Round five of the Six Nations gets underway at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Saturday afternoon, where Ireland will host Scotland before the games elsewhere involving Wales versus Italy in Cardiff and France against England in Paris.<\/p>\n
That title permutations surrounding this match at the old Lansdowne Road highlights how ridiculously unpredictable this 2026 edition of the tournament has been.<\/p>\n
Following the French hammering of the Irish and the Italians drowning the Scots in Round One, no one in their right mind after that first weekend in February would have said this Irish versus Scots finale would have a major impact on the destination of the Championship trophy.<\/p>\n
Yet here we are, with these reconfigured teams respectively coached by Andy Farrell and Gregor Townsend having a big say.<\/p>\n
With Scotland<\/a> only behind the table-topping French on points difference and Ireland<\/a> two points back in third spot, the winners of this match-up in Dublin will clinch a Triple Crown success and also move to the top of the table.<\/p>\n Whether they permanently stay there is, of course, dependent on how Les Bleus fare later that night at Stade de France \u2013 but the fact that one of these two teams will be on top by 4pm on Saturday will be a remarkable turnaround for whichever side it is.<\/p>\n Ireland come into the final day having followed the revitalising Round Three demolition of England<\/a> in London with a hard-fought 27-17 bonus point win over Wales in Dublin. The Irish struggled with how the Welsh steered clear from contesting multiple breakdowns and instead filled the field with their defensive line.<\/p>\n That strategy put a stop to Ireland\u2019s early gallop<\/a>, and they needed Jamie Osborne\u2019s 68th-minute try to extend a shaky two-point lead and then a 77th-minute Jack Crowley penalty to finally secure the victory.<\/p>\n Farrell has now named an XV showing four changes, with Tommy O\u2019Brien taking over from the omitted Jacob Stockdale on the left wing and the trio of Dan Sheehan, Joe McCarthy and Josh van der Flier coming into the pack at the expense of the benched hooker Ronan Kelleher, the injured second-row James Ryan and back-rower Nick Timoney, another forward who reverts to the subs.<\/p>\n Also fresh to the Irish bench this weekend are tighthead Finlay Bealham, rookie lock Darragh Murray, scrum-half Craig Casey and the suspension-free Bundee Aki.<\/p>\n Scotland, meanwhile, flew to Dublin buzzing on the back of their one-for-the-ages destruction that smashed to smithereens the designs the French had on a Grand Slam. So clinical were Townsend\u2019s charges that they led 47-14 with 16 minutes remaining before catch-up play from the stunned visitors eventually left the final result 50-40.<\/p>\n Townsend has now made three alterations to his starting pack<\/a>, with lock duo Max Williamson and Grant Gilchrist replacing the injured pair of Gregor Brown and Scott Cummings. Zander Fagerson also starts at tighthead, having been a sub last weekend, with D\u2019arcy Rae moving to the replacements where second-row Alex Craig, back-row Magnus Bradbury and winger\/full-back Kyle Rowe all feature for the first time this year.<\/p>\n Six Nations 2026: What Ireland, France and Scotland need to win the title plus fixtures, broadcasters and match officials<\/a><\/p>\n Where the game will be won<\/p>\n Rugby is often a predictable sport, but that has gone out the window in this Six Nations. For instance, last weekend\u2019s Planet Rugby predictions had Ireland to beat Wales by 30 points<\/a> and France to do likewise against Scotland by 12<\/a>.<\/p>\n With the Irish winning by only 10 and the Scots upsetting the French by 10, those particular forecasts didn\u2019t age well, but what those Round Four results illustrate is the form inconsistencies currently surrounding these two teams and how it is really is awkward to gauge precisely how well they will play from one match to the next.<\/p>\n After all, the Irish were coming off the immense pounding they gave England at Twickenham while the Scots only squeaked it at the death versus the Welsh in Cardiff. Neither of those Round Three performance trends continued into what they produced in Round Four, the Irish struggling for momentum and the Scots playing above themselves in an unexpected swashbuckling manner.<\/p>\n In keeping with the fluctuating form of this duo this year, our expectation now is that the Irish will raise their game while the Scots won\u2019t be as effective and clinical. Where that leaves the final result is the tricky bit to work out with any certainty.