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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team<\/a> and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.<\/p>\n Poland\u2019s economy is 42% larger than it would be if the country had not joined the European Union, according to new analysis<\/a> by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), a public think tank.<\/p>\n Its figures come amid growing political debate in Poland about the possibility of leaving the EU. So-called \u201cPolexit\u201d seemed unthinkable until recently, but now has the support of up to a quarter of society in some polls.<\/p>\n Wi\u0119cej na \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/t.co\/fgEzrKcgVq<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/neUJGCNh8O<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny (@PIE_NET_PL) April 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n In its analysis, PIE ran a series of calculations using around 400 models of a \u201chypothetical Poland\u201d that did or did not join the EU in 2004, looking at how its economy, measured in real GDP per capita in constant US dollar terms, would have developed up to 2024 in various scenarios.<\/p>\n In all cases, Poland benefited by joining, with a worst-case estimate that its economy was 22% larger thanks to being in the EU and a best-case scenario of 61%. The average gain was 42%.<\/p>\n The findings show that \u201cour estimate of the gains from joining the EU is not statistical noise resulting from the inclusion of a particular variable, but rather a systematic effect\u201d, write PIE\u2019s analysts.<\/p>\n They say that Poland\u2019s economic gains from EU membership \u201cstem largely from the benefits of joining the European single market, which facilitated trade, international investment, and improvements in institutional quality\u201d.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The institute published similar findings in 2024<\/a>, when Poland was marking the 20th anniversary of accession to the EU. It found that Poland\u2019s GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) was 40% higher in 2022 than if it had not joined the bloc.<\/p>\n However, their latest analysis did not use PPP, which takes into account differences in the cost of living in each country, as PIE\u2019s economists felt that using real GDP in constant dollar terms \u201cbetter captures Poland\u2019s international economic strength\u201d.<\/p>\n In those terms, Poland\u2019s GDP was last year estimated to have surpassed $1 trillion<\/a> for the first time. PIE notes, however, that the estimated economic gains for Poland from EU membership are similar whether calculated with or without PPP.<\/p>\n Poland is this year joining the world’s 20 largest economies, new IMF data show.<\/p>\n Its GDP has risen to over $1 trillion, meaning that it has passed Switzerland to take 20th spot https:\/\/t.co\/JnuAQ3OCp0<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) October 15, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Despite evidence of the positive impact of EU membership on Poland\u2019s economy, there has recently been growing talk of a potential \u201cPolexit\u201d from the bloc.<\/p>\n In December, an opinion poll indicated<\/a> that 25% of Poles support leaving the EU, with 66% opposed to the idea. Among supporters of the right-wing and far-right opposition, 43% favoured Polexit while 44% were against it.<\/p>\n Another poll published last month by state pollster CBOS found that 60% of Poles believe EU membership brings more benefits and costs, while 21% hold the opposite view.<\/p>\n A quarter of Poles now favour leaving the EU, a much higher figure than before, according to a new poll.<\/p>\n Among supporters of the right-wing opposition, 43% now favour “Polexit” while 44% want to remain in the EU https:\/\/t.co\/UHyHDwygnN<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) December 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n The current pro-EU government, led by former European Council President Donald Tusk, has accused the opposition of pushing Poland towards the EU exit door.<\/p>\n \u201cPolexit is a real threat today,\u201d wrote Tusk last month. \u201cIt would be a catastrophe for Poland. I will do everything to stop them.\u201d<\/p>\n However, the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), which is the largest opposition party, has insisted that it wants to reform, not leave, the EU. It says it wants the bloc to return to a focus on trade and to stop interfering in issues such as climate, migration and social policy.<\/p>\n The far-right Confederation (Konfederacja), which is the other main opposition group, is even more eurosceptic, though has not openly called for Polexit. The radical-right Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), which has seen growing support in polls<\/a>, supports leaving the EU.<\/p>\n The opposition PiS party has called for Poland to leave the EU’s Emissions Trading System, which it says makes Poles a “cash machine for absurd leftist climate policy”.<\/p>\n But the government warns that the only way to leave ETS is to exit the EU entirely https:\/\/t.co\/mRRBH09uAc<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) March 16, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Poland has been one of\u00a0Europe\u2019s fastest-growing economies in recent decades<\/a>. It was the only EU member state to avoid recession during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis and remained among the stronger performers during the COVID-19 pandemic<\/a>.<\/p>\n In 2025, Poland recorded GDP growth of 3.6%, the fourth-highest rate in the EU, behind Ireland (12.3%), Malta (4.0%) and Cyprus (3.8%), according to Eurostat. Ireland\u2019s growth figure, however, is widely seen as distorted by the activities of multinational companies, while Malta and Cyprus both have relatively small economies.<\/p>\n Recent data from Eurostat<\/a> also show that Poland has steadily narrowed the wealth gap with the rest of the EU, reaching 81% of the EU average GDP per capita (adjusted for cost of living) in 2025, the closest it has ever been.<\/p>\n Poland\u2019s economy has moved closer than ever to the EU average, new @EU_Eurostat<\/a> data show.<\/p>\n Its GDP per capita, adjusted for cost of living, reached 81% of the EU average in 2025. That is Poland’s highest ever figure, and up from 44% three decades ago https:\/\/t.co\/DCTyps6uDT<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) March 26, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n \u200b
Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team<\/a> and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.<\/p>\n
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