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\n\tAfter what seems like a full year of talking about these films, the time has come to make predictions for the winners of the 98th Oscars. For a while, on paper at least, it has appeared to be a fairly easy year to predict. Virtually all the endless precursor awards settled on One Battle After Another until Sinners shook up the race at the very last minute (halfway through actual Oscar voting) at last week\u2019s Actor Awards<\/a>, and suddenly some were declaring the race had opened up. Other than Best Actress<\/a>, the acting races also appeared fluid going into final balloting.<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Oscar Nominations 2026: \u2018Sinners\u2019 Leads With Record 16, \u2018One Battle\u2019 13<\/a><\/p>\n \n\tBut the real wild card, as I have been writing<\/a>, is a new Academy stipulation that voters must attest they have seen all the nominees in a category before voting. Although this is largely on an honesty basis, there are technical additions to the ballot that may have complicated the process for voters. You have to click that you have seen a film if not already given credit on the Academy\u2019s digital screening room.<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: How To Watch The Oscars Online & On TV<\/a><\/p>\n \n\tAnytime there is new technology there can be problems, and I have heard for some there were. One voter who first chose to vote for International Feature Film told me their entire ballot shut down with a \u201cThank you for voting.\u201d Calling the helpline, the Academy member apologized for bothering and said the IT person told them they weren\u2019t alone, and the helpline has been very \u201cbusy\u201d with others experiencing similar problems as well as other glitches. This voter had to get their ballot restored in order to vote in the remainder of the categories and told me they never could have figured it out on their own. In the end, bugs and all, everyone wanting to vote got to vote.<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Where To Watch The 2026 Oscar Contenders, From \u2018Sinners\u2019 To \u2018Sentimental Value\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n \n\tStill, the new rule requiring \u201cproof\u201d or at least personal attestment to watching the films clearly has been intimidating for some, adding more pressure than usual, based on my informal surveys, and perhaps resulting in a smaller number of voters this year among the 10,000-plus eligible pool. The Academy never comments on numbers, but at a dinner the other night with a couple of members, one stunned me by saying they weren\u2019t voting at all. This member had always dutifully participated for decades, even been involved in the campaigns, but this year confessed they just hadn\u2019t seen enough so decided to skip it entirely rather than just vote for what they had seen. The other member though had watched everything, even the shorts, and was a model voter. I talked with a few who even mentioned the names of films they were running out of time to see; Hamnet and Sentimental Value came up more than once.<\/p>\n \n\tAfter my column headlined \u201cCan Oscar Voters Be Trusted<\/a>\u201d ran, I got some interesting responses, none more so than the following email from a past major-category Oscar-nominated filmmaker:<\/p>\n \u201cHi, Pete, I enjoy your articles. \n\tAll of this is to preface the below predictions with a grain of salt, as it were. The various \u201cbrutally honest\u201d ballots shared online have indicated some members who did vote were liberally skipping categories (most notably the short films) or choosing not to vote in others, because they haven\u2019t seen all the nominees. It will be fascinating to see if this admirable attempt by the Academy to try and ensure members were seeing the movies before voting for them actually affects the outcome \u2014 especially in terms of turnout, as the new rules only apply to final voting, not nomination rounds. This new wrinkle certainly adds a level of suspense and further unease for those of us tasked with the annual prediction game.<\/p>\n \n\tSo below are my predictions, not necessarily my choices if I had a ballot (I don\u2019t) but just where I think the winds are blowing. Feel free to use them for your Oscar betting pools but, as I always say, don\u2019t sue me if you lose.<\/p>\n \tBest Picture<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: Train Dreams, Sinners, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein, F1: The Movie, Bugonia<\/p>\n \n\tIn 1952, the Best Picture<\/a> race was widely predicted as a close one between Paramount\u2019s A Place in the Sun and Warner Bros\u2019 A Streetcar Named Desire. However, in a shocker, the winner was MGM\u2019s earlier-in-the-year release, An American in Paris. MGM even took out a trade ad the next day showing a drawing of their logo Leo the Lion with the caption: \u201cHonestly I Was Just Standing in the Sun Waiting For a Streetcar.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Oscars: Every Best Picture Winner Back To The Beginning In 1929<\/a><\/p>\n \n\tFile this under you don\u2019t always know what might happen, and with the Academy\u2019s preferential ballot in play only for this category \u2014 where voters must list their 10 choices by preference in order to get a \u201cconsensus\u201d \u2014 well, surprises pop up (Moonlight, anyone?). This year, like 1952, there are two films considered to be top of the heap: One Battle After Another and Sinners, both from Warner Bros. But from the Gotham Awards<\/a> onward, One Battle has dominated the conversation and become unquestioned front-runner. In fact, it has had a run of the precursor awards like I have rarely seen, a complete sweep until just a week ago, when Sinners beat it for the Outstanding Cast at the Actor Awards<\/a> (SAG-AFTRA\u2019s version of Best Picture). The room erupted, and suddenly some pundits were smelling upset, especially since Sinners also handily broke the all-time Oscar nominations record<\/a> with a whopping 16. One Battle has a more down-to-earth 13. Are we looking at another battle of two titans as in 1952, with a possible sleeper lurking in wait to take it all?