{"id":306131,"date":"2026-02-19T12:54:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T12:54:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/306131\/"},"modified":"2026-02-19T12:54:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T12:54:07","slug":"tight-labour-market-and-may-hike-risk-td-securities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/306131\/","title":{"rendered":"Tight labour market and May hike risk \u2013 TD Securities"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD Securities\u2019 Global Strategy Team argues the Reserve Bank of Australia will view January\u2019s labour data as confirmation of a still-tight market. Full-time jobs rose strongly and unemployment stayed below the RBA\u2019s latest forecast. The bank expects the next RBA rate hike in May, a view that should support a flatter Australian curve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/rates-charts\/forecast\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">outlook<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Strong jobs keep tightening bias alive<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The RBA will look at the Jan job report as confirmation that the labour market remains tight.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;While the headline came in at +17.8k, below consensus at +20k, full time jobs rose a healthy +50.5k and the unemployment remained at 4.1%, vs consensus at 4.2%.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;To be precise, the unemployment rate was 4.075% vs Dec at 4.092% and Nov at 4.303% and the Jan u\/e outcome is tracking below the RBA&#8217;s Feb SoMP forecast.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Along with the mild upward revisions to the Dec data across headline, full time and part time, the question really is when does the RBA hike next?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We think May and this should bias the curve flatter.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TD Securities\u2019 Global Strategy Team argues the Reserve Bank of Australia will view January\u2019s labour data as confirmation&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":276878,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[72,113,61,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-306131","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-ie","11":"tag-ireland"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=306131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306131\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/276878"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=306131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=306131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=306131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}