{"id":334651,"date":"2026-03-08T01:22:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T01:22:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/334651\/"},"modified":"2026-03-08T01:22:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T01:22:12","slug":"iran-war-jitters-meet-the-buy-the-cannons-rule-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/334651\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran war jitters meet the buy-the-cannons rule \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

Markets have been jittery since the US-Iran<\/a> war broke out, but have they been jittery enough?<\/p>\n

Yes, gas prices have gone parabolic, oil prices have spiked and non-US stocks have seen some pretty heavy selling.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, S&P 500<\/a> selling has been relatively contained, prompting the boss of America\u2019s biggest bank, JPMorgan<\/a>\u2019s Jamie Dimon, to warn of a \u201clot of complacency\u201d. Cyberattacks or terrorist attacks, either in the US or around the world, should be expected, added Dimon. This was echoed by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who was \u201csurprised\u201d by the \u201cbenign\u201d market reaction.<\/p>\n

Part of the calm may reflect the apparent constraints of this conflict. Iran\u2019s ability to prolong hostilities may be limited by finite stockpiles. As for the US, Donald Trump\u2019s promise to do \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d unnerved some, but a drawn-out engagement carries political costs, especially with midterm elections looming in November. Additionally, Trump has long viewed the stock market as a scorecard for his administration, encouraging faith in the Taco trade (Trump always chickens out) and a so-called \u201cTrump put\u201d to cap the extent of any market correction.<\/p>\n

Of course, wars are inherently unpredictable, and events can quickly take on a life of their own. Indeed, analysts have already been caught out by a conflict that is the Middle East\u2019s widest since the second World War. \u201cOur base case assumed that an unprecedented disruption would remain improbable. That assumption failed,\u201d admitted JPMorgan\u2019s oil analysts.<\/p>\n

Still, buying on the sounds of cannon has historically been a winning strategy, says BCA Research geopolitical strategist Marko Papic. He notes that since 1940, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after the onset of conflict in roughly 85 percent of cases.<\/p>\n

The one caveat, says Papic, is that turbulence is common, with the first 60 days of any conflict tending to be volatile.<\/p>\n

In other words, fasten your seatbelts, but long-term investors should remember turbulence rarely lasts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Markets have been jittery since the US-Iran war broke out, but have they been jittery enough? Yes, gas…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":334652,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[72,969,61,60,9207,21446],"class_list":["post-334651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-donald-trump","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-jamie-dimon","tag-jp-morgan-chase"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=334651"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334651\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/334652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=334651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=334651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=334651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}