![\"Oil](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/00242f1d-614.jpg\"\/)
\nChanges in oil prices in 2026. Source: LSEG<\/p>\n
With a sudden drop in the price of oil and stock markets surging, on the surface, the ceasefire looks like good news.<\/p>\n
What’s less positive is that it’s resting on the foundations of a fragile agreement, with hostilities in Lebanon continuing, and markets are cautious that the US-Iran agreement could collapse at any moment.<\/p>\n
With fuel protests blocking many critical roads around Ireland, the question is what will the ceasefire mean for consumers and businesses here?<\/p>\n
Generally, it takes two to three weeks before changes in oil prices materialise at the pumps.<\/p>\n
So, the fall in the cost of brent crude would need to hold for a period before it could be felt by motorists, farmers and hauliers.<\/p>\n
This afternoon, prices are around $94 a barrel, which is a drop of 13% since the market closed at $109 last night.<\/p>\n
Oil prices peaked this year at $118 on 31 March.<\/p>\n
Bear in mind, it was $60 at the beginning of 2026 and $70 before the war began on 28 February.<\/p>\n
\nChanges in oil prices in 2026. Source: LSEG<\/p>\n
Many stations are currently charging around \u20ac1.90 for unleaded and \u20ac2.10 for diesel. That compares with \u20ac1.73 for unleaded and \u20ac1.72 for diesel in February.<\/p>\n
There is a long way to go before oil prices fall to the levels they were at before the war broke out.<\/p>\n
One of the most significant immediate effects for consumers is the enormous increase in home heating oil, which rose from \u20ac500 for 500 litres before the conflict to \u20ac900 today.<\/p>\n
Consumers will be anxiously hoping the fuel will fall following the drop in oil prices.<\/p>\n
Another issue for many householders will be what will happen to the price of gas.<\/p>\n
European natural gas futures doubled from \u20ac30 to \u20ac60 per megawatt hour due to the conflict and are now trading at \u20ac51.<\/p>\n
This is critically important because it also sets a price for the generation of electricity.<\/p>\n
Generally, Irish gas and electricity retailers book a price at which to buy supplies 18 months in advance.<\/p>\n
But what happens on the wholesale market ultimately filters through to the retail level.<\/p>\n
So far, there have not been significant price increases from suppliers in Ireland, but that could change by the autumn unless there is a significant drop in wholesale costs.<\/p>\n
That would be a big issue this winter and would result in more pressure on disposable incomes.<\/p>\n
And then there is the aftermath of the conflict: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, fixing the damage to energy infrastructure, and restocking supplies.<\/p>\n
There is concern that there could be a shortage of aviation fuel that could affect Ireland, which is critically important as an island nation.<\/p>\n
CEO of International Air Transport Association and former Aer Lingus boss Willie Walsh said: “Even if the Strait was to reopen and remain open it would still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be.”<\/p>\n
International Energy Agency CEO Fatih Birol said there would be disruption to European air travel from the middle of next month if the Strait is not fully reopened.<\/p>\n
EY Ireland Partner Aidan Meagher said: “The conflict has resulted in unprecedented disruption to energy markets, shipping routes and global supply chains, and these effects will take significant time to unwind, even if the ceasefire holds.”<\/p>\n
All of the higher fuel costs have been feeding through to inflation.<\/p>\n
Last week, the Central Statistics Office estimated the rate of inflation would be 3.6% this month.<\/p>\n
Yesterday, Department of Finance Chief Economist John McCarthy said that “all roads lead to higher inflation and slower growth”.<\/p>\n
The ceasefire is a welcome piece of good news during a gloomy period. But there is a very long way to go before prices for consumers and businesses can return to pre-war levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With a sudden drop in the price of oil and stock markets surging, on the surface, the ceasefire…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":332362,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[72,61,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-388481","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ie","10":"tag-ireland"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/388481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=388481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/388481\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/332362"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=388481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=388481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=388481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}