2019s film is a media-only thing.<\/p>\n

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Photo: A24\n <\/p>\n

A\u2019zion got the SAG nomination everyone thought would go to one of the Sentimental Value ladies, cementing the sense that she, not Gwyneth Paltrow, is the Marty Supreme love interest to watch. (Though both women made it onto the BAFTA longlist.) So far, this nod has been taken more as a sign of Marty\u2019s strength rather than A\u2019zion herself, though it\u2019s worth remembering that just last season, Chalamet\u2019s brunette co-star Monica Barbaro kick-started her own Supporting Actress bid with a nom from SAG. Besides, it would be a fun piece of awards trivia if, a year after Pamela Adlon\u2019s onscreen daughter<\/a> won an Oscar, her real-life daughter got nominated as well.<\/p>\n

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n


\n See All<\/p>\n

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