{"id":393255,"date":"2026-04-11T12:57:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T12:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/393255\/"},"modified":"2026-04-11T12:57:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T12:57:20","slug":"grim-new-economic-numbers-highlight-how-trump-is-losing-leverage-against-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/393255\/","title":{"rendered":"Grim new economic numbers highlight how Trump is losing leverage against Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n The week began with President Donald Trump saber-rattling like we\u2019ve never seen before. He threatened apparent war crimes<\/a> and to end a \u201cwhole civilization\u201d if Iran didn\u2019t meet his demands.\n <\/p>\n

\n It is ending with Trump looking like he\u2019s losing leverage, out of ideas \u2014 and increasingly anxious for an offramp.\n <\/p>\n

\n The economic news Friday was especially grim for Trump\u2019s ability to keep prosecuting this war and drive a hard bargain with Iran in upcoming negotiations. Let\u2019s briefly recap:\n <\/p>\n

The oil shock created by the ongoing logjam in the Strait of Hormuz pushed inflation up 0.9% in March alone, which was the highest one-month jump in nearly four years.<\/p>\n

Inflation is now at 3.3% on an annualized basis, which is the highest rate since Trump became president<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The price of gasoline rose 21.2% in March, which was a record<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The much-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment index \u2014 a measure of how confident Americans are in the economy \u2014 just hit a record low<\/a>, in data stretching back to 1952.<\/p>\n

\n And perhaps most troubling for Trump, this could just be the beginning. As CNN\u2019s David Goldman notes<\/a>, the oil shock means inflation is likely to keep rising for months, even if the war is brought to a quick end and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened (if the war continues and the strait doesn\u2019t open in the next several weeks, this could get much uglier).\n <\/p>\n

\n That means a gloomy economic outlook could come dangerously close to the November election, when Republicans already face an uphill battle to keep control of the House.\n <\/p>\n

\n Undoubtedly, that creates pressure on Trump to cut a deal to end the war and reopen the strait. And that reduces his leverage in Iran negotiations \u2014 a reality that\u2019s been reflected by Trump\u2019s recent behavior.\n <\/p>\n

\n The ceasefire announcement Tuesday spurred plenty of debate about whether Trump had backed down \u2014 or, in the parlance of the day, TACO\u2019d<\/a>. He had set a deadline for 8 p.m. ET for Iran to agree to a deal and reopen the strait; otherwise, he was supposedly going to attack Iranian infrastructure in ways that, as Trump put it, would end a civilization.\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s looking more and more like the ceasefire was rather hastily assembled in the name of avoiding making good on that promise.\n <\/p>\n

\n For one, the two sides can\u2019t even seem to agree on the terms of the ceasefire<\/a>. They\u2019ve offered very different versions of events on some of the central issues. That includes what Iranian 10-point plan is supposed to guide the negotiations, whether Iran gets temporary control of the strait and if Israel stopping its strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon were part of the deal.\n <\/p>\n

\n In the aftermath, Trump and his team have appeared more anxious than Iran is to cut a deal \u2014 willing to give Iran more leeway on two major problems, as Tehran officials repeatedly threaten to walk away.\n <\/p>\n

\n One is that Israel kept hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Iran and Pakistan say violates the ceasefire (the US and Israel dispute this). Iran is the primary sponsor of Hezbollah, providing the terrorist group with substantial financial and military assistance.\n <\/p>\n

\n Second is that the Strait of Hormuz is decidedly not very open<\/a> \u2013 despite Trump\u2019s having said the ceasefire was contingent on \u201cthe COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n But the two sides have responded to these apparent stumbling blocks in very different ways.\n <\/p>\n

\n On Lebanon, the Trump administration has tried to massage the issue away. Vice President JD Vance suggested the dispute over whether those continued attacks were violating the ceasefire was a mere \u201cmisunderstanding.\u201d And after Iran demanded that Israel back down in Lebanon, Trump personally appealed<\/a> to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to smooth things over.\n <\/p>\n

\n There\u2019s more evidence that Iran has directly flouted the terms of the ceasefire when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the Trump administration\u2019s tone on the issue has been fairly forgiving at times and certainly hasn\u2019t approached the tenor of the president\u2019s threats earlier this week.\n <\/p>\n

\n The day after the ceasefire was announced, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked about nearly nonexistent traffic through the strait. She replied that \u201cprivately\u201d they had seen an \u201cuptick\u201d and that it would \u201ctake time\u201d for ships to begin crossing the waterway in large numbers again.\n <\/p>\n

\n By Thursday, Trump was starting to get frustrated, saying on social media that Iran was \u201cdoing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say<\/a>, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.\u201d But even that allows that maybe Iran is just failing rather than flouting the deal.\n <\/p>\n

\n Trump added Friday that the Iranians \u201chave no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n But if Iran has no cards, the Trump administration has a funny way of showing it.\n <\/p>\n

\n Perhaps the most telling aspect of the situation right now is that Iran has repeatedly threatened to walk away from the negotiating table in ways the Trump administration has not.\n <\/p>\n

\n On Friday, the administration was still sending Vance to Pakistan for in-person negotiations, despite Iran\u2019s apparent noncompliance in the Strait of Hormuz. While Vance was aboard Air Force Two, the Iranian representative, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said in a statement on X that the Lebanon situation and another issue must be solved \u201cbefore negotiations begin<\/a>.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n The combined picture is that one side (Trump) appears a lot more anxious to negotiate a deal than the other side (Iran) does. This despite Trump initially having said the war would only end with Iran\u2019s \u201cunconditional surrender.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n It makes sense in context.\n <\/p>\n

\n Iran has surely taken a beating militarily. But economically, its ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz gives the country an upper hand.\n <\/p>\n

\n In fact, setting the precedent of locking down the strait is theoretically a huge deterrent for future attacks against the country. Strategically, Tehran officials have good reason to dig in.\n <\/p>\n

\n By contrast, this war was always on the clock in the United States. The American people never had much interest in it in the first place (in part because Trump never bothered to make the case for it or build a base of support). And Americans have shown little interest in Trump\u2019s repeated demands that they embrace short-term pain<\/a> for long-term gain.\n <\/p>\n

\n The meager support for the war has only lessened as negative economic news compounds. And Republicans are increasingly worried about the fallout costing them dearly in the 2026 midterms.\n <\/p>\n

\n That doesn\u2019t mean Trump will fold \u2014 and there are plenty of reasons this could drag on. He might ultimately feel compelled to drive a hard bargain. At the top of that list is his relationship with Israel, which won\u2019t want to let an antagonistic regional power get off easy.\n <\/p>\n

\n But as US officials head to Pakistan for negotiations, it doesn\u2019t look like Trump\u2019s extraordinary threats bought him the leverage he wanted.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The week began with President Donald Trump saber-rattling like we\u2019ve never seen before. He threatened apparent war crimes…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":393256,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[72,113,61,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-393255","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-ie","11":"tag-ireland"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=393255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393255\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/393256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=393255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=393255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=393255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}