{"id":34556,"date":"2025-09-21T13:04:15","date_gmt":"2025-09-21T13:04:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/34556\/"},"modified":"2025-09-21T13:04:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-21T13:04:15","slug":"a-key-business-story-to-watch-in-2026-%f0%9f%97%93%ef%b8%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/34556\/","title":{"rendered":"A key business story to watch in 2026 \ud83d\uddd3\ufe0f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83d\udcc8The stock market rallied to all-time highs, with the S&amp;P 500 setting an intraday high of 6,671.82 and a closing high of 6,664.36 on Friday. The index is now up 13.3% year-to-date. For more on the market, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/corporate-revenue-economywide-activity-divergence\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The stock market and the economy are diverging<\/a> \ud83d\udcca<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>With almost three quarters of 2025 in the rear-view mirror, market participants are increasingly shifting their focus toward 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs we met with a variety of US equity investors last week \u2014 ranging from hedge funds to high-net-worth retail, from high-level macro investors to stock pickers, and everything in between \u2014 it became clear to us that it\u2019s time to start talking more about 2026,\u201d RBC Capital Markets\u2019 Lori Calvasina said Monday.<\/p>\n<p>She preliminarily <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/tker.co\/post\/3lyunb5772k2l\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">sees<\/a> the S&amp;P 500 ending 2026 at 7,100 as earnings per share (EPS) grow about 10% to $297. (For more on how to think about year-end targets, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/rbc-2025-stock-market-outlook-compass-not-gps\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">A better way of thinking about Wall Street&#8217;s year-end price targets<\/a> \ud83d\uddfa\ufe0f)<\/p>\n<p>Her projections are derived from a blend of five models that factor in almost every imaginable macro variable.<\/p>\n<p>But one assumption caught my attention.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are baking in some margin expansion for 2026,\u201d she wrote. On the subject of profit margins, she added, \u201cOne of our biggest takeaways from 2Q25 reporting season is that companies are laser focused on mitigation strategies around tariffs.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>This is in line with Morgan Stanley\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173016938\/tariff-chatter-is-on-the-rise-get-ready-for-tariff-related-inflation\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">analysis<\/a> of Q2 earnings calls: \u201cUnsurprisingly, we saw a significant increase in the number of mentions of tariff mitigation strategies last quarter with many companies citing multiple strategies.\u201c<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Ebnf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f09eac1-9320-4612-888c-f1cf19e59d15_3102x942.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/1f09eac1-9320-4612-888c-f1cf19e59d15_3102.jpeg\" width=\"1456\" height=\"442\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/1f09eac1-9320-4612-888c-f1cf19e59d15_3102x942.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:442,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:255130,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173016938?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f09eac1-9320-4612-888c-f1cf19e59d15_3102x942.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>Executives are focused on mitigating costs associated with new tariffs. (Source: Morgan Stanley via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173016938\/tariff-chatter-is-on-the-rise-get-ready-for-tariff-related-inflation\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>And it\u2019s not just tariff mitigation that could bolster profit margins in the quarters to come.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDrivers for margin strength include operating leverage, continued e\ufb03ciency gains (AI and others), slowing employment inflation in many labor-intensive sectors, and the potential for cost-cutting from deregulation,\u201d BofA\u2019s Savita Subramanian wrote Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>While margin expansion in 2025 has mostly been driven by big tech companies, that growth is expected to broaden out across industries in 2026.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!NKyt!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d0bb77e-93df-4ae8-8abc-e482202a1df1_1562x698.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/2d0bb77e-93df-4ae8-8abc-e482202a1df1_1562.jpeg\" width=\"1456\" height=\"651\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/2d0bb77e-93df-4ae8-8abc-e482202a1df1_1562x698.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:651,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:164606,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d0bb77e-93df-4ae8-8abc-e482202a1df1_1562x698.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>Profit margins are expected to expand in more industries next year. (Source: BofA)<\/p>\n<p>Subramanian expects EPS to grow about 10% to $298 in 2026 as net margins increase by 40 basis points to 13.2%. She has yet to offer a 2026 price target for the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs also has yet to publish forecasts for 2026. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/wall-street-2025-stock-market-outlook\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">These calls typically come later in Q4<\/a>.) However, they have been discussing the prospects for growth in profit margins.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[A] cooling labor market is a tailwind to corporate profits, all else equal,\u201d Goldman Sachs\u2019 David Kostin wrote in a Sept. 12 note.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!eN7n!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5473154a-e26d-48fa-8f6c-1fdc58465fb7_810x371.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/5473154a-e26d-48fa-8f6c-1fdc58465fb7_810x.png\" width=\"810\" height=\"371\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/5473154a-e26d-48fa-8f6c-1fdc58465fb7_810x371.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:371,&quot;width&quot;:810,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:68276,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5473154a-e26d-48fa-8f6c-1fdc58465fb7_810x371.