<\/p>\n The Scots have been immense when in the groove, their pack a sticky glue and their backs jammed with creativity, including some clinical first-phase strike plays. The Irish, meanwhile, have generally laboured all year, apart from the swaggering second section of their opening half in England where they suddenly ran amok.<\/p>\n It has been the winning of a competition high number of turnovers (35) that has energised the Irish, including another chart-topping figure of most lineout steals (5). With Scotland losing lock duo Brown and Cummings to injury last weekend, this is perhaps an area they can now go after, but they will also be mindful of their vulnerable scrum, particularly with Zander Fagerson promoted to start against them. The visitors also have the greater accuracy off the kicking tee, something to factor in if the margins are wafer thin.<\/p>\n However, also in favour of the Irish is their high level of post-contact metres, another chart-topping stat of 570 compared to Scotland\u2019s fifth-best 412. It suggests Ireland have way more heft in the carry, which will be needed as a category convincingly led by the Scots is the fewest missed tackles (69 to Ireland\u2019s 107).<\/p>\n Ireland team: Winners and losers as ageing star has point to prove following \u2018recent controversy\u2019 while Connacht man wins \u2018battle of the rookies\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n Last time they met<\/p>\n \ufeff<\/p>\n What they said<\/p>\n The narrative that nearly always arises with this fixture is for the Scots to hype themselves up and the Irish to quietly go about their business. For example, you had this happen in the lead-up to pool matches at successive World Cups, only for Scotland to then fail to walk the giddy talk.<\/p>\n They have been chatting big again this week, record Scottish try-scorer Darcy Graham suggesting that Ireland are \u201cthere for the taking\u201d. It\u2019s the sort of confident comment that won\u2019t have gone unnoticed by the Irish, who like having their say when the match is over, as happened in 2023 when Peter O\u2019Mahony highlighted how Blair Kinghorn claimed they had them figured only to soon realise the kick-off that they hadn\u2019t and weren\u2019t even close.<\/p>\n Head coach Townsend was a touch more diplomatic, refusing to entertain title talk when quizzed on Thursday after his team announcement. What he was adamant about, though, was that \u201cwe\u2019ll leave everything out there\u201d. That is something the Scots have boasted of before but then failed to deliver in a miserable run of 11 straight losses against the Irish.<\/p>\n Farrell, meanwhile, was all sweetness and light when box ticking at his team announcement media briefing later in the day, emphasising that \u201cgreat lad\u201d Graham was \u201centitled to his opinion\u201d and that Ireland, who have been \u201cpreparing for another Scottish performance\u201d like what they produced against France, \u201cwould have to be at our best to beat them\u201d.<\/p>\n Ireland legends highlight what Andy Farrell\u2019s \u2018very one-dimensional\u2019 team is missing and the \u2018breadcrumbs\u2019 Wales left for Scotland to follow<\/a><\/p>\n Players to watch<\/p>\n The battle of the 10s should be something to savour. Finn Russell is back in his pomp with the Scots, delivering a sumptuous display to eclipse Matthieu Jalibert and co. last weekend, while Jack Crowley will be delighted to have the No.10 shirt number on his back for a third successive match for the first time since July 2024. <\/p>\n It\u2019s been a long road back for him in his duel with Sam Prendergast and while his missed straightforward conversion to edge Ireland 26-17 up against the Welsh came in for much criticism last weekend, that aberration overlooked how competent he had been in moving the ball through his hands and also getting a try. <\/p>\n He could, of course, have changed it up the way the match developed, as Wales often has 14 players strung across their defensive line, so sure were they that a chip kick wasn\u2019t coming, but Crowley played it conservatively and was rewarded in the end by his team\u2019s plucky win.