The quarterly continuous contract chart<\/a> shows that COMEX gold futures rose 29.6% from the end of 2025, $4,341.10 closing level, to the Q1 high of $5,626.80 per ounce on January 29, 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\nGravity hit gold with a sledgehammer in late January and early February, sending the leading precious metal 21.9% lower to $4,423.20 per ounce on February 2. While gold\u2019s price plunged by over 21%, it never reached the 2025 closing level and was back over $5,300 per ounce on March 2.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The case for higher highs<\/p>\n
The compelling case for a continuation of gold\u2019s bullish trend includes the following factors:<\/p>\n
Gold\u2019s bullish trend began in 1999 at $252.50 per ounce, and was over 22 times higher at the most recent late January 2026 high.
\nCentral banks, governments, monetary authorities, and supranational institutions continue to purchase gold, adding to reserves and validating gold\u2019s role in the global financial market.
\nThe deterioration in the purchasing power of the dollar and other fiat currencies has caused gold to appreciate.
\nU.S. sanctions and tariffs support higher gold prices as countries seek to divest from the leading fiat reserve currency, the dollar.
\nFalling U.S. interest rates are bullish for gold as they reduce the cost of carrying inventories.
\nGeopolitical and economic uncertainty and turmoil are bullish for gold.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A caution about parabolic markets<\/p>\n
The case for further downside corrections in gold prices includes:<\/p>\n
Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines. The correction from the high on January 29, 2026, to the low on February 2, 2026, is an example of the periodic corrections that can impact gold prices.
\nWhile central banks have continued to purchase gold, there is no guarantee they will continue to add to their reserves if the price continues to rise.
\nCommodity cyclicality suggests that prices can rise to levels that defy rational, reasonable, and logical prices that defy fundamental and technical analysis. However, prices often rise to unsustainable levels, triggering corrections.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Gold is not a typical commodity<\/p>\n
Gold is a unique asset. The precious metal has many industrial and ornamental applications, but it is also the oldest form of money and a means of exchange with a history of thousands of years. Over the past year, gold surpassed the euro as the world\u2019s second-leading reserve foreign exchange instrument.<\/p>\n
The bottom line is that traditional technical and fundamental analysis may be meaningless for gold, as its value is determined by government and individual investment activity. While governments have increased their gold exposure, individual investors are likely underinvested in the leading precious metal. \u00a0<\/p>\n
Central banks are critical for gold\u2019s price action over the coming months\u00a0<\/p>\n
While central banks steadily purchased gold, adding to their reserves, the official statistics are likely understated. China and Russia are leading gold-producing countries that have likely added their substantial domestic production to reserves to deflect the impact of U.S. sanctions and tariffs. Moreover, the 2022 \u201cno-limits\u201d alliance between Beijing and Moscow undermines the U.S. dollar\u2019s role in the global financial market. Choosing gold over U.S. dollars and U.S. government debt securities as reserve assets reduces the U.S. dominance in the global economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Central bank purchases have supported gold\u2019s appreciation. A continuation of higher highs likely depends on continued central bank gold accumulation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the trend in any market is always a trader\u2019s or investor\u2019s best friend, and it remains bullish in gold in early March 2026. Time will tell if gold prices eclipse the Q1 2026 high of $5,626.80 on the continuous COMEX futures contract from April through June to establish the eleventh consecutive quarterly record high. Given the powerful demand for gold and central bank buying, the odds favor higher highs over the coming months. \u00a0<\/p>\n
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