{"id":33399,"date":"2025-09-20T21:16:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-20T21:16:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/33399\/"},"modified":"2025-09-20T21:16:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-20T21:16:16","slug":"steady-unemployment-may-not-last-as-banks-cut-jobs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/33399\/","title":{"rendered":"Steady unemployment may not last as banks cut jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post-1060684 wp-image-1060805\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1060805\" data-capiid=\"46c71d3a74e5a7f1a46773f234e0209b\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1060805\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">It\u2019s been a big news week for ANZ. (Picture: William West)<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">ANALYSIS<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Could our major banks be unwittingly about to cause a rate cut?<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">One factor that the RBA monitors closely when considering rate movements is unemployment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">And while the current unemployment rate is steady at 4.2 per cent, revealed with today\u2019s release of the August job figures, this number could soon be much different.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said \u201cemployment fell by 5000 people and the number of unemployed fell by 1000 people in August.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cThis meant that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2 per cent while the participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 66.8 per cent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">These numbers are no chance of sparking the central bank into action, but a lot has happened since the end of August. Especially in the banking sector.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">There has been a raft of job cuts announced by lenders so far in September. First, it was ANZ with about 3500 roles to be cut this month, representing an estimated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/anz-fines-aussies-left-to-pay-price-of-industry-cost-cutting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">14 per cent reduction to its workforce<\/a>, according to Financial Services Union. On top of that, another 1000 contractor roles would be affected.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">And because banks like to follow each other\u2019s leads, NAB announced plans to cut 410 jobs, while a Bendigo Bank restructure would affect 637 staff, Bank of Qld is cutting 200 roles and moving half its call centre operations to India. Meanwhile, Westpac is reportedly considering about 1500 redundancies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Australia\u2019s workforce is at about 14 million people, so 14,000 job losses would be enough to move unemployment up to 4.3 per cent. In September so far, banks alone got us nearly halfway there.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">On top of this, BHP Mitsubishi Alliance announced 750 job cuts in Qld, Telstra is planning to add 550 role reductions to its already 2800 cuts this year and Australian biotech company CSL has announced 12,000 global lay-offs, a significant number of which could be in Australia.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post-1060684 wp-image-1060803\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1060803\" data-capiid=\"26be52d04c9f79acda7ee0624928c6eb\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1060803\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shane Oliver of AMP said it makes sense to continue easing if unemployment creeps up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">If more banks and other major companies follow suit, they might find they shift the unemployment dial far enough to prompt another rate cut.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">RBA Governor Michele Bullock has repeatedly emphasised the importance of unemployment figures in shaping cash rate decisions, and while the central bank forecasts a 4.3 per cent unemployment rate through to 2027, a strong increase in that figure would lead to pressure for further, accelerated rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Finder\u2019s RBA Cash Rate survey revealed in August that 80 per cent of experts believed unemployment would rise in the next 12 months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney, said \u201cunemployment is likely to edge a bit higher over the next 12 months as the economy continues to slow \u2026 perhaps towards the mid\u20114s. If the RBA continues to cut rates, that should help put a floor under the jobs market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Shane Oliver, AMP, said \u201cthe risks to unemployment are shifting to the upside and monetary policy is still tight so it makes sense to continue easing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"styles__StyledImage-sc-17n6uwl-1 hlcJVa size-full wp-post-1060684 wp-image-1060804\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1060804\" data-capiid=\"e0e8723facf69bd2664f8eb19963d0ba\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg&quot; viewBox=&quot;0 0 1280 720&quot;%3E%3C\/svg%3E\"  alt=\"SMARTdaily cover photo: RateCity's Sally Tindall\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-1060804\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall. Picture: Tim Hunter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">The news comes as banks continue to slash their fixed rate products out of cycle, to try to win customer share in a highly competitive market. And because they obviously believe variable rates will continue to fall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">CBA was the latest lender to go <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/cba-announces-landmark-cut-to-interest-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">below the 5 per cent interest mark<\/a>, with a 4.99 per cent rate for two-year fixed home loans. The move followed Westpac\u2019s announcement of a 4.89 per cent fixed rate product in late August.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">Canstar\u2019s data insights director Sally Tindall said there were now more than 30 lenders with at least one fixed rate product under 5 per cent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Text__Typography-sc-1103tao-0 bjGYxJ StyledP-sc-cebixd-0 bzEerj\">\u201cThe competition is heating up as banks encourage more borrowers to lock in,\u201d Ms Tindall said. \u201cSmaller lenders are offering rates as low as 4.64 per cent.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s been a big news week for ANZ. (Picture: William West) ANALYSIS Could our major banks be unwittingly&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33400,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[72,61,60,150],"class_list":["post-33399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-jobs","tag-business","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-jobs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33399"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33399\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33400"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}