{"id":270880,"date":"2026-01-29T22:42:15","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T22:42:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/270880\/"},"modified":"2026-01-29T22:42:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T22:42:15","slug":"the-aftermath-of-storm-chandra-ground-conditions-uncertainties-predicted-rainfall-and-flooding-possibilities-met-eireann","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/270880\/","title":{"rendered":"The Aftermath of Storm Chandra: Ground conditions, uncertainties, predicted rainfall and flooding possibilities – Met \u00c9ireann"},"content":{"rendered":"

Issued Thursday 29th January 2026<\/p>\n

Given recent rainfall, river levels and antecedent conditions, further flooding is possible in places over the coming days. Currently, rainfall warnings have been issued for today (Thursday) and tomorrow (Friday). While there are some uncertainties in the weather forecast, especially for Friday, rainfall amounts that could be below warning thresholds may be enough to result in large impacts.<\/p>\n

The month of January has been characterised by frequent rainfall and localised extremes. The image below depicts the above normal rainfall amounts countrywide over the past seven days with the largest deviations from the average in the south and east.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1: Rainfall: Past seven days<\/p>\n

Following recent rainfall, many rivers are at or above bank-full levels. This rainfall, combined with saturated soils, has caused significant rises in river levels and surface water accumulation, particularly across southeastern and eastern areas.<\/p>\n

A secondary developing depression is forecast to track near to the country on Friday but there has been a huge amount of uncertainty with the track of this system and by extension, the associated rainfall that can be expected with it.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2 ECMWF Jet Stream and MSLP<\/p>\n

The global ECMWF deterministic forecast is predicting the system to get caught up in the left exit of the Jet Stream allowing it to deepen rapidly. However, it is predicting it to be on the very boundary of the Jet so a slight deviation in the positioning would result in a very different outcome.<\/p>\n

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Figure 3 DINI-EPS Individual members showing 1 hour rainfall<\/p>\n

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Figure 4 DINI-EPS 12 hour accumulations for Friday<\/p>\n

Met \u00c9ireann\u2019s own ensemble forecasting system (DINI-EPS) shows a range of possible outcomes of the rainfall associated with this system. While areas may not reach warning thresholds, flooding remains a likelihood. A status yellow rainfall warning has been issued due to the potential for further heavy rain and showers in areas that have already seen significant flooding due to Storm Chandra.<\/p>\n

At the moment, rainfall warnings are in effect for today (Thursday) and tomorrow (Friday) for southeastern, northeastern and eastern areas. Many rivers in the southeast, east, and northeast are at or above bank-full levels, and river levels are generally high in other areas. Soils are saturated and waterlogged in many areas, with little improvement in soil conditions forecast in the coming days. Any additional rainfall, particularly in southeastern, northeastern, and eastern areas, could cause further river flooding. Fast-responding and upland catchments are most at risk.<\/p>\n

Given the uncertainties for Friday, there is a range of possible rainfall accumulations but ensemble forecasts are a way to give overall guidance by looking at the mean or average amounts of predicted rainfall. It is important to note that due to the figures above being an average of ensemble members, there is the potential for higher or lower rainfall amounts.<\/p>\n

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Figure 5 ECMWF Ensemble Mean Rainfall from Thursday to Monday inclusive<\/p>\n

There is a strong signal though for southeastern and eastern areas, which have seen the largest accumulations in recent days, to experience the majority of the rainfall out to Monday inclusive.<\/p>\n

While the forecast is for some drier spells to develop during the weekend, there are rivers and catchments that are slower to respond to rainfall so there can be delayed impacts.<\/p>\n

Monitor Met \u00c9ireann forecasts\u00a0\u2013 conditions may change quickly. Visit\u00a0https:\/\/www.met.ie\/<\/a> for the most up to date information. Information is also available across the Met \u00c9ireann App, social media platforms (@meteireann) and bulletins.
\nCheck local authority\u00a0websites and social media channels for information on road closures, flooding updates, and community alerts.
\nAllow for disruption\u00a0when travelling. Plan extra travel time\u00a0and reduce speed.
\nExpect surface water, debris and poor visibility.
\nDo not bypass Road Closed signs \u2013 the road ahead is unsafe, the damage may be hidden beneath water, and you may be putting your life at risk.
\nDo not drive through floodwater\u00a0\u2013 turn back and use another route.
\nCheck with Transport Operators when planning journeys
\nStay back from riverbanks, streams and canals\u00a0\u2013 water levels may rise quickly.
\nKeep children and pets away from waterways\u00a0and flooded areas.
\nKeep away from coastal edges, harbours, piers and low-lying promenades\u00a0during high tide.
\nThe Irish Coast Guard advice remains: \u201cStay Back, Stay High, Stay Dry.\u201d
\nCheck in with neighbours, older people or anyone who may need assistance\u00a0in case conditions worsen.
\nUp to date information on the response to Storm Chandra is available at gov.ie\/stormresponse<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Issued Thursday 29th January 2026 Given recent rainfall, river levels and antecedent conditions, further flooding is possible in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":137934,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":{"0":"post-270880","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-headlines","8":"tag-headlines","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-top-news","11":"tag-top-stories","12":"tag-topnews","13":"tag-topstories"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270880","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=270880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270880\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/137934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=270880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=270880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=270880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}