<\/p>\n \n\tCalm down. The safe bet, if there is one, remains Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s instant classic, as it has been since that official Academy screening before the film opened in September. The packed house of members at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater that night went wild, unlike I have ever witnessed there. I thought it already had it won then, and I see no reason to change that prediction. Still, momentum can mean a lot, and Sinners certainly has it. All we have to do for a note of caution is remember 2006, when Brokeback Mountain had all those precursor wins, only to lose the big one to Crash, which surged after a SAG Cast win followed by WGA, just as Sinners has done. However, like One Battle After Another, Brokeback also won at WGA, plus PGA, DGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, etc. Will history repeat itself? I doubt it.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: One Battle After Another<\/p>\n \tBest Actor In A Leading Role<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent.<\/p>\n \n\tAfter wins at both Critics Choice<\/a> and Golden Globes<\/a>, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet was considered the front-runner here, pretty much a lock to nab his first Oscar on the heels of being nominated twice before \u2014 including last year for A Complete Unknown. However, once it came to the awards the industry votes upon, he lost at BAFTA<\/a> to Robert Aramayo in I Swear. But I Swear isn\u2019t eligible at the Oscars this year, plus it is British so could be written off as just a quirk of BAFTA. But then, at SAG-AFTRA\u2019s Actor Awards<\/a>, Chalamet lost again, this time to Michael B. Jordan, in a victory that sent a bolt of electricity through the room and reset this race which is now virtually anyone\u2019s to win. It is no doubt tight, and I wouldn\u2019t count Chalamet out, but the momentum seems elsewhere. As for the stupid latest trumped-up controversy over Chalamet\u2019s \u201cdismissal\u201d of ballet and opera<\/a> \u2014 it\u2019s not only taken out of context, it didn\u2019t go viral until after voting closed. I wouldn\u2019t be surprised by any of this quintet winning. Hawke\u2019s movie is the least seen and only non-Best Picture nominee, but<\/a> if voters are honest and see all five, he has a real shot. Still, the safer bet at the moment is\u2026<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Oscars: Every Best Actor Oscar Winner Back To 1927<\/a><\/p>\n \tBest Actress In A Leading Role<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Emma Stone, Bugonia; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You<\/p>\n \n\tAfter winning at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA and the Actor Awards, can there be any doubt? This one was likely locked the minute the first screening of Hamnet ended at Telluride. The box office woes of her just-released movie The Bride! are not a Norbit moment (\u00e1 la Eddie Murphy), as voting was closed before the movie opened this weekend. Not that it would have mattered anyway.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Oscars: Every Best Actress Winner Since 1929<\/a><\/p>\n \tBest Actor In A Supporting Role<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, Sentimental Value; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n \n\tThis is another wide-open category that has produced different results all season long. Elordi won at Critics Choice, Del Toro was the victor among numerous key critics groups, Skarsg\u00e5rd won the Golden Globe, and Lindo is considered long overdue. However, Penn, with two Oscar wins already, seems poised to add a third as the unforgettable Steven Lockjaw, plus he has come on strong at BAFTA <\/a>and the Actor Awards.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Oscars: Every Best Supporting Actor Oscar Winner Back To 1937<\/a><\/p>\n \tBest Actress In A Supporting Role<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n \n\tLook for the pair from Sentimental Value to cancel each other out. Similarly, Mosaku and Taylor being in the year\u2019s two most-nominated films could also split voters allegiance. This all leaves an opening for Critics Choice and Actor Awards winner Madigan<\/a> who will prevail, despite being the single nomination that her film Weapons got, and despite being a horror film performance. It\u2019s unique, and she\u2019s widely admired, gaining her first nomination, and second ever, in 40 years.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Oscars: Every Best Supporting Actress Winner Back To 1937<\/a><\/p>\n \tBest Directing<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Ryan Coogler, Sinners; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Chlo\u00e9 Zhao, Hamnet<\/p>\n \n\tDGA, Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner, and 14-time Oscar nominee long overdue, this seems an easy call, but if there is true momentum for Sinners an upset for Coogler wouldn\u2019t be a complete shock, making him the first-ever Black winner in this category.