<\/p>\n
At\u00a0the start of\u00a0the year, Russians got a\u00a0shock at\u00a0the grocery store: cucumber prices had skyrocketed. Still, officials and economists aren\u2019t sounding the alarm; prices are expected to\u00a0begin falling by\u00a0spring. Inflation more broadly accelerated early in\u00a0the year, though it\u2019s already showing some signs of\u00a0slowing. But bringing prices under control could mean sacrificing economic growth \u2014 and that, in\u00a0turn, could deepen Russia\u2019s budget deficit.<\/p>\n
Sticker shock<\/p>\n
In\u00a0the first weeks of\u00a02026, cucumber prices in\u00a0Russia spiked so\u00a0dramatically that they took on\u00a0a\u00a0life of\u00a0their\u00a0own. Social media flooded with complaints and photos of\u00a0produce aisles showing price tags of\u00a0500 \u2014 and even 1,000<\/a> \u2014 rubles per kilogram ($2.93, or\u00a0even $5.87 per pound). As\u00a0Forbes Russia noted<\/a>, by\u00a0early February, cucumbers had effectively become as\u00a0expensive as\u00a0meat.<\/p>\n Even official data confirmed the spike. According to\u00a0Russia\u2019s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), prices rose 43 percent between late December and February 2, then climbed another 5.2 percent in\u00a0the following week. Industry analysts say the actual increase is\u00a0even higher.<\/p>\n The trade association Rusprodsoyuz estimates<\/a> that over the past three months, cucumber prices have jumped 111 percent, with the average retail price reaching around 300 rubles per kilogram (about $1.76 per pound) by\u00a0February. Alexey Plugov, head of\u00a0agricultural research company AB-Center, told Forbes Russia that between December 22 and February 2, the price per kilogram rose from about 224 rubles to\u00a0317 rubles (from $1.32 per pound to\u00a0$1.86 per pound).<\/p>\n And yet, viewed year over year, the picture looks far less dramatic. Compared with February 2025, vegetable prices are up\u00a0just 1.8 percent. As\u00a0Rusprodsoyuz Deputy Chairman Dmitry Leonov pointed out to\u00a0Forbes Russia, last year prices rose 120 percent over the same three-month stretch.<\/p>\n As food prices surge, Russians stop buying fruit, ignore expiration dates, and brace for more hikes <\/a>As food prices surge, Russians stop buying fruit, ignore expiration dates, and brace for more hikes <\/a><\/p>\n Cucumbers in\u00a0Russia always get more expensive in\u00a0winter \u2014 and there are clear reasons for this.<\/p>\n First, seasonality. By\u00a0the early 2020s, Russia had effectively become<\/a> self-sufficient in\u00a0growing cucumbers; today, about<\/a> 95 percent of\u00a0the market is\u00a0supplied domestically. Thanks to\u00a0widespread greenhouse technology, farmers now grow<\/a> cucumbers year-round across the country \u2014 not only in\u00a0the warmer southern regions but also in\u00a0the colder central part of\u00a0European Russia. In\u00a02025, they harvested nearly 900,000 tons.<\/p>\n But winter production is\u00a0costly. From November through March, greenhouses rely on\u00a0intensive artificial lighting to\u00a0compensate for short daylight hours, stimulating photosynthesis and speeding growth. Cucumbers, in\u00a0particular, need<\/a> bright, powerful light for up\u00a0to\u00a018 hours a\u00a0day. Electricity can account<\/a> for as\u00a0much as\u00a0half the cost of\u00a0winter vegetables, and rates for producers have risen 23 percent over the past two years.<\/p>\n Then there\u2019s the cold itself. January 2026 ranked<\/a> among the three coldest in\u00a0central Russia in\u00a0the past 30 years \u2014 the very region where much of\u00a0the country\u2019s greenhouse capacity is\u00a0concentrated. Heating costs rose accordingly. Freezing weather also makes cucumbers harder to\u00a0store: at\u00a0wholesale warehouses and smaller distribution points, they spoil faster than usual \u2014 driving up\u00a0logistics costs throughout the supply chain.<\/p>\n Taken together, these factors make February a\u00a0predictably difficult month for the cucumber market. Output falls. Harvesting and distribution become more expensive. And unlike during the 2025 potato price crisis \u2014 when authorities turned<\/a> to\u00a0imports \u2014 there are currently no\u00a0foreign suppliers filling gaps in\u00a0supply. Meanwhile, the cost of\u00a0imported seeds, fertilizers, and equipment continues to\u00a0climb. According to\u00a0Plugov, production in\u00a0February is\u00a0roughly 35 percent lower than in\u00a0January.