{"id":391807,"date":"2026-04-10T15:55:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T15:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/391807\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T15:55:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T15:55:09","slug":"exaggeration-of-real-ocean-climate-risks-to-ireland-disrupts-future-planning-says-maynooth-university-oceanographer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/391807\/","title":{"rendered":"Exaggeration of real ocean climate risks to ireland disrupts future planning, says Maynooth University oceanographer"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\"Dr<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

image:\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dr Gerard McCarthy, oceanographer at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS<\/a> (ICARUS) in the Department of Geography<\/a>, Maynooth University<\/p>\n

view more\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Credit: Maynooth University<\/p>\n

The real climate risks to Ireland from changes to the Atlantic currents that sustain our mild climate are obscured by exaggerated claims in media headlines and movies.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s according to Dr Gerard McCarthy<\/a>, a Maynooth University<\/a> (MU) oceanographer at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS<\/a> (ICARUS) in the Department of Geography<\/a>, who has led a new article for Nature Climate Change.<\/p>\n

The latest paper is a retrospective on a landmark 2015 study led by Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, which identified long-term Atlantic cooling as a sign that the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) was weakening.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe extreme climate collapse scenarios depicted in the Hollywood film, The Day After Tomorrow, and even in headlines of reputable mainstream media are often not grounded in scientific reality, but the genuine risks for Ireland are still significant and require proper planning,\u201d said Dr McCarthy.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt has happened that a new paper comes out, you get headlines saying the AMOC is going to collapse in the next few years. What we need to do is bring together a broader scientific voice to properly assess all the existing AMOC research literature, rather than having these seesawing headlines that concern and confuse our policymakers,\u201d said Dr McCarthy. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Dr McCarthy added, \u201cthe study led by Stefan Rahmstorf\u2014one of the most influential studies of AMOC\u2014used changes in sea surface temperature records stretching back over a century to build its case. The records show that the stretch of ocean lying between Ireland and Canada is the only region on Earth that has systematically cooled while almost everywhere else warmed.\u201d<\/p>\n

This retrospective paper – co-authored by Professor Hans-Otto P\u00f6rtner of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven \u2013 considered the questions raised by the Rahmstorf paper and highlighted the need for a clearer scientific consensus, setting the stage for a larger international research project called the AMOC in Focus assessment report, which Dr McCarthy is co-leading and is sponsored by JPI Ocean and JPI Climate.<\/p>\n

This project is a 60-scientist, 14-country initiative aimed at producing authoritative, usable guidance for policymakers in Europe and around the world.<\/p>\n

Regarding what AMOC changes mean for Ireland\u2019s future, Dr McCarthy said it\u2019s likely we will see relative cooling in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n

\u201cCooling is not really what I\u2019m worried about. What concerns me is changes in precipitation patterns and storminess. A weakening AMOC tightens the temperature gradient that fuels Atlantic storms, like a taut elastic band \u2013 and then more of those storms get catapulted towards Ireland. Ireland sits right at the end of this system. We are hugely dependent on the heat it transports, so we need a clear consensus voice, grounded in science, to plan properly,\u201d said Dr McCarthy.<\/p>\n

Dr McCarthy is an expert on AMOC; the system of ocean currents, sometimes known as the Gulf Stream System, that is critical to Ireland\u2019s temperate climate, despite it being at a similar latitude to southern Alaska.<\/p>\n

He also co-chairs the ongoing AMOC in Focus assessment, which brings together leading scientists from across Europe, Canada, and the USA to assess the likelihood and risks of a potential disruption to the Atlantic Ocean\u2019s circulation system and its associated implications for climate, ecosystems, people, and the economy.<\/p>\n

Method of Research<\/p>\n

Observational study<\/p>\n

Subject of Research<\/p>\n

Not applicable<\/p>\n

Article Title<\/p>\n

Atlantic exceptionalism in the twentieth century<\/p>\n

Article Publication Date<\/p>\n

10-Apr-2026<\/p>\n

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"image:\u00a0 Dr Gerard McCarthy, oceanographer at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS) in the Department of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":391808,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[61,60,43],"class_list":{"0":"post-391807","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ireland","8":"tag-ie","9":"tag-ireland","10":"tag-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/391807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=391807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/391807\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/391808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=391807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=391807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=391807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}