{"id":379940,"date":"2026-04-03T12:28:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-03T12:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/379940\/"},"modified":"2026-04-03T12:28:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T12:28:11","slug":"four-ways-the-iran-war-may-affect-your-money-bills-and-airfares-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/379940\/","title":{"rendered":"Four ways the Iran war may affect your money, bills and airfares \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cWe\u2019ve had one shock after the other in recent years,\u201d Taoiseach Miche\u00e1l Martin<\/a> said this week, listing off Brexit, Covid, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Trump\u2019s tariffs. <\/p>\n

\u201cAnd now we have this war, and it\u2019s been endless,\u201d he continued, echoing the thoughts of everyone forced \u2013 for the fifth time in a decade \u2013 to deal with a once-in-a-generation crisis.<\/p>\n

The war in the Middle East<\/a> threatens so many aspects of our lives, from food prices and fertiliser to home heating and holidays, that it\u2019s hard to keep up.<\/p>\n

What is clear is the manner in which prices are soaring and supply lines are threatened is starting to make the earlier crises, referred to by Martin, seem like a macabre warm-up act. <\/p>\n

Fuel <\/p>\n

The most immediate consequence of the conflict has been felt on fuel forecourts, which have been quietly documenting the severity of the global energy crisis since the start of March.<\/p>\n

And although the price displays have made for grim reading, things are only likely to get worse. <\/p>\n

On March 3rd \u2013 four days after the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran \u2013 one Circle K fuel station in the midlands was selling petrol and diesel for \u20ac1.80 a litre \u2013 eight cent higher than in February. The price of petrol jumped by 3 cent to \u20ac1.83 by March 6th, with diesel climbing 6 cent to \u20ac1.86. <\/p>\n

Just over two weeks later \u2013 and hours before cuts in excise duty of between 15 and 20 cent took effect \u2013 the price of petrol on that midlands forecourt jumped to \u20ac1.90, while diesel cost \u20ac2.19.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Jet fuel disruption could hit summer travel plansOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

Prices fell back after the excise cut: 14 cent for diesel and 5 cent for petrol.<\/p>\n

But by this week, the world\u2019s energy markets had caused the diesel to climb again to \u20ac2.10, while petrol returned to its previous high of \u20ac1.90. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s tough to know,\u201d says Daragh Cassidy of price comparison and switching website bonkers.ie when asked what happens next. <\/p>\n

\u201cPrice remains so volatile. And of course, Trump could simply seek to end the war tomorrow, which would cause prices to plummet, or he could escalate things even further, in which case, you could see oil reach a high of $150 a barrel or more.\u201d<\/p>\n

And what would happen if oil climbed from its current levels of between $100 (\u20ac86.7) and $115 (\u20ac99.6) a barrel? <\/p>\n

Carzone.ie\u2019s motoring analyst Conor Faughnan says if oil reaches $150 a barrel \u201cthen petrol will cost Irish motorists \u20ac2.38 and diesel will be \u20ac2.56 and if crude goes to $200, petrol would be \u20ac2.74 and diesel would be \u20ac2.92\u201d.<\/p>\n

Those figures include the emergency excise duty reduction, he says. \u201cAnd if that were to go back on, it would see a litre of diesel costing more than \u20ac3.\u201d<\/p>\n

He stresses he is not suggesting such worst-case scenarios will happen but notes that even best-case scenarios are not great for Irish consumers. <\/p>\n

\"PetrolPetrol priced at \u20ac1.839 per litre and diesel \u20ac1.839 per litre at the Circle K in Cabra, Dublin on March 6th. Photograph: Chris Maddaloni\/The Irish Times <\/p>\n

\u201cWe are faced with a rather grim prospect of completely normalising fuel costing what it does now with all the ripple effects through the economy.\u201d <\/p>\n

He notes that the oil crisis of the 1970s led to queues on Irish forecourts and spiralling prices becoming a new normal, causing \u201ca decade and a half of crisis of one sort or another\u201d.<\/p>\n

Home heating<\/p>\n

Faughnan doesn\u2019t have to look to the 1970s for an example of a new normal, as there\u2019s evidence of it happening right now. <\/p>\n

At the start of the crisis five weeks ago, there was an intense focus on the spike in home-heating oil prices and the shock at how quickly an average price of \u20ac498 for 500 litres climbed to more than \u20ac700. Today, 500 litres costs an average of \u20ac868, an increase of 75 per cent in just five weeks.<\/p>\n

