{"id":338795,"date":"2026-03-10T13:08:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:08:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/338795\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T13:08:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:08:16","slug":"oscars-2026-who-will-win-who-should-win-and-who-shoulda-had-a-look-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/338795\/","title":{"rendered":"Oscars 2026: Who will win, who should win, and who shoulda had a look-in"},"content":{"rendered":"

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In 2007, just as the Oscar voting period reached its end, Eddie Murphy released Norbit. The immortal tale of a gawky dweeb (Murphy) married to a morbidly obese woman (also Murphy), Norbit was such an earth-shaking failure that many theorised it actively lost Murphy his once all-but-guaranteed Oscar for Dreamgirls.<\/p>\n

Flash forward to 2026, and the Eddie Murphy of today may well be Hamnet\u2019s Jessie Buckley<\/a>, her Norbit being Maggie Gyllenhaal\u2019s Frankenstein redo The Bride!, her \u201cmorbidly obese woman\u201d a cackling 1930s flapper possessed by the ghost of Mary Shelley. The Bride! has received an energetic drubbing<\/a>, with Buckley described as giving a performance \u201cso astonishingly poor and so catastrophically ill-judged that it almost needs to be seen to be believed\u201d. And that was in The Times! Could it really be bad enough to kill her Oscar chances?<\/p>\n

Of course, all this Buckley-losing speculation may just be proof that this awards season has gone on too long and everyone\u2019s a bit bored. We\u2019re days away from Sunday\u2019s ceremony \u2013 new, dramatic possibilities must be entertained! See also: the discourse surrounding last week\u2019s mysteriously unearthed clip of Buckley wishing death upon all cats<\/a> (or something).<\/p>\n

That said, who would have thought that in a season dominated by the idea of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet finally getting his Oscar for Marty Supreme, Sinners star Michael B Jordan suddenly seems likely to beat him to the Best Actor trophy?<\/p>\n

Taking in all these last-minute developments, we\u2019ve cast an eye over the major Oscar categories (the full list can be found here<\/a>) and decided who we think will likely win, who really should win, and who should have got a look-in.<\/p>\n

Best Picture<\/p>\n

Bugonia<\/p>\n

F1<\/p>\n

Frankenstein<\/p>\n

Hamnet<\/p>\n

Marty Supreme<\/p>\n

One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

The Secret Agent<\/p>\n

Sinners<\/p>\n

Sentimental Value<\/p>\n

Train Dreams<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

open image in gallery<\/p>\n

The big picture: Michael B Jordan (Smoke) and Michael B Jordan (Stack) in \u2018Sinners\u2019, and Leonardo DiCaprio (Bob Ferguson) in \u2018One Battle After Another\u2019 (Warner Bros)<\/p>\n

Will win: One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Should win: One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Shoulda got a look-in: It Was Just an Accident<\/p>\n

Last month, Bafta and the BBC abandoned any sense of duty of care and left both the Tourette syndrome campaigner John Davidson and the Sinners stars Michael B Jordan and Delroy Lindo flailing in the wind. As you will inevitably know by now<\/a>, Davidson\u2019s condition \u2013 which inspired the Bafta-winning drama I Swear \u2013 caused him to yell a racist slur as Jordan and Lindo walked on stage at one point in the ceremony, a slur that was inexplicably left intact in the BBC\u2019s broadcast despite a two-hour delay. Reactions were a soup of the fair and empathetic and the objectionably insane, but it\u2019s possible that it may have sparked a rush of voting appreciation for Sinners in the weeks since, driven by literal evidence that even at the highest levels of achievement, Black artists still have to deal with nonsense. So it\u2019s not out of the question for Sinners to score Best Picture, even if it has felt for a while that One Battle After Another has the win sewn up. And, let\u2019s call it as it is, One Battle was the best film of 2025, so probably should take the trophy. It would have been lovely to see Jafar Panahi\u2019s urgent, funny, thrillingly relevant drama It Was Just an Accident<\/a> here, though, likewise the runaway horror smash Weapons, which deserved a slot in Best Picture far more than F1, at the very least.<\/p>\n

