{"id":33534,"date":"2025-09-20T23:05:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-20T23:05:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/33534\/"},"modified":"2025-09-20T23:05:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-20T23:05:10","slug":"were-about-to-enter-the-historically-worst-week-of-the-year-for-us-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/33534\/","title":{"rendered":"We\u2019re about to enter the historically worst week of the year for US stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"css-14ve0pc\">The September scaries \u2014 the tendency for US stocks to <a href=\"https:\/\/sherwood.news\/markets\/september-stock-market-scaries-reared-on-day-one-will-pattern-hold\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"css-uubm0\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">perform poorly in the ninth month of the year<\/a> \u2014 have seemingly been vanquished this year. So far.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-14ve0pc\">However, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, was very early in highlighting a peculiar calendar quirk that implies some potential downside risk for next week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-14ve0pc\">Monday marks the start of the 39th trading week of the year. That\u2019s historically been the worst week for the S&amp;P 500, based on data going back to 1990, and the week that\u2019s seen the highest incidence of 1% drops for the benchmark US stock index. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-14ve0pc\">\u201cMeanwhile, the week after next is the one where stocks are most likely to have a moment,\u201d he wrote on September 11 (last Thursday). \u201cThere is something special about the week after September expiry and this has been true for basically ever. Could be a bit of the old fooled by randomness, but anyway.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sherwoodnews.imgix.net\/image002%20(1).png\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Median return of S&amp;P 500 by week\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"Median return of S&amp;P 500 by week\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;bottom:0;right:0;box-sizing:border-box;padding:0;border:none;margin:auto;display:block;width:0;height:0;min-width:100%;max-width:100%;min-height:100%;max-height:100%\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: Brent Donnelly, Spectra Markets<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sherwoodnews.imgix.net\/BrentChart.png\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"% of time S&amp;P 500 sees weekly drop of 1% or more\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"% of time S&amp;P 500 sees weekly drop of 1% or more\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;bottom:0;right:0;box-sizing:border-box;padding:0;border:none;margin:auto;display:block;width:0;height:0;min-width:100%;max-width:100%;min-height:100%;max-height:100%\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: Brent Donnelly, Spectra Markets<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-14ve0pc\">Donnelly also separately flagged, though, that seasonality has not been that useful of a trading tool this year:<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-14ve0pc\">\u201c2025 has not been good for the seasonality believers. My view is that seasonality functions mostly because of asymmetry of flows and human behavior around specific times of the year and political and macro shocks are bigger than those flows. So if you have a series of randomly-timed policy shocks month after month, that will blow the flows and the behavioral seasonality out of the water. That\u2019s my explanation for why seasonality has not worked this year. But I could be wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The September scaries \u2014 the tendency for US stocks to perform poorly in the ninth month of the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33535,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[72,61,60,123],"class_list":{"0":"post-33534","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ie","10":"tag-ireland","11":"tag-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33534\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33535"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}