Domestic energy\"IrishIrish households could be worse off by at least \u20ac600 annually if wholesale gas prices remain at current levels. Photograph: Getty Images <\/p>\n

We have yet to see any price increases from the State\u2019s domestic energy suppliers but price shocks look inevitable, though the scale of the price rises depend on what happens next in the Middle East. <\/p>\n

\u201cThere is also the possibility that gas bills will rise in the second half of the year,\u201d Cassidy says.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough wholesale gas prices have fallen from their recent highs, they\u2019re still up by around 30 to 40 per cent compared to this time last year. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf this remains the case, you could be looking at a hike in bills of maybe 10 to 20 per cent later in the year.\u201d <\/p>\n

Such hikes will leave households worse off by at least \u20ac600 annually. <\/p>\n

Air travel <\/p>\n

The latest wave of worry is what impact the crisis will have on summer travel plans, with Ryanair chief executive Michael O\u2019Leary<\/a> issuing a stark warning on Wednesday: \u201cThe fuel companies are happy there won\u2019t be any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June.\u201d<\/p>\n

O\u2019Leary is not alone in echoing concerns. <\/p>\n

\"RyanairRyanair chief executive Michael O\u2019Leary issued a stark warning about the impact of fuel supply on air travel. Photograph: Will Meakin-Durrant\/PA Wire <\/p>\n

Kevin McPartlan, of Fuels for Ireland, says : \u201cSupplies into Ireland are looking okay up to the end of May, which is as far as the outlook extends.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cEven 10 days ago, jet fuel was a key concern because global refining has a preponderance of manufacturing in the Middle East and jet fuel is the canary in the coal mine,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut in response a lot of refineries around the world have tweaked their operations to produce more jet fuel and less diesel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Eoghan Corry, travel writer and owner of the TravelExtra trade magazine, says \u201cshortages are already happening in Asia\u201d but Europe is well supplied \u2013 for now. <\/p>\n

If supply becomes an issue, there could be, he says, a percentage of the overall flights on an itinerary cancelled, with \u201cthe fat routes\u201d \u2013 routes served by multiple flights every day \u2013 targeted first. <\/p>\n

\u201cThat means if they start cutting flights from certain routes, like Malaga for example, they would just stop taking bookings once five flights are full whereas in the past they might have had eight flights a day,\u201d says Corry.<\/p>\n

\"MichaelMichael O’Leary: ‘If the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June.’ Photograph: Elias Rom\/ Belga Mag\/ \/ AFP via Getty Images <\/p>\n

He says fuel price spikes in the past have led to fuel surcharges being applied after bookings and this might happen again in the current crisis. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe have never seen Ryanair do that but it happened with tour operators and some legacy carriers, with \u20ac20 per person or thereabouts added to the price of holidays and flights already booked. That might be a worst-case scenario,\u201d says Corry.<\/p>\n

He does not believe there will be a huge amount of upheaval in the months ahead, with the markets pricing in a degree of stability by the summer. <\/p>\n

\u201cAsian countries and their airlines will be impacted first and the impact for Europe is way down the line,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

He says people with flights booked have no choice but to \u201csit tight\u201d, while those waiting to book should do so sooner rather than later as multiple pressure points could potentially drive up prices in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Irish consumers face rising costs as war in Iran threatens to escalateOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

The good news?<\/p>\n

The future markets are pricing in some stability by the summer and the European Commission<\/a> has played down energy supply concerns.<\/p>\n

As of the middle of this week, Irish suppliers were confident about the flow covering the next two months not least because Ireland sources about 50 per cent of its refined fuel from Valero, which has the US as its main refining base.<\/p>\n

The next largest supplier to Ireland is Trafigua, a huge European player followed by Circle K which also has a big influence in the marketplace. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cWe\u2019ve had one shock after the other in recent years,\u201d Taoiseach Miche\u00e1l Martin said this week, listing off…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":379941,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[72,943,5485,631,61,11829,60,150432,1843,6000,1899],"class_list":{"0":"post-379940","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-cost-of-living","10":"tag-energy-costs","11":"tag-for-you","12":"tag-ie","13":"tag-iran","14":"tag-ireland","15":"tag-israel-iran-conflict","16":"tag-micheal-martin","17":"tag-oil","18":"tag-ryanair"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/379940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=379940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/379940\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/379941"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=379940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=379940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=379940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}