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>Labor represents a significant cost across industries. (Source: Goldman Sachs)<\/p>\n<p>\u201cProfit margins typically expand when companies can raise prices more quickly than materials input and labor costs,\u201d Kostin said. \u201cOur economists expect the U.S. economy will continue to expand in 2H 2025 and 2026, but slow job growth will keep a lid on wage growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/economic-growth-slowing-approaches-tipping-point\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">economy cooling<\/a>, workers don\u2019t have as much leverage as they used to to push for a raise.<\/p>\n<p>In what\u2019s arguably been the most surprising business development of the current economic cycle, profit margins remained historically high throughout <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/high-profit-margins-despite-inflation\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2021<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/inflation-costs-profit-margin-red-herring\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2022<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/profit-margins-defy-expectations\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2023<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/profit-margins-expected-to-stay-high\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2024<\/a>, and, so far, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/170604277\/keep-an-eye-on-tariffs\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2025<\/a>. And now analysts expect margins to expand in 2026 (and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/morgan-stanley-2027-eps-estimate\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2027!<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!KUx7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6e132cbb-4963-4c1c-8850-c7a0ba12da7d_2264x1636.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/6e132cbb-4963-4c1c-8850-c7a0ba12da7d_2264.jpeg\" width=\"1456\" height=\"1052\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/6e132cbb-4963-4c1c-8850-c7a0ba12da7d_2264x1636.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1052,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:369657,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6e132cbb-4963-4c1c-8850-c7a0ba12da7d_2264x1636.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>Profit margins remain historically high. (Source: Goldman Sachs)<\/p>\n<p>Whether it was supply chain disruptions, hot inflation, tight monetary policy, or the threat of higher tariffs, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/bofa-dangerous-to-underestimate-corporate-america\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Corporate America has successfully navigated<\/a> the treacherous cost environment to maintain historically high profit margins and generate record-high earnings.<\/p>\n<p>Can this trend really persist? We\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n<p>But for now, the case for high profit margins looks strong, supported by recent years of success.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>Related from TKer:<\/p>\n<p>I was on the <a href=\"https:\/\/excessreturnspod.com\/channel\/excess-returns\/video\/the-average-return-that-never-comes-sam-ro-on-10-stock-market-truths-investors-get-wrong\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Excess Returns<\/a> podcast with Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu. We discussed TKer\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/stock-market-historical-facts\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">10 Truths About the Stock Market<\/a> and how investors can apply them to make sense of the markets today. Check it out on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/the-average-return-that-never-comes-sam-ro-on-10\/id1490296778?i=1000727631543\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Apple Podcasts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/episode\/2R8nC6AiphmPELCJ4yBGvz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Spotify<\/a>, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OVgLvCa2fTI\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">YouTube<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p data-attrs=\"{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/profit-margins-expected-to-expand-2026?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=share&amp;action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}\" data-component-name=\"ButtonCreateButton\" class=\"button-wrapper\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/profit-margins-expected-to-expand-2026?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=share&amp;action=share\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"button primary\" target=\"_blank\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<p>There were several notable data points and macroeconomic developments since our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173016938\/review-of-the-macro-crosscurrents\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">last review<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p>\u2702\ufe0f Fed cuts rates. The Federal Reserve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20250917a.htm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">announced<\/a> its first interest rate cut since December 2024. On Wednesday, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate target range to 4% to 4.25%, down from 4.25% to 4.5%.<\/p>\n<p>From the Fed\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20250917a.htm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">policy statement<\/a>: \u201cRecent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>The committee raised its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcprojtabl20250917.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">projections<\/a> for GDP growth while lowering them for unemployment. It also signaled that more rate cuts would come this year and next.<\/p>\n<p>For more on what Fed policy could mean for markets, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173016938\/about-fed-rate-cuts-and-stocks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">About Fed rate cuts and stocks<\/a> \u2696\ufe0f<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udecd\ufe0f Shopping ticks higher. