Rabobank\u2019s Michael Every highlights that robust Australian wages and employment data are increasing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia. He notes solid private and public wage growth, strong full-time job gains and low unemployment, and questions how long the RBA can avoid a more hawkish stance without clashing with the housing market, amid public criticism of government fiscal policy.<\/p>\n
Strong jobs data versus housing risks<\/p>\n
“Strong wages growth and jobs data keep the pressure on the Reserve Bank.”<\/p>\n
“Private sector wages were +3.4% y-o-y in Q4 and public sector +4%. Jobs growth in January was 17.8K, broadly in line with expectations, but with a surge in full-time employment of over 50K, while unemployment fell a tick to a near-historic low of 4.1%.”<\/p>\n
“Yes, there are questions about data quality, population growth, and AI, even if Australia is hardly at the cutting edge in that key area.”<\/p>\n
“But what excuses can the RBA keep finding not to be hawkish, even if that eventually sets up a collision with the housing market?”<\/p>\n