Best Actor<\/p>\n

Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, Marty Supreme<\/p>\n

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon<\/p>\n

Michael B Jordan, Sinners<\/p>\n

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent<\/p>\n

\"Bravely<\/p>\n

open image in gallery<\/p>\n

Bravely obnoxious: Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet in Josh Safdie\u2019s \u2018Marty Supreme\u2019 (A24)<\/p>\n

Will win: Michael B Jordan, Sinners<\/p>\n

Should win: Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, Marty Supreme<\/p>\n

Shoulda got a look-in: Josh O\u2019Connor, The Mastermind<\/p>\n

Best Actor is typically where excitement goes to die, but this year it\u2019s suddenly the most interesting major category of the night. On 1 March, Michael B Jordan won Best Actor at the Actor Awards, which doubles as the last major pre-Oscar awards ceremony and serves as a reliable \u2013 if not always exact \u2013 indicator of how Oscar night will unfold. Jordan has a lot going for him, though. The Bafta controversy shone a major, positive spotlight on Sinners as a whole, while Jordan is popular in the industry and feels as if he\u2019s filled the vacuum left behind by two men who were at one point or another the category favourite: the wheels seemed to fly off Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet\u2019s, um, vaguely smug Oscar campaign<\/a> a few months ago, while DiCaprio has been a mercurial presence on the circuit (chances are he may miss the actual ceremony, too, as he\u2019s shooting Martin Scorsese\u2019s new film). Voila: a Jordan win. And he\u2019s so good in the movie \u2013 playing twins, no less! \u2013 that few would complain. But it is a bit frustrating that Chalamet has very publicly wanted the Best Actor win this year, which is always an approach that tends to leave voters cold. His work in Marty Supreme is thrilling, proper batten-down-the-hatches, here\u2019s-a-movie-star stuff, that is ballsy and funny and bravely obnoxious. Missing here, arguably, is Josh O\u2019Connor, who had a fantastic year (he comfortably stole the show in the third Knives Out) and is lovingly grotesque as a wealthy scumbag art thief in the black comedy The Mastermind<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Best Actress<\/p>\n

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet<\/p>\n

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You<\/p>\n

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue<\/p>\n

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value<\/p>\n

Emma Stone, Bugonia<\/p>\n

\"To<\/p>\n

open image in gallery<\/p>\n

To win or not to win: Jessie Buckley in \u2018Hamnet\u2019 (Universal Pictures)<\/p>\n

Will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet<\/p>\n

Should win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You<\/p>\n

Shoulda got a look-in: Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love<\/p>\n

Jessie Buckley\u2019s undeniably affecting work as a grieving mother will undoubtedly lead her to her first Oscar win this year<\/a>, but I was admittedly far more struck by Rose Byrne\u2019s funny, freaky turn as a mum at her wits\u2019 end in If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You<\/a>. Byrne is one of those actors who\u2019s turned in spectacular performances for more than two decades (Bridesmaids! Spy! Marie Antoinette!) and often to minimal awards acclaim, so perhaps the nomination here is enough. Still, I\u2019d like to see her swipe it at the last minute. Separately, let\u2019s pour one out for Jennifer Lawrence, whose career-best work as a fraying mother<\/a> in Lynne Ramsay\u2019s Die My Love deserved a hell of a lot more awards attention. I will repeat this statement until I\u2019m in my grave, frankly.<\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actor<\/p>\n

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein<\/p>\n

Delroy Lindo, Sinners<\/p>\n

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, Sentimental Value<\/p>\n

\"Mad<\/p>\n

open image in gallery<\/p>\n

Mad for it: Sean Penn (with Teyana Taylor) in \u2018One Battle After Another\u2019 (Warner Bros)<\/p>\n

