Ireland faces a looming “pensions timebomb”, with the ratio of workers to over-65s set to more than halve by 2065 without policy reform, the Oireachtas housing committee will be warned on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
\n Officials from the Department of Finance will tell the committee that the current demographics of four working people to every one pensioner will drop to less than 2:1 over the next 40 years from a perfect storm of falling birthrates, ageing population, and\u00a0greater longevity.<\/p>\n
\n The findings, contained in two reports by the department entitled Future Forty, suggest that demand for housing will increase from 50,000 units per year to 60,000 by 2030, \u201can assumption based on government policy\u201d.<\/p>\n
\n Kevin Daly, a principal officer in the department\u2019s strategic economic development unit, is expected to tell the committee that the population of the country under Future Forty\u2019s central modelling scenario will be 6.8m by 2065, up from 5.4m currently, with a far greater proportion of people above retirement age than is currently the case.<\/p>\n
\n That in itself will \u201creshape Ireland\u2019s labour force and increase demand for age-related services\u201d, Mr Daly will say, noting that a higher fertility rate or greater levels of migration \u201cwould ease pressures but only marginally\u201d.<\/p>\n
\n If housing supply \u201crises as required\u201d and population growth moderates, then the \u201cimbalance\u201d of housing supply and demand will \u201cnarrow in time\u201d.<\/p>\n
\n He will explain that Future Forty represents predictions based on a situation where policies do not change and it is not a prediction, but rather a \u201ctool … to prepare for the future\u201d.<\/p>\n
\n Key to the issue of demographic change is Ireland\u2019s declining fertility rate, which has fallen from nearly three children per woman 60 years ago to 1.6 in 2022. A fertility rate of 2.1 is considered necessary to keep a population stable. <\/p>\n
\n The drop in fertility rates is not unique to Ireland, but is mirrored in developed nations worldwide. A reversal in the trend is considered absolutely unlikely, meaning other methods \u2014 chiefly migration<\/a> \u2014 will be needed to redress the imbalance in age profiles around the globe, the committee will hear.<\/p>\n