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/retail\/marts\/www\/marts_current.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Retail sales<\/a> increased 0.6% in August to a record $732 billion.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!qYIl!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37ec2ce5-9b7f-4813-b89d-04720a2e0557_904x450.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/37ec2ce5-9b7f-4813-b89d-04720a2e0557_904x.png\" width=\"904\" height=\"450\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/37ec2ce5-9b7f-4813-b89d-04720a2e0557_904x450.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:450,&quot;width&quot;:904,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:61450,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37ec2ce5-9b7f-4813-b89d-04720a2e0557_904x450.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: Census via <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=1MlTy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FRED<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Most categories saw growth.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcb3 Card spending data is holding up. From JPMorgan: \u201cAs of 12 Sep 2025, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 3.4% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 12 Sep 2025, our estimate of the US Census September control measure of retail sales m\/m is 0.19%.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!pIWK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c17e8aa-fcb6-4de2-bc96-39cafae07a52_809x455.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/8c17e8aa-fcb6-4de2-bc96-39cafae07a52_809x.jpeg\" width=\"809\" height=\"455\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/8c17e8aa-fcb6-4de2-bc96-39cafae07a52_809x455.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:455,&quot;width&quot;:809,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:128765,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c17e8aa-fcb6-4de2-bc96-39cafae07a52_809x455.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: JPMorgan)<\/p>\n<p>From BofA: \u201cTotal card spending per HH was up 1.5% y\/y in the week ending Sep 13, according to BAC aggregated credit &amp; debit card data. In our sectors, y\/y spending growth in entertainment saw the biggest rise since last week &amp; airlines saw the biggest decline. After strong Aug retail sales, BAC card data on spending looks stable in Sep, in line with our call for a consumer rebound.\u201c<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!WCTL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95d22eeb-a78a-42ff-944f-c6f69691f3e5_1158x1162.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/95d22eeb-a78a-42ff-944f-c6f69691f3e5_1158.png\" width=\"1158\" height=\"1162\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/95d22eeb-a78a-42ff-944f-c6f69691f3e5_1158x1162.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1162,&quot;width&quot;:1158,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:374019,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F95d22eeb-a78a-42ff-944f-c6f69691f3e5_1158x1162.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For discussion on how sales may be inflated due to tariffs, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/sales-pull-forward-frontrunning-tariffs\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">A BIG economic question right now<\/a> \ud83e\udd14<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcbc New unemployment claims fall, total ongoing claims remain elevated. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Initial claims for unemployment benefits<\/a> declined to 231,000 during the week ending Sept. 13, down from 264,000 the week prior. This metric remains at levels historically associated with economic growth.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!v7YK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc7041cd5-72ae-461d-8924-7ba7b8c8572b_887x450.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/c7041cd5-72ae-461d-8924-7ba7b8c8572b_887x.png\" width=\"887\" height=\"450\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/c7041cd5-72ae-461d-8924-7ba7b8c8572b_887x450.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:450,&quot;width&quot;:887,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:63812,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc7041cd5-72ae-461d-8924-7ba7b8c8572b_887x450.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: DOL via <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=1Mphy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FRED<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Insured unemployment, which captures those who continue to claim unemployment benefits, declined to 1.92 million during the week ending September 6. This metric is near its highest level since November 2021.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!mdXm!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52dfbd9a-ccb1-4b29-855c-dab3349519f5_887x450.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/52dfbd9a-ccb1-4b29-855c-dab3349519f5_887x.png\" width=\"887\" height=\"450\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/52dfbd9a-ccb1-4b29-855c-dab3349519f5_887x450.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:450,&quot;width&quot;:887,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:61245,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52dfbd9a-ccb1-4b29-855c-dab3349519f5_887x450.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: DOL via <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=1Mphq\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FRED<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Low initial claims confirm that layoff activity remains low. Elevated continued claims confirm hiring activity is weakening. This dynamic warrants close attention, as it reflects a deteriorating labor market.<\/p>\n<p>For more context, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/hiring-rate-falling-10-2024\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The hiring situation<\/a> \ud83e\udde9 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/jobs-report-june-2024-cooling\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The labor market is cooling<\/a> \ud83d\udcbc<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udee0\ufe0f Industrial activity ticks higher. