![\"Cup](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Cup20of20coffe20with20beans20on20the20side20by20Carol20La20Rosa20via20Shutterstock.jpg\")
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\n Cup of coffe with beans on the side by Carol La Rosa via Shutterstock\n <\/p>\n
March arabica coffee (KCH26<\/a>) on Monday closed up +1.00 (+0.30%), and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26<\/a>) closed down -84 (-2.04%).<\/p>\n Coffee prices settled mixed on Monday, with robusta falling to a 4-week low. \u00a0Above-average rainfall in Brazil is positive for coffee yields but negative for prices. \u00a0Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 69.8 mm of rain during the week ended January 30, or 117% of the historical average.<\/p>\n Some mild technical short covering lifted arabica coffee into positive territory on Monday after prices failed take out last Friday’s 5.5-month nearest-futures low. \u00a0Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past week amid forecasts of steady rains in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main coffee-growing region.<\/p>\n The outlook for ample coffee supplies is a bearish factor for prices. \u00a0On December 4, Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, raised its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, from a September estimate of 55.20 million bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. \u00a0Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported on January 5 that Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y\/y to 1.58 MMT. \u00a0<\/p>\n Increased Vietnamese coffee supplies are negative for prices. \u00a0Vietnam’s 2025\/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y\/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags, a 4-year high. \u00a0Also, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said on October 24 that Vietnam’s coffee output in 2025\/26 will be 10% higher than the previous crop year if weather conditions remain favorable. \u00a0 Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.<\/p>\n The recovery in ICE coffee inventories is negative for prices. \u00a0ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, but recovered to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags on January 7. \u00a0Also, ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 13-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10 but recovered to a 2-month high of 4,662 lots last Monday.<\/p>\n Shrinking Brazilian coffee exports are supportive of coffee prices. \u00a0Cecafe reported last Monday that Brazil’s total Dec green coffee exports fell -18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with arabica coffee exports down -10% y\/y to 2.6 million bags and robusta coffee exports down -61% y\/y to 222,147 bags.<\/p>\n Below-average rainfall in Brazil, the world’s largest arabica producer, is supportive for coffee prices. \u00a0<\/p>\n Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are supportive of prices, as the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on November 7 reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y\/y to 138.658 million bags.<\/p>\n The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025\/26 will increase by +2.0% y\/y to a record 178.848 million bags, with a -4.7% decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a +10.9% increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. \u00a0FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025\/26 coffee production will decline by -3.1% y\/y to 63 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025\/26 coffee output will rise by 6.2% y\/y to a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags. \u00a0FAS forecasts that 2025\/26 ending stocks will fall by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024\/25. \n On the date of publication,<\/p>\n
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