Eurozone, UK and US September PMIs<\/p>\n
Tuesday 23 September If EUR\/USD<\/a> can break through $1.19, it has a relatively clear path higher, with little resistance until around $1.226. However, if the attempted breakout fails and the pair cannot move above $1.19, the euro might weaken against the dollar, potentially slipping back towards support at $1.16.<\/p>\n EUR\/USD<\/a>, May 2021 – present<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Tuesday 23 September Implied volatility is likely to be well over 100% for at-the-money options expiring on 26 September. Positioning appears to be very bullish and, given Micron stock\u2019s strong run since late August (it\u2019s up about 40% in three weeks), the shares unsurprisingly find themselves overbought heading into Tuesday\u2019s results, with the relative strength index (RSI) above 86 and the share price trading at its upper Bollinger Band.<\/p>\n Further upside is possible, but with volatility levels so high and the stock technically overbought, it is also possible that once the results are released and implied volatility falls, call option premiums could decay quickly, sending the shares<\/a> lower. In fact, a decline back to the 20-day moving average at $133 does not seem implausible. Ultimately, the post-results price action may depend on whether the company surprises investors in a manner similar to Broadcom<\/a> or Oracle<\/a> \u2013 no easy feat.<\/p>\n Micron Technology share price, April 2024 – present<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n US August PCE price index<\/p>\n Friday 26 September After the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 4% to 4.25% on 17 September, hot PCE data \u2013 or even data in line with estimates \u2013 could be a cause for concern among long-duration bondholders and those betting against the US dollar. A global rush into short positions on the dollar could be unwound if PCE surprises to the upside, as it would point to higher Treasury rates and a stronger dollar.<\/p>\n
\nGenerally speaking, PMI readings have improved across the US, the UK and Europe since the northern hemisphere\u2019s spring, supporting the view that the challenges seen at the start of the year have eased. That trend seems likely to continue. Barring any major surprises, the PMI data\u2019s impact on currency markets<\/a> may be muted. While the euro has shown signs of breaking out against the US dollar, it could come under pressure if it fails to clear resistance near $1.19.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/eurusd_19_09_25.webp.jpeg\")
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer<\/p>\n
\nThe Nasdaq<\/a>-listed memory chip manufacturer is set to report that revenue grew 44.8% to $11.2bn in the fiscal fourth quarter, according to analyst estimates. Earnings are expected to have more than doubled to $2.86 a share, up from $1.18 a year ago. Meanwhile, the company\u2019s gross margin is expected to have expanded to 43.4%, up from 36.5% a year earlier. As ever, guidance will be key, with analysts looking for revenue to increase 36.9% to $11.9bn in Q1 as margins edge up to 45.2%, resulting in earnings of $3.03 a share. The Micron share price, up more than 90% this year at about $169, could rise or fall around 9.2% following the Q4 results, based on options market positioning.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/mu_19_09_25.webp.jpeg\")
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer<\/p>\n
\nThe Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred measure of inflation is expected to indicate that price growth is accelerating. The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to have risen 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year in August, faster than July\u2019s increases of 0.2% m-o-m and 2.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, the closely watched core PCE price index \u2013 which excludes volatile food and energy prices to paint a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends \u2013 is expected to have held at 0.3% on a monthly basis in August, while accelerating to 3% on an annual basis, up from 2.9% in July.<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/usdjpy_19_09_25.webp.jpeg\")
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer<\/p>\n