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Oscars: Every Best Director Oscar Winner Back To 1928<\/a><\/p>\n \tBest Original Screenplay<\/p>\n \t\t\t \tBest Adapted Screenplay<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: Bugonia<\/a>, Train Dreams<\/a>, One Battle After Another, Hamnet<\/a>, Frankenstein<\/a><\/p>\n \n\tThis one is a lock, as if PTA even had to prove it was by winning Sunday at the WGAs, following his collection of writing wins all season long.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another<\/p>\n \tBest Animated Feature<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2, Arco<\/p>\n \n\tCritical acclaim and being the highest-grossing movie of the year aside for Disney and Zootopia 2, this one will go to Netflix and Sony Pictures Animation\u2019s inventive South Korean musical, the winner of 10 Annie Awards<\/a>.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Every Oscars Best Animated Feature Winner Since 2002<\/a><\/p>\n \tBest International Feature Film<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: The Secret Agent, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Sir\u0101t, Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident.<\/p>\n \n\tA very tough category, but considering it has nine nominations including Best Picture, Norway should come up a winner for the first time. But don\u2019t be surprised if Brazil, last year\u2019s winner, repeats with The Secret Agent, also a Best Picture nominee. I would say it is close to a toss-up here.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Sentimental Value (Norway)<\/p>\n \n\tRELATED: Best International Feature Film Oscar Winners Through The Years<\/a><\/p>\n \tBest Documentary Feature Film<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: The Alabama Solution, The Perfect Neighbor, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, Cutting Through Rocks, Come See Me in the Good Light<\/p>\n \n\tAgain with the new rule stipulating you must watch all five nominees, a less-favored contender could sneak in, such as BAFTA winner Mr. Nobody Against Putin, which has its supporters. Still, the Netflix machine and the most widely seen among the five will be the one to beat.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor<\/p>\n \tBest Casting<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: Sinners, The Secret Agent, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet<\/p>\n \n\tA brand new category, long in the making and finally here. Veteran Francine Maisler looks to be the likely winner for the year\u2019s most-nominated film.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Sinners<\/p>\n \tBest Cinematography<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Frankenstein, Train Dreams, Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme<\/p>\n \n\tHistory could be made here with not only the first woman, but also first Black woman, to win if Autumn Durald Arkapaw triumphs. She very well could but has tough competition from the gorgeous Train Dreams, and BSC and newly minted ASC winner Michael Bauman<\/a>\u2018s expert lensing for One Battle After Another. Since this award tends to go to the most cinematic, I am going to stick with my Best Picture pick.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: One Battle After Another<\/p>\n \tBest Film Editing<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Sinners, Sentimental Value, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, F1: The Movie<\/p>\n \n\tOften this goes right along with Cinematography if you are looking for a Best Picture winner. Not always though, and a film like F1: The Movie could surprise.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: One Battle After Another<\/p>\n \tBest Production Design<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein<\/p>\n \n\tGuillermo del Toro\u2019s lavishly appointed monster epic will prevail here.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Frankenstein<\/p>\n \tBest Costume Design<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Frankenstein<\/p>\n \n\tThe most \u201ccostumey\u201d costumes usually take this prize. Short of a Sinners sweep \u2026<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Frankenstein<\/p>\n \tBest Original Music Score<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Sinners, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Frankenstein, Bugonia<\/p>\n \n\tThe Deep South blues sounds of Sinners<\/a> will bring composer Ludwig G\u00f6ransson a third Oscar in this category. He won previously in 2019 and in 2024 for his Black Panther and Oppenheimer scores, respectively.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Sinners<\/p>\n \tBest Original Song<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d from Train Dreams; \u201cSweet Dreams of Joy\u201d from Viva Verdi!; \u201cI Lied to You\u201d from Sinners; \u201cGolden\u201d from KPop Demon Hunters; \u201cDear Me\u201d from Diane Warren: Relentless<\/p>\n \n\tThe 17-time nominee Diane Warren will have to wait another year because the most likely winner here is the biggest movie song of the year. Unless Sinners is dominating and sweeps in that cool blues tune.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: \u201cGolden\u201d from KPop Demon Hunters<\/p>\n \tBest Makeup And Hairstyling<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: The Ugly Stepsister, The Smashing Machine, Kokuho, Sinners, Frankenstein<\/p>\n \n\tTime and time again we have seen a correlation between the winner here and an acting winner or nominee. This time the team behind the creation of the Creature played by Jacob Elordi have this in the bag.