{"id":272864,"date":"2026-01-31T00:44:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T00:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/272864\/"},"modified":"2026-01-31T00:44:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T00:44:08","slug":"melania-pacing-for-8-million-opening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/272864\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Melania’ Pacing for $8 Million Opening"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tFollowing last night\u2019s in Washington D.C. attended by President Donald Trump and packed with his acolytes, the First Lady\u2019s documentary Melania<\/a> is on course to open to a better-than-expected $8 million or more at the North American box office<\/a>, according to early Friday returns. That would mark the best opening in a decade or more for doc, no small feat in a post-COVID world where streamers have taken over the non-fiction space.<\/p>\n

\n\tHowever, all bets are off when it comes to comparisons given the context around Melania, directed by the controversial filmmaker Brett Ratner in what he hopes marks his Hollywood comeback. For one, Amazon MGM Studios plunked down $40 million for worldwide licensing rights in a deal widely seen as a move to cozy up to the White House. Whatever the case, it makes Melania the most expensive doc in history. <\/p>\n

\n\tAnd that\u2019s before Amazon spent $35 million on the global marketing campaign for Melania, including $15 million in the U.S. A domestic theatrical campaign for even the biggest docs generally runs no more than $5 million to $7 million. There are exceptions, including former vice president Al Gore\u2019s An Inconvenient Truth and Michael Moore\u2019s Fahrenheit 9\/11. Sources say the domestic marketing spend was close to $15 million on each of those tiles because of the awards factor, not adjusted for inflation. Both picked up the Oscar for best picture. <\/p>\n

\n\tHeading into the weekend, Melania was tracking to open to in the $5 million range from 1,778 theaters, or enough to beat the $5 million debut of Angel Studios\u2019 doc\u00a0After Death from 2,645 theaters in 2023, according to Comscore.<\/p>\n

\n\tAlmost two decades later, Michael Moore\u2019s Oscar-winning Fahrenheit 9\/11 remains the top-grossing doc of all time among any genre, and not just political. It opened in 2024 to a record $23.9 million domestically from 868 theaters on its way to North American cume of $119.2 million and $222 million globally, not adjusted for inflation. <\/p>\n

\n\tThe decision to open Melania in more 20 markets overseas, where Prime has a huge footprint, was a bold move, considering how controversial of a figure her husband is. He\u2019s presently in a tussle with South Africa, where a istributor pulled <\/a>Melania<\/a> from release earlier this week. And there\u2019s been a torrent of bad press coming out of Europe regarding empty theaters (just as in the U.S.). Of the total marketing pie, about $10 million is being spent internationally; in the U.K. alone, an outdoor digital installation at a landmark can cost $2 million (in the U.S., the campaign kicked off with an installation at the Sphere in Las Vegas).<\/p>\n

\n\tFrom Amazon\u2019s point of view, it\u2019s making good on it promise to become a major theatrical player and help struggling cinemas with a varied slate of product, alongside servicing its streaming customers. Since it is a doc, Melania may only play exclusively in cinemas for two weekends (or at least 10 days), meaning a potential streaming launch timed to the Valentine\u2019s Day\/Presidents Day weekend. While Amazon is more inoculated from churn that rival streaming services, it still has to attract new subs, along with feeding its conservative-leaning Prime members. And it will get two marketing campaigns for the price of one by going relatively quickly to the home, a popular tactic across all of Hollywood.<\/p>\n

\n\tIf the initial $8 million holds, exhibitors aren\u2019t so bullish, based on sluggish ticket sales. Some think it could do far less. Social media is rife with theater maps showing auditoriums where only a smattering of tickets have been sold (it\u2019s hard to remember a doc that\u2019s been so scrutinized in terms of its opening number). B<\/p>\n

\n\tMelania, meanwhile, clearly appears to benefiting by promotion from the bully pulpit, as President Trump entreats his followers to see the film, while grassroots marketing campaigns from conservative groups are expected to send moviegoers to theaters in red-leaning states. In in ultra-conservative hubs, such as El Plano, Texas, many shows are\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tIt won\u2019t be helped by movie critics, however, as early reviews from major media outlets have been scathing<\/a>. (Many box office pundits say Trump supporters will expect negative reviews from what they consider to the left-leaning media.)<\/p>\n

\n\tMelania is opening opposite a slew of films, including 20th Century\u2019s Rachel McAdams thriller Send Help, the Sam Raimi-directed title that now looks to open $16 million or $18 million domestically, likewise ahead of expectations after earning a glowing 93 percent critics score on Rotten Tomatoes.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe darkly comic horror-thriller stars\u00a0McAdams\u00a0and Dylan O\u2019Brien as coworkers stranded on a desert island, and sports a glowing 93 percent critics\u2019 score on Rotten Tomatoes.\u00a0According to\u00a0THR\u2018s review<\/a>, the R-rated pic \u201cboasts an audacious concept that is superbly realized by Raimi\u2019s filmmaking, which milks every bizarre situation for all it\u2019s worth.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tIn a second surprise twist, indie movie Iron Lung from Mark Fischbach of YouTube gaming fame is also tipped to open in that range, s<\/p>\n

\n\tnlike\u00a0Melania, the Sam Raimi-directed\u00a0Send Help\u00a0is expected to overperform (some cinema owners are predicting as much as $16 million or $17 million). <\/p>\n

\n\tMore to come.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Following last night\u2019s in Washington D.C. attended by President Donald Trump and packed with his acolytes, the First…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":272865,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[2478,93,61,60,94761,270],"class_list":{"0":"post-272864","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-movies","8":"tag-box-office","9":"tag-entertainment","10":"tag-ie","11":"tag-ireland","12":"tag-melania","13":"tag-movies"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=272864"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272864\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/272865"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=272864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=272864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=272864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}