Some brands are experimenting with smaller portions, snack-sized meals, and portion-controlled packaging, while consciously packing in nutrition. GLP-1 is already driving increased demand for fiber-rich options<\/a>. Meanwhile, there is also a rise in protein-enriched functional beverage innovation<\/a>, which is deliberately targeting GLP-1 users.<\/p>\n For food manufacturers and restaurants, the focus is now on delivering flavor, texture, and nutrition in fewer bites.<\/p>\n ING report: Key highlights<\/p>\n Besides the expected increase in GLP-1 adoption, ING expects the global market to grow by 20% over the next two years, driven by increased competition, lower prices, and wider government coverage.<\/p>\n There is a limited current impact, but categories like snacks, confectionery, and alcohol are already feeling early pressure.<\/p>\n ING has put forward four scenarios for 2030. In the most transformative projection, GLP-1 adoption could reduce total calorie intake in Europe by 2.5\u20133.5% by 2030.<\/p>\n Accurately measuring the data around how many people are using drugs like Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Wegovy injections, either as part of type 2 diabetes treatment or as a weight loss aid that has proven results, is virtually impossible at this stage, as many people use private prescriptions.\u00a0<\/p>\n GLP-1: Transformative or overhyped?<\/p>\n ING raises a legitimate question in its report: are the effects of GLP-1 on food production being overhyped?<\/p>\n Thijs Geijer, senior sector economist across Food & Agri at ING, tells Food Ingredients First that it\u2019s \u201cstill early days.\u201d ING\u2019s estimate of 0.25% reduction in calorie demand shows that GLP-1 use\u2019s impact on food production is still very small.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cTo become materially significant, the use of GLP-1s needs to continue its steep growth trajectory. Such growth depends on lower prices, successful introduction of more drugs (including pills) and broader reimbursement for more patients,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n \u201cCompanies report that they\u2019re seeing several changes among users, including preference for smaller portions, higher nutrient density, and products with less sugar. Clearly, those trends were already there, but GLP-1s reinforce them.\u201d<\/p>\n Changes in grocery spending<\/p>\n The ING report also cites research from another report<\/a> \u2014 \u201cThe No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Demand\u201d \u2014 which examines how consumers modify their food purchases after adopting appetite-suppressing GLP-1s.<\/p>\n It documents the prevalence, motivations, and demographic patterns of GLP-1 adoption, and shows that US households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by 5.3% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by 8.2%.<\/p>\n Key points include a 10% reduction in spending on chips and savory snacks, a 5% reduction in sweet bakery, cheese, and meat, and up to a 2.5% reduction in alcohol. Meanwhile, it highlights a 0\u2060\u20132.5% increase in fresh fruit and vegetables.<\/p>\n F&B firms have time to adapt to GLP-1s<\/p>\n The ING report highlights another key point: companies have time to prepare for the increasing adoption of GLP-1s, as the industry closely monitors their impact on food choices and consumer demands in the coming years.\u00a0<\/p>\n PepsiCo, Mondel\u0113z, Hershey, and Danone have all highlighted in recent earnings calls that innovation is an important part of their GLP-1 adaptation strategy. Meanwhile, Nestl\u00e9 targets GLP-1 users with its protein-rich Vital Pursuit<\/a> product line.<\/p>\n Product innovation and reformulation are two aspects ING recommends food producers and brands consider in relation to how they will respond to a scenario where there will be a notable increase in GLP\u2060-1 adoption.\u00a0<\/p>\n Another recommendation is for companies to consider future marketing strategies that focus on consumers who are not using GLP-1s (which is most of the population in any scenario), while considering how to re-engage with consumers as soon as they come off GLP-1s. As ING points out, \u201cafter all, the temptations are still there, making it hard for consumers to sustain any changes in lifestyle and consumption habits.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\nDespite reducing individual calorie intake, GLP-1 drugs have a minimal overall impact on food demand in 2026, making them a limited concern for the F&B industry.<\/p>\n
The rise in GLP-1 use is leading to consumers changing some purchasing decisions and reducing their grocery spend. This is particularly highlighted in indulgent categories like confectionery and snacks.<\/p>\n