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Along Africa\u2019s shores, satellite measurements from 1993 through 2024 captured a sharp spike in ocean height during the recent event.<\/p>\n
Drawing on those records, Franck Eitel Kemgang Ghomsi at the University of Manitoba<\/a> documented that sea surface levels rose about 1.1 inches (2.8 centimeters) above normal.<\/p>\n Unlike earlier El Ni\u00f1o episodes, this increase unfolded on top of decades of steady sea level rise already underway.<\/p>\n Starting from that higher baseline, the same climate pattern now pushes water<\/a> closer to critical thresholds for flooding in vulnerable coastal cities.<\/p>\n Why warmer water rises<\/p>\n Warm ocean water expands, so heat stored near the surface can lift sea<\/a> level without adding extra water.<\/p>\n In the study, thermal expansion accounted for over 70 percent of the rise, as warmer water occupies more space.<\/p>\n Weaker winds over tropical seas slowed cooling and kept more heat trapped near the surface.<\/p>\n That kind of heat-driven swelling can raise water levels in weeks, leaving coastal defenses little time to catch up.<\/p>\n A faster baseline rise<\/p>\n Long before El Ni\u00f1o showed up, the background sea level<\/a> around Africa had been climbing for decades.<\/p>\n From 2009 to 2024, the rise accelerated by 73 percent, as the yearly pace jumped from about 0.11 to 0.19 inches (0.28 to 0.48 centimeters).<\/p>\n With that higher starting point, even moderate ocean<\/a> cycles produced larger spikes along coastlines than they did in the 1990s.<\/p>\n Higher baseline seas made extreme water levels more likely, so past flood maps can underestimate future risk.<\/p>\n Compound coastal risks<\/p>\n Along much of Africa, the spike did not stay offshore; it pushed high water into bays, deltas, and crowded ports.<\/p>\n Across the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea, some event-time anomalies topped 3.5 inches (8.9 centimeters).<\/p>\n \u201cFor 38 coastal nations, these findings reveal compound threats to low-lying deltas and Small Island Developing States from flooding, ongoing land subsidence, and declining marine productivity,\u201d wrote Ghomsi.<\/p>\n When land slowly sinks while sea levels climb, towns can lose safe margins even on calm days.<\/p>\n Forecasters weigh the odds<\/p>\n In a February 12 discussion<\/a>, NOAA said the Pacific stayed in La Ni\u00f1a, with cooler-than-average surface waters persisting near the equator.<\/p>\n By spring, NOAA expected near-neutral conditions, as subsurface warming weakened the atmospheric patterns that kept La Ni\u00f1a in place.<\/p>\n For late summer and beyond, NOAA put the odds of El Ni\u00f1o at 50 percent to 60 percent, warning models vary.<\/p>\n Odds do not guarantee an El Ni\u00f1o, but a developing El Ni\u00f1o can lock in patterns for winter storms and droughts.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o and global heat<\/p>\n Global temperature records do not rise smoothly; El Ni\u00f1o can add a short burst of heat to the air.<\/p>\n A 2024 climate repor<\/a>t<\/a> noted that every month of 2024 saw record or near-record warmth during El Ni\u00f1o conditions.<\/p>\n Human-made greenhouse gases keep oceans storing more heat, so each El Ni\u00f1o now starts from a warmer floor.<\/p>\n If another El Ni\u00f1o forms late in 2026, its warming influence can linger into 2027 and strain heat-response plans.<\/p>\n Oceans hit coastal economies<\/p>\n Alongside higher water levels, unusually warm seas damaged fisheries and tourism businesses that depend on predictable seasons.<\/p>\n During marine heatwaves \u2013 long ocean hot spells that disrupt food webs \u2013 fish moved or died and catches fell.<\/p>\n Warmer water also holds less dissolved oxygen, and that change can squeeze species into smaller zones near shore.<\/p>\n Economic pain arrives early, long before a new El Ni\u00f1o shows up in global temperature charts.<\/p>\n Tracking tools remain scarce<\/p>\n Many African coastlines lacked dense monitoring, so some communities learned about unusual sea levels only after damage appeared.<\/p>\n Local tide gauges, coastal sensors that record water height, can catch a rising trend that satellites miss near shore.<\/p>\n Budget limits and equipment gaps left fewer measurements to feed early warnings, especially during fast-moving El Ni\u00f1o years.<\/p>\n When signals arrive late, emergency planners must rely on broader forecasts instead of local readings tailored to each harbor.<\/p>\n Preparing ahead of impact<\/p>\n Regional planners need lead time, and forecast centers try to provide it even when the ocean signal stays noisy.<\/p>\n A forecast from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society<\/a> showed El Ni\u00f1o odds rising later in 2026.<\/p>\n City engineers can update flood zones, raise key roads, and protect power gear before the next high-water season.<\/p>\n Flexible plans paid off even if El Ni\u00f1o failed to appear, because long-term sea rise keeps advancing.<\/p>\n Next steps for coasts<\/p>\n The new sea-level record shows how a warmer ocean can turn a familiar El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> into a sharper hazard.<\/p>\n As NOAA watches probabilities for late 2026, coastal decisions that reduce risk now stay useful even if forecasts change.<\/p>\n The study is published in Communications Earth & Environment<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2014\u2013<\/p>\n Like what you read?\u00a0Subscribe to our newsletter<\/a>\u00a0for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates.<\/p>\n Check us out on\u00a0EarthSnap<\/a>, a free app brought to you by\u00a0Eric Ralls<\/a>\u00a0and Earth.com.<\/p>\n \u2014\u2013<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sea level around Africa climbed higher during the 2023-2024 El Ni\u00f1o than during any comparable event recorded since…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":315823,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[246,61,60,82],"class_list":["post-315822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/315822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=315822"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/315822\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/315823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=315822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=315822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=315822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}