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Frankenstein<\/p>\n \tBest Sound<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: F1: The Movie, Sir\u0101t, Sinners, One Battle After Another, Frankenstein<\/p>\n \n\tHistorically, car race movies from Grand Prix to Ford v Ferrari have reigned supreme for sound. I don\u2019t see any reason to change that trajectory.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: F1: The Movie<\/p>\n \tBest Visual Effects<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Sinners, The Lost Bus, Jurassic World Rebirth, F1: The Movie<\/p>\n \n\tThe first two Avatar movies won this award. No reason to believe the third time isn\u2019t also a charm.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash<\/p>\n \tBest Documentary Short<\/p>\n \n\tNOTE: It is clear voting in the three shorts categories is not nearly as wide as other categories. This could be decided by just a few hundred members, so these are the deal-breakers in any betting pool. I have seen and reviewed them all<\/a>.<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: All the Empty Rooms, Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death Of Brent Renaud, Children No More: \u201cWere and Are Gone,\u201d The Devil Is Busy, Perfectly a Strangeness<\/p>\n \n\tThe most gut-wrenchingly emotional is All the Empty Rooms, in which reporter Steve Hartman visits the now-empty bedrooms of kids killed in school shootings. Emotional impact is a big factor here, but I would say the biggest challenger could be the anti-abortion doc The Devil Is Busy, which follows a day in the life of an Atlanta abortion clinic.<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: All the Empty Rooms<\/p>\n \tBest Live Action Short<\/p>\n \n\tThe Nominees: Butcher\u2019s Stain, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Singers, Jane Austen\u2019s Period Drama, A Friend of Dorothy<\/p>\n \n\tA Friend of Dorothy with the great Miriam Margolyes is a delight. The Singers is special and boasts a terrific cast of non-actors. And Two People Exchanging Saliva is truly surreal and memorable. Hard to pick among these three alone, and I imagine that was a problem for the voters. On a hunch though, due to its black-and-white cinematic style and stylistic look, the one with the most international appeal \u2026<\/p>\n \n\tTHE WINNER: Two People Exchanging Saliva<\/p>\n
I thought you might be interested to hear a take from an Academy member about this year\u2019s rules.\u00a0I haven\u2019t seen even half of the nominated films, nor do I care to, because my time is far too valuable to spend watching movies I know I\u2019d never vote for (much less be able to sit through).\u00a0I found most of the films I did see to be mediocre,\u00a0and nothing that I nominated made the final cut.\u00a0Therefore, since I don\u2019t want to lie, I decided I simply would not vote at all this year.\u00a0Yes, I\u2019d like to vote for K-Pop Demon Hunters, but not at the price of watching four other movies I know won\u2019t be as good.\u00a0But really, the Oscars have become pretty irrelevant.\u00a0Anora? CODA?\u00a0Everything Everywhere All At Once? vs The Godfather, Lawrence of Arabia, Patton?\u00a0Which three movies will people still be watching five years from now?\u00a0It\u2019s all about the film, not the award.\u00a0Rather than watch the Awards, I\u2019ll probably watch Singin\u2019 In The Rain or North By Northwest or The Searchers \u2013 REAL best pictures which weren\u2019t even nominated.
Feel free to quote me, but please don\u2019t use my name.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"Scenes](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/MixCollage-25-Nov-2025-01-56-PM-5006.webp.jpeg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Warner Bros\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"Jessie](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/4238_D033_00617_R.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Agata Grzybowska\/Focus Features\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"Ryan](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Headshot_Ryan-Coogler_PC-Gareth-Cattermole.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Gareth Cattermole\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"Paul](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/GettyImages-2255288156.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Rich Polk\/Penske Media via Getty Images\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"'KPop](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/KPOP_mktg005_8KHigh_Lyrs_lm_v15.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Netflix\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"'Sentimental](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MCDSEVA_EC021.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Neon\/Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"OS](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/GettyImages-2264306144.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Matt Winkelmeyer\/Getty Images\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"FRANKENSTEIN.](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/350_PF_20240529_29750_R.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Ken Woroner\/Netflix\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"Brad](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/MCDFONE_WB060.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Warner Bros\/Everett Collection\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"(L-R)](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/3248B_0010_v0800.le_.1131.jpg\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: 20th Century Studios \t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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