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/g17\/Current\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Industrial production activity<\/a> in August increased 0.1% from the prior month&#8217;s levels. Manufacturing output rose 0.2%. From the Federal Reserve: \u201cWithin manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6% in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1%. The index for mining moved up 0.9%, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0%.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>\u26fd\ufe0f Gas prices tick higher. From <a href=\"https:\/\/gasprices.aaa.com\/woes-at-the-pump-for-west-coast-drivers\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">AAA<\/a>: \u201cPacific Northwest drivers, who already pay some of the highest gas prices in the country, saw their state averages surge this past week. A pipeline outage caused a spike in fuel prices in Oregon and Washington. Up until today, Washington was the state with the most expensive gas for several days, surpassing California, which is bracing for hikes of its own. Refinery maintenance this fall is expected to lead to decreased production and higher gas prices in the Golden State. Meanwhile, the national average for a gallon of regular went up a penny since last week to $3.20. Even though West Coast drivers are feeling pain at the pump, prices remain relatively low in the Plains and the South.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For more on energy prices, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/higher-oil-prices-impact\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Higher oil prices meant something different in the past<\/a> \ud83d\udee2\ufe0f<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfe0 Mortgage rates tick lower. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Freddie Mac<\/a>, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.26%, down from 6.35% last week: \u201cMortgage rates decreased yet again this week, prompting many homeowners to refinance. In fact, the share of mortgage applications that were refinances reached nearly 60%, the highest since January 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>There are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/housing\/hvs\/files\/currenthvspress.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">147.9 million housing units<\/a> in the U.S., of which 86.1 million are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/71328452\/home-prices-rise\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">owner-occupied<\/a> and about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/acs\/www\/about\/why-we-ask-each-question\/housing\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">39%<\/a> are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/78991720\/why-home-prices-havent-caused-the-cpi-report-to-go-haywire\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">mortgage-free<\/a>. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/67888394\/mortgage-rates-are-their-highest-in-years\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fixed-rate mortgages<\/a>, and most of those mortgages <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/67888394\/mortgage-rates-are-their-highest-in-years\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">have rates that were locked in<\/a> before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to the small weekly movements in home prices or mortgage rates.<\/p>\n<p>For more on mortgages and home prices, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/how-shelter-rent-oer-inflation-measured\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Why home prices and rents are creating all sorts of confusion about inflation<\/a> \ud83d\ude16<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfe0 Homebuilder sentiment remains in the dumps. From the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/news-and-economics\/press-releases\/2025\/09\/builder-confidence-steady-but-future-sales-expectations-hit-six-month-high\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">NAHB<\/a>: \u201cNAHB expects the Fed to cut the federal funds rate at their meeting this week, which will help lower interest rates for builder and developer loans. Moreover, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average is down 23 basis points over the past four weeks to 6.35%, per Freddie Mac. This is the lowest level since mid-October of last year and a positive sign for future housing demand.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd28 New home construction starts fall. Housing starts declined 8.5% in August to an annualized rate of 1.31 million units, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the Census Bureau<\/a>. Building permits ticked down 3.7% to an annualized rate of 1.31 million units.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\ude2c This is the stuff pros are worried about. From BofA\u2019s September Global Fund Manager Survey: \u201c26% of FMS investors view a 2nd wave of inflation as the biggest tail risk, followed by 24% saying &#8216;Fed loses independence &amp; US dollar debasement&#8217; is the biggest tail risk. Trade war risk is fading with just 12% of investors saying &#8216;trade war triggering global recession&#8217; is the biggest tail risk (down from #1 spot at 29% in August).\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!-8cX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbf1da3-d118-4dbe-90fd-82af70be569c_1300x786.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/dfbf1da3-d118-4dbe-90fd-82af70be569c_1300.png\" width=\"1300\" height=\"786\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/dfbf1da3-d118-4dbe-90fd-82af70be569c_1300x786.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:786,&quot;width&quot;:1300,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:107247,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbf1da3-d118-4dbe-90fd-82af70be569c_1300x786.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: BofA)<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!PDD6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff61d46a2-0b91-4071-9d66-621677ff10d8_1688x1746.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/f61d46a2-0b91-4071-9d66-621677ff10d8_1688.jpeg\" width=\"1456\" height=\"1506\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/f61d46a2-0b91-4071-9d66-621677ff10d8_1688x1746.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1506,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:317539,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173574516?