Will win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Should win: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Shoulda got a look-in: Ralph Fiennes, 28 Years Later<\/p>\n

This is another tricky category to call. There\u2019s been no decisive winner in Best Supporting at the major precursor ceremonies, with Jacob Elordi taking the Critics\u2019 Choice Award, Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd the Golden Globe, and Sean Penn taking the Bafta and the Actor Award. My money is on Penn to win the Oscar, primarily because he\u2019s so big and funny and mad in One Battle After Another, but there\u2019s also a world where Delroy Lindo<\/a>, for his drunken bluesman in Sinners, could sneak in and swipe it on the night. Least likely (sadly) is probably Benicio del Toro, whose sharp, sensitive work in One Battle is a ray of wholesomeness in an otherwise charged movie. Speaking of, wouldn\u2019t it have been lovely to see Ralph Fiennes in here? In a movie as gnarly as 28 Years Later, Fiennes injected a gentle, endearing whimsy.<\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actress<\/p>\n

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value<\/p>\n

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value<\/p>\n

Amy Madigan, Weapons<\/p>\n

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners<\/p>\n

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

\"No<\/p>\n

open image in gallery<\/p>\n

No dial-in performance: Teyana Taylor in \u2018One Battle After Another\u2019 (Warner Bros)<\/p>\n

Will win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Should win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Shoulda got a look-in: Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme<\/p>\n

A nice thing about the Best Supporting Actress category this year is that all five women are bona fide supporting players in their respective movies, who sweep in, steal the show, then bounce. No Ariana-in-Wicked category fraud here! And it\u2019s for that reason that I\u2019d love to see Teyana Taylor take the Oscar on the night. Her volatile revolutionary disappears from One Battle After Another after the first half hour, but haunts every second of the movie that follows. It\u2019s the performance of the year, Taylor finding the humanity in a character who is erratic, naive and passionate yet completely infuriating. Separate to Taylor, this is a very strong collection of performances, but annoyingly, MIA is Gwyneth Paltrow, who joins Jennifer Lawrence in the role of \u201cactor doing career-best work but who bafflingly struggled to get awards traction this year\u201d. As a semi-retired actress embroiled in a mortifying affair with Chalamet\u2019s ping-pong sleazebag in Marty Supreme, she glides into the movie and, in one scene of breathless confrontation, nearly steals it from under its star.<\/p>\n

Best Director<\/p>\n

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Ryan Coogler, Sinners<\/p>\n

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme<\/p>\n

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value<\/p>\n

Chlo\u00e9 Zhao, Hamnet<\/p>\n

\"Battle-hardened:<\/p>\n

open image in gallery<\/p>\n

Battle-hardened: Paul Thomas Anderson at the Oscar nominees luncheon in February (Getty)<\/p>\n

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n

Shoulda got a look-in: Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You<\/p>\n

On paper, Paul Thomas Anderson has this category in the bag, but there is still the Sinners question hanging over this year\u2019s Oscars \u2013 there is absolutely a version of Sunday night that sees Sinners sweep, with everything from Best Director to Best Supporting Actress going its way. And while it\u2019s hard to say that Ryan Coogler is overdue an Oscar, he\u2019s made a career out of beating the odds so far \u2013 he made Black Panther, a Marvel movie that had a real directorial stamp on it, directed Fruitvale Station and Creed to raves, and got Sinners off the ground in the first place, despite how hard it is to mount an entirely original, expensive blockbuster today. Plus, it made a ton of money. A Coogler Best Director win isn\u2019t out of the question. I\u2019d argue that he should have been joined in this category, though, by If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You\u2019s Mary Bronstein, who worked stressful wonders on a shoestring budget.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":338796,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[321,93,61,60],"class_list":["post-338795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-celebrities","tag-celebrities","tag-entertainment","tag-ie","tag-ireland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/338795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=338795"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/338795\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/338796"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=338795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=338795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=338795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}