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Niamh Tobin,EY Ireland Financial Services CFO Advisory Partner<\/p>\n
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Last month, more than 6,000 people descended on Ireland for Dublin Aviation Week. It\u2019s a gathering where deals are hammered out, and the pulse of the industry is taken in conference halls and overflowing meeting rooms.<\/p>\n
The bustling event marked a major shift from just a few years ago, when the industry faced a once-in-a-lifetime threat in the pandemic.<\/p>\n
\u201cPost-Covid there was probably a slow down in the aviation market, everyone was a bit apprehensive but last year there was more positivity and this year even more so,\u201d according to EY aviation finance sector leader Niamh Tobin.<\/p>\n
Dealmaking among lessors and renewed investor interest have been a shot in the arm for the sector, even in the face of geopolitical challenges like tariffs and the ongoing supply constraints on new aircraft.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a lot of new capital in the industry, a lot of private equity firms who aren\u2019t currently in aviation but are keen to get into it, this includes private credit,\u201d Tobin told The Currency. \u201cThere\u2019s a huge amount of consolidation continuing to happen and portfolio sales so there\u2019s a heavy pipeline of deals and the demand continues to outweigh supply.\u201d<\/p>\n
You need not look too far for signs of this bumper dealmaking. SMBC Aviation Capital is closing in on its $7 billion acquisition of Air Lease Corporation, which will create a major new player in the aviation leasing industry.<\/p>\n
Tobin has been with EY for over 14 years and has witnessed the industry\u2019s ups and downs in that time. Aviation, and particularly leasing, have been significant industries in Ireland for decades with most of the world\u2019s top aircraft lessors headquartered in Dublin.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ve been in the industry over 14 years now, I started in audit. Back then, in EY we had one key aircraft leasing audit client, fast forward to now where we have almost 40 per cent of the audit market share when you look at the top 50 lessors,\u201d she said of the firms growth in the sector in recent years.<\/p>\n
\u201cAudit has been a really successful business for us, growing out the business, having that good reputation, getting to know the industry, all of the contacts, and then our tax client base was built out along with the other services.\u201d<\/p>\n
That service offering from EY has expanded to keep up with the rapid pace of the industry, Tobin added, in areas like Asset-Backed Securitisation (ABS) and servicing clients in contract lease management and aircraft Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO).<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve actually taken a significant market share and really went beyond what we initially thought was possible,\u201d she said of aircraft ABS services. \u201cOn the back office contract lease management , we\u2019re the only big four firm offering this service.\u201d<\/p>\n
The flow of new money to the sector, from sources that typically would not have invested in aviation, has been a major factor in the industry\u2019s post-Covid resurgence.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe spend a lot of our time here in EY with US colleagues and clients on the private equity, private credit side who are keen to explore aviation, but don\u2019t necessarily have the necessary depth of knowledge or expertise. This is where we come in, helping to educate them on the entire supply chain and the opportunities available across the sector,\u201d Tobin explained.<\/p>\n
Covid was one of the biggest shocks to ever hit the aviation industry, grounding planes and effectively shutting down the global travel market. It could have been the death knell for many in the industry but weathering the storm has shown how resilient its players can be.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s probably given investors confidence because they\u2019ve seen the worst that could happen in an industry and it didn\u2019t fail.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another massive deal \u2013 AerCap\u2019s \u20ac25 billion takeover of GECAS \u2013 took place during Covid, sending a strong signal to investors that the industry could endure.<\/p>\n
Now with the SMBC-Air Lease deal nearing closure, attention will move to the next massive deal. Macquarie is lining up the sale of its aircraft leasing business Macquarie AirFinance.<\/p>\n
Another recurring theme coming out of Dublin Aviation Week was supply and demand with Boeing and Airbus experiencing large backlogs of orders for aircraft from airlines and lessors. It\u2019s a strain that puts pressure on timelines and forecasts.<\/p>\n
However, Tobin explained, the merging of a handful of lessors into much bigger companies will give these larger lessors more sway in securing aircraft.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis tends to make Tier 1 blue-chip lessors more competitive due to scale and deal execution.\u201d<\/p>\n