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff61d46a2-0b91-4071-9d66-621677ff10d8_1688x1746.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: BofA)<\/p>\n<p>For more on risks, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/observations-about-stock-market-risks-and-uncertainty\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Three observations about uncertainty in the markets<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/observations-about-stock-market-risks-and-uncertainty\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> <\/a>\ud83d\ude1f and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/uncertainty-vs-certainty-in-markets\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Two times when uncertainty seemed low and confidence was high<\/a> \ud83c\udf08<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfe2 Offices remain relatively empty. From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kastle.com\/safety-wellness\/getting-america-back-to-work\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Kastle Systems<\/a>: \u201cPeak day office occupancy was 65.3% on Tuesday last week, up 5.6 points from the previous week, as workers returned to the office in record numbers in the first full week after the Labor Day holiday weekend. New York City and Washington, D.C. experienced post-pandemic record-high Tuesday occupancy, rising 10.7 points to 71.8% and 5.1 points to 64.1%, respectively. Occupancy increased every day in nearly every city, which is a similar pattern to previous years as the summer travel season ends. The average low was on Friday at 36.9%, up more than six points from last week.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For more on office occupancy, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/commercial-real-estate-office-vacancies\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">This stat about offices reminds us things are far from normal<\/a> \ud83c\udfe2<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8 Near-term GDP growth estimates are tracking positively. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow model<\/a> sees real GDP growth rising at a 3.3% rate in Q3.<\/p>\n<p>For more on GDP and the economy, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/hot-economic-charts-that-cooled\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">9 once-hot economic charts that cooled<\/a> \ud83d\udcc9 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/economic-growth-slowing-approaches-tipping-point\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">We&#8217;re at an economic tipping point<\/a> \u2696\ufe0f<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcb0 Stock buybacks are high, but the level is close to average. From S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices\u2019 Howard Silverblatt: \u201cQ2 2025 share repurchases were $234.6 billion, down 20.1% from Q1 2025\u2019s record $293.5 billion expenditure, and down 0.6% from Q2 2024\u2019s $235.9 billion. For the 12-month June 2025 period buybacks were $997.8 billion, up from $877.5 billion from the prior 12-month period; the 12-month peak was in June 2022 with $1.005 trillion.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBuybacks as a percentage of market value decreased to 0.447% from 0.575% in Q1 2025; the historical average (from Q1 1998) is 0.635%,\u201d Silverblatt said.<\/p>\n<p>For more on stock buybacks, read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173016938\/companies-are-waiting-longer-before-going-public\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Companies are waiting longer before going public<\/a> \ud83d\udc74\ud83c\udffc and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/normalize-numbers-stock-buybacks-q2-2024\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Eye-popping, headline-grabbing market stats often aren&#8217;t as extreme as they seem<\/a> \ud83e\udd26\ud83c\udffb\u200d\u2642\ufe0f<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udea8 The Trump administration\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/boycott-america-gdp-stock-market-negative-impact\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">pursuit of tariffs<\/a> is disrupting global trade, with significant implications for the U.S. economy, corporate earnings, and the stock market. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/economic-data-earnings-results-ambiguous\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Until we get more clarity<\/a>, here\u2019s where things stand:<\/p>\n<p>Earnings look bullish: The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, bolstered by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/morgan-stanley-2027-eps-estimate\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">expectations for years of earnings growth<\/a>. And earnings are the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/stock-market-tariffs-earnings-impact\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">most important driver of stock prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Demand is positive: Demand for goods and services remains <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/household-finances-consumer-spending-strength\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">positive<\/a>, supported by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/149247825\/consumer-and-business-finances-are-healthy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">healthy consumer and business balance sheets<\/a>. Job creation, although <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/jobs-report-june-2024-cooling\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cooling<\/a>, also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/168775729\/review-of-the-macro-crosscurrents\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">remains positive<\/a>, and the Federal Reserve \u2014 having <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/fed-chair-powell-jackson-hole-2024\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">resolved the inflation crisis<\/a> \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/federal-reserve-rate-cut-september-2024\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">shifted its focus toward supporting the labor market<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But growth is cooling: While the economy remains healthy, growth has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/hot-economic-charts-that-cooled\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">normalized<\/a> from much hotter levels earlier in the cycle. The economy is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/coiled-spring-economy-job-openings-normalize\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">less \u201ccoiled\u201d<\/a> these days as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/job-openings-july-2024-economic-tailwind-fades\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">major tailwinds like excess job openings<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/core-capex-orders-decline-april-2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">core capex orders<\/a> have faded. It has become <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/economic-growth-slowing-approaches-tipping-point\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">harder to argue<\/a> that growth is destiny.