{"id":314855,"date":"2026-02-24T14:56:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T14:56:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/314855\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T14:56:08","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T14:56:08","slug":"new-tool-provides-first-space-weather-warnings-months-in-advance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/314855\/","title":{"rendered":"New tool provides first space weather warnings months in advance"},"content":{"rendered":"

Researchers have developed a new tool that provides a first step toward forecasting space weather weeks in advance instead of just hours.<\/p>\n

Developed by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), a system for advance space weather warnings could allow agencies and industries to mitigate impacts to GPS, power grids, astronaut safety and more.<\/p>\n

The tool, known as PINNBARDS, is advancing a new generation of physics-informed, AI-enabled forecasting tools<\/a> to better understand and anticipate extreme space weather.<\/p>\n

The growing threats of space weather<\/p>\n

Space weather \u2013 driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) \u2013 poses significant risks to our modern, technology-dependent way of life<\/a>.<\/p>\n

When the Sun erupts, it releases a torrent of charged particles and radiation. If these reach Earth, they can trigger geomagnetic storms that interfere with our infrastructure in three main ways:<\/p>\n

Power grid failure: Rapidly changing magnetic fields can induce extra currents in long-distance power lines, potentially blowing out transformers and causing widespread, long-term blackouts.
\nSatellite disruption: High-energy particles can fry sensitive electronics on satellites, disrupting everything from GPS navigation to global telecommunications and weather forecasting.
\nRadiation hazards: Outside the protection of Earth\u2019s atmosphere, astronauts face lethal doses of radiation. Even passengers on high-altitude polar flights can be exposed to increased radiation levels during severe solar events.<\/p>\n

Early space weather warnings are crucial for safeguarding infrastructure<\/p>\n

PINNBARDS bridges surface observations of solar active regions and deep solar magnetic dynamics to accurately deliver space weather warnings in advance.<\/p>\n

It offers the potential for substantially longer forecast lead times<\/a>, which is critical for safeguarding satellites, communications infrastructure and future human space exploration.<\/p>\n

Mausumi Dikpati, NSF NCAR senior scientist, who led the research, stated: \u201cThe reconstructed subsurface states from PINNBARDS provide initial conditions for forward simulations of solar magnetic evolution, opening the door to predicting where and when large, flare-producing active regions are likely to emerge weeks in advance.\u201d<\/p>\n

Supercomputer simulations test accuracy of the tool<\/p>\n

The simulations for the research \u2013 including code development, testing, and production runs \u2013 utilised the Derecho supercomputer at the NSF NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputer Center.<\/p>\n

Predicting the Sun\u2019s next flare<\/p>\n

The research was funded by NASA\u2019s Heliophysics Guest Investigator Open (HGIO) program and Consequences of Fields and Flows in the Interior and Exterior of the Sun (COFFIES) DRIVE Center, a NASA-funded initiative.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of COFFIES aims is to predict where and when the Sun will produce its next big, flare-generating active region,\u201d said Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University professor and the lead of the COFFIES DRIVE Center.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy combining physics-based modelling with AI, this work lets us peer beneath the Sun\u2019s surface and reconstruct the magnetic conditions that give rise to those regions.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Researchers have developed a new tool that provides a first step toward forecasting space weather weeks in advance…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":314856,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[61,60,82,19450],"class_list":{"0":"post-314855","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-science","8":"tag-ie","9":"tag-ireland","10":"tag-science","11":"tag-space-weather"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314855","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=314855"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314855\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/314856"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=314855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=314855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=314855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}