Consolidation and an over-concentration of lessors is not a major concern in the industry, Tobin added. Industry watchers meanwhile are keeping a close eye on deals beyond the aircraft leasing sector.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the maintenance, repair and overhaul piece, again you\u2019re seeing a lot of consolidation there because the current MRO shops can\u2019t keep up, they don\u2019t have enough space, they don\u2019t have the hangars, they don\u2019t have the people to actually service the demand so they\u2019re starting to buy some of the smaller ones who wouldn\u2019t necessarily have the contracts or the full utilisation,\u201d Tobin said.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the consolidation piece, they need help with making sure their processes are all aligned, that every shop \u2013 because they didn\u2019t all originate from their current owner \u2013 are reading off the same hymn sheet, maybe they\u2019re not using the same systems, that type of stuff.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tobin said the industry is seeing a lot of that type of activity in the Middle East and the US.<\/p>\n
The flow of deals and money paints a positive picture for the industry but it still faces several headwinds, whether it\u2019s geopolitics, tariffs and conflicts.<\/p>\n
\u201cTariffs were and are a big thing and it\u2019s very complicated, as manufacturers might be buying or manufacturing parts in different areas or jurisdictions right around the world,\u201d Tobin said.<\/p>\n
Niamh Tobin,
EY Ireland Financial Services CFO Advisory Partner<\/p>\n
The industry has found a way to plough through the noise of on-and-off tariffs, she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou\u2019re always keeping your finger on the pulse. I think for the industry as a whole it\u2019s really positive that global travel demands are back, that the interest rates have stabilised. Tariffs and geopolitical shifts are always going to be a risk but ultimately it\u2019s about working through it,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Ireland remains a centre of excellence for aviation, she said, but that is a position that needs to be constantly maintained to keep up with, and overcome, global challenges.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur tax policy has always been very transparent, even with the new 15 per cent minimum corporate tax rate for large multinationals. It\u2019s about making sure that we\u2019re staying ahead of the others and that transparency is key\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe industry has been here over 50 years now and it\u2019s here to stay because we have a great workforce, our universities are making sure the skilled labour is there.\u201d<\/p>\n
These investment in human capital and resources are key to ensuring Ireland stays ahead of the curve and can shield itself from global ructions.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf there was a big tax policy change in the morning that made another jurisdiction more attractive, I\u2019m sure that\u2019s a big risk.\u201d<\/p>\n
The industry is also constantly adapting and responding to changes in wider policy and geopolitical changes globally. In addition to the impact of tariffs, the change in sentiment surrounding ESG was another topic on the minds of delegates at Dublin Aviation Week.<\/p>\n
In Europe, changes to with EU level measures, most notably the postponement of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive will affect several industries, including aviation as the majority won\u2019t be required to report.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe industry does have responsibility to make sure it\u2019s doing what it can for the environment,\u201d she said. \u201cA lot of the big lessors already voluntarily report and they will have their ESG reports out there saying what they\u2019re doing from an environmental, social and a governance perspective.\u201d<\/p>\n
Industry interest in sustainable fuels, like SAF, continues to grow too but companies are cognisant of the technical challenge in widespread use.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re a considerable way away from any significant reliance on SAF because the reality at present it just can\u2019t be produced quickly enough and at sufficient scale.\u201d<\/p>\n
Aviation has traditionally been a male dominated industry \u2013 something that could be seen by the make-up of delegates at Dublin Aviation Week \u2013 but there is a fast-growing proportion of women in the sector and Tobin points to industry programmes like PropelHer that aim to attract more women into the sector.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs a female, being the aviation finance sector lead for EY, I think that it\u2019s really important that you\u2019re starting to see, outside of professional services, a lot more female CEOs and CFOs in aircraft or engine lessors as well as on the boards,\u201d Tobin said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s making sure women feel confident because it is still a male-dominated industry but it\u2019s about encouraging women to look around see that you do have female advocates, you have role models now that you can look up to. Even in my team I would say probably 70 per cent are females.\u201d<\/p>\n
The broader array of professionals entering the space are driven by the vigour of the work, she added.<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of the newer generation are excited about it. When I started I didn\u2019t know anything about aviation finance but I think it\u2019s just grown so much as an industry over the last 15 years that a lot more people are interested in it, they can see it\u2019s a very competitive high-energy industry and everybody wants to do really well,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou\u2019re seeing so many new players, different structures, a lot of transactions, it\u2019s very fast-paced. There\u2019s always something new.\u201d<\/p>\n
This article is partner content and has been produced in association with EY.<\/p>\n
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