<\/p>\n<p>Actions speak louder than words: We are in an odd period, given that the hard economic data <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/economic-data-earnings-results-ambiguous\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">decoupled from the soft sentiment-oriented data<\/a>. Consumer and business sentiment has been relatively poor, even as tangible consumer and business activity continues to grow and trend at record levels. From an investor\u2019s perspective, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/140457648\/the-stock-market-hat\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">what matters<\/a> is that the hard economic data continues to hold up.<\/p>\n<p>Stocks are not the economy: There\u2019s a case to be made that the U.S. stock market could <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/bofa-2024-stock-market-outlook\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">outperform the U.S. economy<\/a> in the near term, thanks largely to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/profit-margins-expected-to-stay-high\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">positive operating leverage<\/a>. Since the pandemic, companies have aggressively adjusted their cost structures. This came with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/layoffs-for-profit-growth\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">strategic layoffs<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/136484060\/business-investment-inched-up\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">investment in new equipment<\/a>, including hardware <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/nvidia-earnings-q4-2023-confirm-ai-demand-boom\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">powered by AI<\/a>. These moves are resulting in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/watch-profit-margins-2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">positive operating leverage<\/a>, which means a modest amount of sales growth \u2014 in the cooling economy \u2014 is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/147122465\/businesses-may-be-enjoying-the-fruits-of-cost-restructuring\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">translating to robust earnings growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Mind the ever-present risks: Of course, we should not get complacent. There will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/always-risks-uncertainty-in-stock-market\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">always be risks to worry about<\/a>, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/us-presidents-stock-market-performance\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. political uncertainty<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/stock-market-geopolitical-events-israel-iran-oil\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">geopolitical turmoil<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/higher-oil-prices-impact\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">energy price volatility<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/weekly-macro-risk-considerations-cyber-terrorism\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cyber attacks<\/a>. There are also the dreaded <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/what-keeps-me-up-at-night-risks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">unknowns<\/a>. Any of these risks can flare up and spark short-term volatility in the markets.<\/p>\n<p>Investing is never a smooth ride: There\u2019s also the harsh reality that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/weekly-macro-stocks-recessions\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">economic recessions<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/stock-prices-earnings-long-term-trends\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">bear markets<\/a> are developments that all long-term investors <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/stock-market-investing-volatility-gains\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">should expect<\/a> as they build wealth in the markets. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/stock-market-drawdowns-bull-markets\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Always keep your stock market seat belts fastened<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Think long-term: For now, there\u2019s no reason to believe there\u2019ll be a challenge that the economy and the markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-letter-2024\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">won\u2019t be able to overcome<\/a> over time. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/42137695\/the-long-game-is-undefeated\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The long game remains undefeated<\/a>, and it\u2019s a streak that long-term investors can expect to continue.<\/p>\n<p>For more on how the macro story is evolving, check out the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/173016938\/review-of-the-macro-crosscurrents\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">previous review of the macro crosscurrents. \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a roundup of some of TKer\u2019s most talked-about paid and free newsletters about the stock market. All of the headlines are hyperlinked to the archived pieces.<\/p>\n<p>The stock market can be an intimidating place: It\u2019s real money on the line, there\u2019s an overwhelming amount of information, and people have lost fortunes in it very quickly. But it\u2019s also a place where thoughtful investors have long accumulated a lot of wealth. The primary difference between those two outlooks is related to misconceptions about the stock market that can lead people to make poor investment decisions.