<\/p>\n Both scrum-halves will also wield plenty of influence. It was quite something that Scotland\u2019s Ben White got under the skin of Antoine Dupont at Murrayfield. And while Jamison Gibson-Park wasn\u2019t as sparky versus Tomos Williams as he had been versus the English, his speed of pass still had sway and White will need to be on his toes to try and slow this down. <\/p>\n Up front, we\u2019re looking forward to seeing how Pierre Schoeman\u00a0does at the scrum versus Tadhg Furlong, the veteran whose set-piece has been erratic, and what a badly needed rest has done for Dan Sheehan at hooker as he too has been another Lions tourist who has lost his growl. <\/p>\n Zander Fagerson propping against Tom O\u2019Toole should also be a good watch, with O\u2019Toole needing to provide more evidence that he really can be a reliable Test loosehead having served a wobbly apprenticeship at tighthead. Other collisions to have on your card ready to mark should be the bruisers at No.6, Jack Conan versus Matt Fagerson, and the nuisance makers at No.7, Josh van der Flier versus Rory Darge.<\/p>\n Stuart McCloskey and Sione Tuipulotu in the midfield is another physical duel to get the taste buds salivating, as is the meeting of the up-and-coming Robert Baloucoune versus the elusive Kyle Steyn. Baloucoune has his reputation dented when getting left for dead by try-scoring Welsh prop Rhys Carre, so a response is needed versus Steyn, who plundered the French for two tries.<\/p>\n On the other wing, Darcy Graham has been in super try-scoring form and it will be a challenge for the recalled Tommy O\u2019Brien to snuff out his threat. Glancing at the bench, the unknown is Ireland\u2019s naming of rookie Darragh Murray with Ryan injured. What a fixture for the two-capper to be making his Six Nations debut in. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Nigel Owens: Why Maro Itoje\u2019s yellow card was a \u2018straightforward\u2019 decision after World Rugby\u2019s message to referees<\/a><\/p>\n Main head-to-head<\/p>\n We can\u2019t look beyond the seismic smash-up featuring Ireland skipper Caelan Doris and his rival No.8 Jack Dempsey. Having missed the Lions through injury, the Irish talisman has been slowly but surely shifting through the gears to get back to his best form. <\/p>\n Those gaps that he once used to regularly cavort through have begun to reappear with the ball in hand, while his defence has been a bedrock of the Irish rebound from the canvas in Paris five weeks ago. <\/p>\n Dempsey is another who knows all about packing a punch just when it seems you have been counted out. He supposedly had been ruled out for the remainder of the Six Nations having sustained a bicep injury in the Round Two win over England, but he shrugged off that prognosis to bound back into the thick of it last weekend and help put manners on France\u2019s biggest boppers. \u00a0<\/p>\n His carrying was immense \u2013 he was a chart-topper in this area \u2013 and while his defence wasn\u2019t as energetic compared to what Doris demonstrated when dousing Welsh fire, his contribution in helping his side transform a 7-14 deficit into a 47-14 lead has teed him up nicely to now lead the charge against the Irish. \u00a0<\/p>\n Ex-England star claims Steve Borthwick not \u2018inspirational leader\u2019 as he slams coaches for \u2018lack of appetite\u2019 following Six Nations disaster<\/a><\/p>\n Prediction<\/p>\n This fixture has often witnessed Scotland mislaying their concentration when they most need it and losing their physical abrasiveness following a passage of dominant play in which they finally looked to have Ireland\u2019s number. That has, time and again, allowed the Irish escape to victory in the tighter contests, separate from the World Cup clashes where they have run away with it early.<\/p>\n Scotland will need to move the ball and constantly play with ambition, just as they did against France, if they are to succeed in collecting a first Triple Crown since 1990, but we fear they won\u2019t be as efficient as they were at Murrayfield and the teak, tough Irish will instead frustrate them at the breakdown.<\/p>\n Farrell\u2019s gang know what it takes to get this type of final day job done and while it ultimately won\u2019t be enough to snatch them the Championship title from France, retaining the Triple Crown will be a far more meaningful triumph for them than 13 months ago in Cardiff when they previously raised that trophy aloft. Ireland to win by eight points.<\/p>\n Law discussion: Why Eben Etzebeth was handed a much harsher ban for eye-gouging than Oscar Jegou<\/a><\/p>\n Previous results<\/p>\n 2025: Ireland won 32-18 at Murrayfield
2024: Ireland won 17-13 in Dublin
2023: Ireland won 36-14 in Paris
2023: Ireland won 22-7 at Murrayfield
2022: Ireland won 26-5 in Dublin
2021: Ireland won 27-24 at Murrayfield
2020: Ireland won 31-16 in Dublin
2020: Ireland won 19-12 in Dublin
2019: Ireland won 27-3 in Yokohama
2019: Ireland won 22-13 at Murrayfield
2018: Ireland won 28-8 in Dublin
2017: Scotland won 27-22 at Murrayfield<\/p>\n