{"id":391023,"date":"2026-04-10T04:10:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T04:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/391023\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T04:10:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T04:10:08","slug":"as-humans-return-to-the-moon-which-of-these-4-futures-will-we-choose","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/391023\/","title":{"rendered":"as humans return to the Moon, which of these 4 futures will we choose?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The four Artemis II astronauts who looped around the Moon<\/a> this week are expected to splash down soon. NASA\u2019s grand mission spells a return to human deep-space travel, with renewed interest in building a long-term Moon base<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The images captured by the crew<\/a> are spectacular, offering a view from the far side of the Moon with Earth hovering low on the horizon.<\/p>\n

They are another reminder of technical achievement and human ambition. But in the background, decisions about what happens next and who benefits are already taking shape<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While there have always been legal tensions around ownership, access and control of space, in 2026 they no longer seem like abstract concepts.<\/p>\n

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty<\/a> declares space \u201cthe province of all mankind\u201d, barring countries from claiming ownership. Yet newer frameworks like the United States\u2019 Artemis Accords<\/a> introduce concepts such as exclusive \u201csafety zones\u201d around lunar activities, which could include mining of water or helium-3<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Space law expert Cassandra Steer views this as an example of the US \u201ctrying to carve out a loophole<\/a>\u201d. Legal scholar Michael Byers and space archaeologist Alice Gorman further note<\/a> that even well-intentioned mechanisms can become tools for asserting control<\/a> in a domain that is meant to remain shared.<\/p>\n

This tension between cooperation and competition, shared benefit and private gain, is neither accidental nor new. It reflects fundamentally different ways of imagining the future of space.<\/p>\n

So, is this new lunar era going to be one marked by countries\u2019 collective stewardship<\/a> of what lies beyond Earth \u2013 or yet another space race?<\/p>\n

4 futures for the final frontier<\/p>\n

Our latest research<\/a> charts these competing visions for space across four different trajectories.<\/p>\n

Some countries treat space as a frontier to be claimed and exploited, echoing earlier eras of terrestrial expansion. Others see it as a resource to fuel economic growth on Earth, prioritising rapid development over long-term sustainability. <\/p>\n

A third vision imagines space as an escape hatch: a place to build new societies as Earth becomes less habitable. And finally, a smaller but emerging perspective views Earth and space as strongly interconnected, requiring stewardship across both domains.<\/p>\n

These scenarios<\/a> are already playing out in current policy and practice.<\/p>\n

Consider the growing commercial presence in orbit. Satellites now number in the tens of thousands<\/a>, with around two-thirds of them<\/a> owned by SpaceX and hundreds of thousands more planned<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The result is orbital congestion and a creeping \u201ctragedy of the commons<\/a>\u201d, where individual actors maximise short-term gain at the expense of the environment. Orbital debris, including more than one million fragments larger than a centimetre<\/a>, threatens long-term access to space itself.<\/p>\n

At the same time, geopolitical competition is intensifying.<\/p>\n

Artemis II might be framed as an international mission, but it also reflects strategic positioning \u2013 particularly as major powers like the US and China race towards their lunar ambitions.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Lunar ambition: the Artemis II flight control team in the Mission Control Center at NASA\u2019s Johnson Space Center.
\n NASA<\/a><\/p>\n

A sense of possibility<\/p>\n

Within this increasingly contested landscape, Indigenous worldviews offer a fundamentally different way of imagining space<\/a>: not as a frontier apart from Earth, but as part of a shared living system.<\/p>\n

Our research, using a method known as \u201ccausal layered analysis<\/a>\u201d developed by Pakistani-born Australian political scientist Sohail Inayatullah, shows these tensions reflect deeper competing assumptions about what space is for. <\/p>\n

Depending on who is making the rules, it becomes either a marketplace, a lifeline, a refuge or an ecosystem.<\/p>\n

Artemis II brings those differences into sharp relief. The decisions being made now about regulation, access and governance will shape the future of space activity for decades.<\/p>\n

We argue for a shift towards an \u201cEarth-space sustainability<\/a>\u201d model, one that treats Earth and space as interconnected rather than separate domains.<\/p>\n

That means setting shared sustainability goals and involving Indigenous peoples in co-governance, bringing values of reciprocity, shared responsibility and long-term stewardship into decision making.<\/p>\n

These principles need to be embedded in institutions as well as rhetoric.<\/p>\n

Co-governance frameworks<\/a> that bring together governments, industry and Indigenous communities \u2013 alongside enforceable standards and tools such as the Space Sustainability Rating<\/a> \u2013 offer one path towards more responsible stewardship.<\/p>\n

This is not the easiest route for countries to take. It challenges powerful economic incentives and geopolitical rivalries. But the alternatives \u2013 unchecked competition and environmental degradation \u2013 are worse.<\/p>\n

The return to the Moon offers a sense of possibility. It is natural to be captivated by the engineering, the scale and the ambition of it. But the more consequential story lies beneath.<\/p>\n

As humans circle the Moon once again, the question is no longer whether we can go back, but how we choose to behave when we get there.<\/p>\n

The author acknowledges the contribution of Ronda Geise who led this research as part of her masters degree in mechanical engineering at the University of Auckland.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The four Artemis II astronauts who looped around the Moon this week are expected to splash down soon.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":391024,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[61,60,82,247],"class_list":{"0":"post-391023","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-space","8":"tag-ie","9":"tag-ireland","10":"tag-science","11":"tag-space"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/391023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=391023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/391023\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/391024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=391023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=391023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=391023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}