<\/p>\n<p>Passive investing is a concept usually associated with buying and holding a fund that tracks an index. And no passive investment strategy has attracted as much attention as buying an S&amp;P 500 index fund. However, the S&amp;P 500 \u2014 an index of 500 of the largest U.S. companies \u2014 is anything but a static set of 500 stocks.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!I-6J!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F857fed29-8ea3-4d96-837b-047ee0ea74cc_2344x1438.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/857fed29-8ea3-4d96-837b-047ee0ea74cc_2344.jpeg\" width=\"1456\" height=\"893\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/857fed29-8ea3-4d96-837b-047ee0ea74cc_2344x1438.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:893,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones indices via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/sp-500-turnover-rebalancing\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>For investors, anything you can ever learn about a company matters only if it also tells you something about earnings.  That\u2019s because long-term moves in a stock can ultimately be explained by the underlying company\u2019s earnings, expectations for earnings, and uncertainty about those expectations for earnings. Over time, the relationship between stock prices and earnings has a very tight statistical relationship.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!1knK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe912a4c2-ac88-43a7-844e-ec5a925bf13e_1200x675.jpeg\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/e912a4c2-ac88-.jpeg\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/e912a4c2-ac88-43a7-844e-ec5a925bf13e_1200x675.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:675,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: Fidelity via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/chart-earnings-drive-stock-prices\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Investors should always be mentally prepared for some big sell-offs in the stock market. It\u2019s part of the deal when you invest in an asset class that is sensitive to the constant flow of good and bad news. Since 1950, the S&amp;P 500 has seen an average annual max drawdown (i.e., the biggest intra-year sell-off) of 14%.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!YhIx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8e6e678-0324-490e-be2b-215c361718fc_1986x1184.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/f8e6e678-0324-490e-be2b-215c361718fc_1986.jpeg\" width=\"1456\" height=\"868\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/f8e6e678-0324-490e-be2b-215c361718fc_1986x1184.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:868,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:282540,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/167100973?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8e6e678-0324-490e-be2b-215c361718fc_1986x1184.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: JPMorgan)<\/p>\n<p>Every recession in history was different. And the range of stock performance around them varied greatly. There are two things worth noting. First, recessions have always been accompanied by a significant drawdown in stock prices. Second, the stock market bottomed and inflected upward long before recessions ended.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!0sfB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fad6a6703-39e1-459a-9f06-f3a6be4f266f_2228x1710.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/ad6a6703-39e1-459a-9f06-f3a6be4f266f_2228.png\" width=\"1456\" height=\"1117\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/ad6a6703-39e1-459a-9f06-f3a6be4f266f_2228x1710.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1117,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/160340172?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstackcdn.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Ff_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fad6a6703-39e1-459a-9f06-f3a6be4f266f_2228x1710.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: Goldman Sachs via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/stock-market-history-with-recessions\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Since 1928, the S&amp;P 500 generated a positive total return more than 89% of the time over all five-year periods. Those are pretty good odds. When you extend the timeframe to 20 years, you\u2019ll see that there\u2019s never been a period where the S&amp;P 500 didn\u2019t generate a positive return.<\/p>\n<p>While a strong dollar may be great news for Americans vacationing abroad and U.S. businesses importing goods from overseas, it\u2019s a headwind for multinational U.S.-based corporations doing business in non-U.S. markets.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!d1Gy!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31db8bd1-8e99-4554-af75-60fc87997876_904x520.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/31db8bd1-8e99-.jpeg\" width=\"904\" height=\"520\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/31db8bd1-8e99-4554-af75-60fc87997876_904x520.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:520,&quot;width&quot;:904,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: FactSet via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/us-dollar-strength-earnings-headwind\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>The stock market sorta reflects the economy. But also, not really. The S&amp;P 500 is more about the manufacture and sale of goods. U.S. GDP is more about providing services.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!qn3V!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f534010-295e-475d-8e09-bcbe96b8f990_1000x614.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/5f534010-295e-.png\" width=\"1000\" height=\"614\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/5f534010-295e-475d-8e09-bcbe96b8f990_1000x614.