<\/p>\n Potato prices in Russia have nearly tripled Here\u2019s what\u2019s driving the spud crisis \u2014 and whether relief is on the way<\/a><\/p>\n However, there may be\u00a0some relief on\u00a0the horizon for Russian cucumber lovers: prices are likely to\u00a0fall soon. As\u00a0daylight hours lengthen, temperatures rise, and open-field harvests begin, supply should increase. Officials<\/a> and analysts<\/a> alike expect prices to\u00a0ease in\u00a0the spring. Output in\u00a0March is\u00a0projected to\u00a0be\u00a0about one and a\u00a0half times February\u2019s level, and in\u00a0April two to\u00a0two and a\u00a0half times higher \u2014 potentially<\/a> pushing prices down to\u00a090\u2013100 rubles per kilogram ($0.53 to\u00a0$0.59 per pound) by\u00a0mid-spring.<\/p>\n The bigger inflation problem<\/p>\n In\u00a0an\u00a0interview with the business news outlet RBC, Russian Central Bank Deputy Director Alexey Zabotkin noted<\/a> that the surge in\u00a0cucumber prices reflects the pronounced seasonality of\u00a0a\u00a0single product, not \u201csustained inflationary processes\u201d in\u00a0the wider economy.<\/p>\n Keeping inflation in\u00a0check is\u00a0one of\u00a0the Russian government\u2019s main economic priorities in\u00a02026. The Central Bank has been cautious in\u00a0lowering its from elevated levels. High rates curb business lending and make bank deposits more attractive for households, cooling consumer demand.<\/p>\n Even so, inflation accelerated at\u00a0the start of\u00a0the year, driven not only by\u00a0seasonal increases in\u00a0fruit and vegetable prices but also by\u00a0the rise in\u00a0value-added tax from 20 percent to\u00a022 percent, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said<\/a>.<\/p>\n Russians pick up\u00a0the tab The Kremlin\u2019s new tax hike aims to\u00a0plug a\u00a0record deficit and fund the war \u2014 but it\u00a0may not be\u00a0enough<\/a>Russians pick up\u00a0the tab The Kremlin\u2019s new tax hike aims to\u00a0plug a\u00a0record deficit and fund the war \u2014 but it\u00a0may not be\u00a0enough<\/a><\/p>\n Weekly data from Rosstat show that annual inflation in\u00a0Russia peaked at\u00a06.46 percent on\u00a0February 2 before easing slightly to\u00a06.36 percent by\u00a0February 9. In\u00a0late December, it\u00a0stood at\u00a05.59 percent, meaning inflation has yet to\u00a0return even to\u00a0last year\u2019s level. At\u00a0the same time, the Central Bank\u2019s latest forecast for 2026 puts inflation at\u00a04\u20135 percent.<\/p>\n Still, some economists say recent data point to\u00a0a\u00a0slowdown in\u00a0inflation. Sofia Donets, chief economist at\u00a0Tinkoff Investments, noted<\/a> that \u201cweekly inflation is\u00a0better not only than in\u00a0previous weeks but also than during the same period of\u00a0the past three years.\u201d The January bump from higher taxes and regulated tariffs, she said, has largely played\u00a0out. What remains is\u00a0consumer demand \u2014 which, for now, is\u00a0subdued.<\/p>\n Reshetnikov maintains that inflation will continue to\u00a0slow and move toward the 4\u20135 percent target range, giving the Central Bank \u201croom\u201d to\u00a0cut rates further. Indeed, on\u00a0February 13, the Central Bank cut<\/a> the key rate from 16 percent to\u00a015.5 percent. The problem, he\u00a0acknowledged, is\u00a0that the \u201cnatural price\u201d of\u00a0curbing inflation is\u00a0stalled economic growth. Russia\u2019s GDP may not increase at\u00a0all in\u00a02026, he\u00a0said, with growth resuming only in\u00a02027.<\/p>\n That outlook is\u00a0troubling for a\u00a0federal budget already suffering from revenue shortfalls. In\u00a0January, the deficit reached 1.7 trillion rubles ($22 billion). Oil and gas revenues \u2014 depressed by\u00a0lower global prices \u2014 fell to\u00a0multi-year lows, totaling just 393 billion rubles ($5 billion). The shortfall could be<\/a> offset by\u00a0stronger-than-expected revenue from other sources. But those revenues depend on\u00a0the broader health of\u00a0the economy.<\/p>\n Whether the Russian authorities can balance the fight against inflation with the need to\u00a0shore up\u00a0the budget is\u00a0difficult to\u00a0predict. It\u00a0is\u00a0becoming increasingly harder to\u00a0dismiss warnings<\/a> that by\u00a0summer, Russia\u2019s economy, strained by\u00a0war and sanctions, could face a\u00a0crisis.<\/p>\n Stalling growth, falling oil prices, and the civilian sector sacrificed Meduza\u2019s top five takeaways on\u00a0the Russian economy heading into 2026<\/a>Stalling growth, falling oil prices, and the civilian sector sacrificed Meduza\u2019s top five takeaways on\u00a0the Russian economy heading into 2026<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"At\u00a0the start of\u00a0the year, Russians got a\u00a0shock at\u00a0the grocery store: cucumber prices had skyrocketed. 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