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:614,&quot;width&quot;:1000,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: BlackRock via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/sp500-stock-market-observations\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>\u2026you don&#8217;t want to buy them when earnings are great, because what are they doing when their earnings are great? They go out and expand capacity. Three or four years later, there&#8217;s overcapacity and they&#8217;re losing money. What about when they&#8217;re losing money? Well, then they\u2019ve stopped building capacity. So three or four years later, capacity will have shrunk and their profit margins will be way up. So, you always have to sort of imagine the world the way it&#8217;s going to be in 18 to 24 months as opposed to now. If you buy it now, you&#8217;re buying into every single fad every single moment. Whereas if you envision the future, you&#8217;re trying to imagine how that might be reflected differently in security prices.<\/p>\n<p>Some event will come out of left field, and the market will go down, or the market will go up. Volatility will occur. Markets will continue to have these ups and downs. \u2026 Basic corporate profits have grown about 8% a year historically. So, corporate profits double about every nine years. The stock market ought to double about every nine years\u2026 The next 500 points, the next 600 points \u2014 I don\u2019t know which way they\u2019ll go\u2026 They\u2019ll double again in eight or nine years after that. Because profits go up 8% a year, and stocks will follow. That&#8217;s all there is to it.<\/p>\n<p>Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac\u2019s talents didn\u2019t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, \u201cI can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.\u201d If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.<\/p>\n<p>According to S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices (SPDJI), 65% of U.S. large-cap equity fund managers underperformed the S&amp;P 500 in 2024. As you stretch the time horizon, the numbers get even more dismal. Over a three-year period, 85% underperformed. Over a 10-year period, 90% underperformed. And over a 20-year period, 92% underperformed. This 2023 performance follows 14 consecutive years in which the majority of fund managers in this category have lagged the index.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!YIqH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffbc3827f-bd9b-4a01-9e3d-10a6af7cc0f8_2290x1448.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/fbc3827f-bd9b-4a01-9e3d-10a6af7cc0f8_2290.png\" width=\"1456\" height=\"921\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/fbc3827f-bd9b-4a01-9e3d-10a6af7cc0f8_2290x1448.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:921,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/158702419?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstackcdn.com%2Fimage%2Ffetch%2Ff_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep%2Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Ffbc3827f-bd9b-4a01-9e3d-10a6af7cc0f8_2290x1448.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: SPDJI via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/spiva-2024-active-managers-underperform-benchmark\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Even if you are a fund manager who generated industry-leading returns in one year, history says it\u2019s an almost insurmountable task to stay on top consistently in subsequent years. According to S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, just 4.21% of all U.S. equity funds in the top half of performance during the first year were able to remain in the top during the four subsequent years. Only 2.42% of U.S. large-cap funds remained in the top half<\/p>\n<p>SPDJI\u2019s report also considered fund performance relative to their benchmarks over the past three years. Of 738 U.S. large-cap equity funds tracked by SPDJI, 50.68% beat the S&amp;P 500 in 2022. Just 5.08% beat the S&amp;P in the two years ending 2023. And only 2.14% of the funds beat the index over the three years ending in 2024.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!AdTd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F641908f2-5362-442e-8936-05120560dbf3_793x321.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/641908f2-5362-442e-8936-05120560dbf3_793x.png\" width=\"793\" height=\"321\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/641908f2-5362-442e-8936-05120560dbf3_793x321.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:321,&quot;width&quot;:793,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:76326,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.tker.co\/i\/163136173?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F641908f2-5362-442e-8936-05120560dbf3_793x321.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a> Very few funds consistently beat their benchmarks over extended periods. (Source: SPDJI via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/spiva-persistence-2024-past-performance-no-guarantee\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Picking stocks in an attempt to beat market averages is an incredibly challenging and sometimes money-losing effort. Most professional stock pickers aren\u2019t able to do this consistently. One of the reasons for this is that most stocks don\u2019t deliver above-average returns. According to S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, only 24% of the stocks in the S&amp;P 500 outperformed the average stock\u2019s return from 2000 to 2022. Over this period, the average return on an S&amp;P 500 stock was 390%, while the median stock rose by just 93%.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!7CbT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00bc2918-8e96-4753-af4b-8e44d6315817_1400x745.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/00bc2918-8e96-4753-af4b-8e44d6315817_1400.jpeg\" width=\"1400\" height=\"745\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/00bc2918-8e96-4753-af4b-8e44d6315817_1400x745.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:745,&quot;width&quot;:1400,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a>(Source: SPDJI via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tker.co\/p\/most-sp500-constituents-underperform\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TKer<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\ud83d\udcc8The stock market rallied to all-time highs, with the S&amp;P 500 setting an intraday high of 6,671.82 and&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34557,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[72,61,60,123],"class_list":{"0":"post-34556","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ie","10":"tag-ireland","11":"tag-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}